Oscar Piastri is the Formula 1 championship leader but title rival Lando Norris is on the ascendency, having won the past two grands prix.
The McLaren team-mates headed into the last month’s Austrian Grand Prix separated by 22 points after Norris retired in Canada having crashed into Piastri.
But the Briton has impressively bounced back by winning at the Red Bull Ring, and then his home race at Silverstone, to now trail Piastri by only eight points.
All the momentum therefore seems to be with Norris, but is his form sustainable especially when the British GP win was largely down to Piastri being penalised for his antics behind the safety car whilst leading?
Nevertheless, it all makes for an intriguing title battle with 12 rounds remaining this year. So, our writers debate who is currently favourite to clinch their maiden F1 championship in 2025.
Norris seems to have momentum, but only for now – Stuart Codling
It feels as if the front-suspension tweak McLaren introduced for Norris in Canada turned his MCL39 into the car with which he should have started the season. He might downplay its impact on his recent uptick in form, preferring to credit a refreshed approach to his mental and physical preparations – but here we are entering the realm of marginal gains.
Earlier this season Norris talked about not “clicking” with the car, alluding to a lack of feel at the limit – the MCL39 wasn’t adequately telegraphing the threshold of grip. Just as noteworthy was Norris’s body language after those races and qualifying sessions where he felt his performance wasn’t up to scratch because of this: disconsolate, slump-shouldered, defeated.
Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Zak Brown, McLaren
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
That pattern continued until Monaco where the evidence of Norris taking a new approach was there for all to see – and hear – as he was coached around the track in qualifying, took pole position, and won. But would this kind of approach be sustainable week in, week out? Piastri got the better of him again in Spain…
McLaren had been holding off on evaluating the alternative suspension geometry because it is believed to offer less pronounced anti-dive properties (team personnel would only allude vaguely to there being negatives as well as positives to the new configuration). Piastri decided against using it because of this, feeling that he didn’t need what Norris clearly required – this is probably a factor of driving style, since Norris likes to trail the brakes into corners, asking more of the front axle with the combined forces.
Fundamentally Norris needed more confidence in the front end, particularly over a single lap in qualifying, where any deficit to Piastri almost inevitably carries forward into a sub-optimal race result. There are never any ‘magic bullet’ solutions in F1, but it seems this marginal gain is working in combination with all the other processes he’s initiated to boost his confidence.
Nevertheless, if it doesn’t come together in the coming weekends then Norris might well start to doubt himself again…
Piastri just keeps a cooler head – Ben Vinel
Composure might be the key factor as the McLaren drivers vie for a maiden F1 title.
Their head-to-head has been pretty even in terms of pure pace so far, even though Piastri has a slight edge in qualifying – the Australian is 0.088s faster on average, leading 9-5 across all sessions, including sprint qualifying.
But even that metric is flawed by the fact that Norris has a tendency to make mistakes under pressure, including a Q3 crash at Jeddah.
Lando Norris, McLaren
Photo by: James Sutton / Motorsport Images via Getty Images
More recently, in Canada, Norris’ errors landed him his second-worst qualifying result of the season in seventh, half a second adrift of Piastri, and he went on to cause an unnecessary collision with his team-mate in the race.
When things go well for Norris, he is a formidable racer and a force to be reckoned with, as shown by his impeccable Austrian Grand Prix weekend. But Piastri has proven to be more consistent so far – and his unshakeable mindset might be all the more unsettling for Norris.
Momentum is with Norris right now with consecutive wins at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone, but the latter was mainly the product of a lapse of judgement from Piastri under the safety car, with this mammoth deceleration that landed him a costly 10-second penalty.
Always open about his mental health, Norris says he feels less anxious and more confident. Now is the time to prove it.
Norris favourite for F1 title after impressive bounce back from Canada – Mark Mann-Bryans
Up until two races ago, the only answer I think both myself and all of my esteemed colleagues would have given when asked this question was ‘Piastri’.
The level-headed Australian seemed to have the edge over Norris, who had just rammed unceremoniously into the back of his team-mate at the Canadian Grand Prix to lose further ground in the title race.
But, seemingly, Norris gave his head a bit of a wobble after the Montreal mistake, and he has come out fighting. He was untouchable in Austria, sitting out FP1 before jumping straight into his McLaren and leading the way for the remainder of the weekend.
Lando Norris, McLaren
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
It was no flash in the pan, either, as he followed that up with victory at Silverstone in his home grand prix – there are caveats required for the British Grand Prix success that were not needed in Austria, but Norris was still in the right place to pick up the pieces following Piastri’s penalty.
That is why, for me, at the moment Norris is the slight favourite, the points gap is negligible and could be overturned quite easily in Spa should Piastri again finish behind his title rival on the other side of the papaya divide. Whichever way it goes, it will be intriguing to see if the two can remain cordial as the battle goes down to the wire.
Piastri remains favourite by a landslide – Owen Bellwood
Norris is on an impressive run right now, winning back-to-back races in Austria and Great Britain. But, the major reason that we’re all excited about his double victories is because it’s a relative anomaly in his season so far – and it follows that fateful crash in Canada.
His wins at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone were his third and fourth wins in 2025, and while Norris has shown flashes of brilliance through the year, it’s his Australian team-mate who is really in control of the standings.
Piastri had his blip at the opening race in Australia, but since then has been the McLaren to beat. He seems to be more consistent on track, more in tune with his MCL39 and, key to becoming a future world champion, more confident in his abilities.
Silverstone was an off day for the Aussie, which still saw him finish on the podium. So, I’m confident that he will be able to come back from this strong in Spa, where he’ll hold on to his title lead and won’t let go for the remaining 12 races on the F1 calendar.
After all, calmer heads prevail, right?
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