It’s time for a little bit math lesson to go together with an NFL playoff image breakdown for the Seattle Seahawks.
Sure, dropping badly to the Inexperienced Bay Packers whereas Geno Smith suffered a (fortunately, not critical) knee damage actually sucked. However Seattle nonetheless could make the playoffs by successful out, and certainly with the best set of outcomes may clinch the NFC West in Week 17. For those who’re right here to say “Seattle has no shot to make the playoffs” then be at liberty to click on on different content material, as a result of this text just isn’t for you.
At present we’re specializing in one particular situation that’s contingent upon the Seahawks beating the Minnesota Vikings, dropping to the Chicago Bears (significantly), and the Los Angeles Rams successful in opposition to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. If the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18, that might put each groups at 10-7, and the highest 4 tiebreakers in a division race wouldn’t separate them.
Division Tiebreakers
Head-to-head (Seahawks and Rams could be 1-1).
Finest won-lost-tied share in video games performed throughout the division (each could be 4-2)
Finest won-lost-tied share in frequent video games (each could be 8-6)
Finest won-lost-tied share in video games performed throughout the convention (each could be 6-6).
So what occurs when these tiebreakers are exhausted?
That’s the place “power of victory” is available in.
Brian Nemhauser aka Hawkblogger famous the worth of beating the Vikings however NOT the Bears.
The Seahawks path to the playoffs nearly definitely requires a win in opposition to the Rams, however the subsequent two video games are usually not equal.
Beating the Vikings would give the Seahawks a power of victory tiebreaker over Rams even when they drop the Bears recreation. Beating CHI, lose to MIN doesn’t.
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) December 17, 2024
For those who use the ESPN playoff machine, Brian is 100% right that Seattle would have the SOV tiebreaker. Nonetheless, that is additionally a dynamic stat and may change relying on the W-L information of the groups overwhelmed.
Not like non-divisional opponents, SOV is definitely simpler to find out when evaluating two groups from the identical division. Below the parameters beforehand urged within the article, we are able to evaluate which groups the Seahawks and Rams have overwhelmed.
Seattle Seahawks wins (beneath hypothetical situation)
Minnesota Vikings Los Angeles Rams Denver BroncosAtlanta Falcons Arizona Cardinals (2x)San Francisco 49ers (1x)Miami Dolphins New York Jets New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams wins (beneath hypothetical situation)
Minnesota VikingsBuffalo Payments Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals (1x) San Francisco 49ers (2x)New Orleans Saints New York Jets New England PatriotsLas Vegas Raiders
Observe: As 99-percent-sure famous within the feedback, divisional sweeps rely as double within the SOV tiebreaker, so the Rams would have a sweep over the 49ers and the Seahawks would have one over the Cardinals. The article has been amended for readability.
You is perhaps inclined to calculate the full win share for Seattle and Los Angeles. This isn’t needed. Focus solely on the non-common opponents (plus Seattle having an additional win over Arizona and LAR having yet one more win over the 49ers) and that’s all that issues; consider it like simplifying a math equation by cancelling out equal numbers/variables.
Seahawks’ non-common opponent wins: Dolphins, Broncos, FalconsRams’ non-common opponent wins: Saints, Raiders, Payments
Seahawks frequent opponent division wins: Cardinals +1Rams frequent opponent division wins: 49ers +1
Calculating percentages just isn’t required because the variety of groups concerned for the Seahawks and Rams is equal. Miami, Denver, Arizona, and Atlanta have a mixed 29 wins, whereas the Saints, Raiders, 49ers, and Payments have solely a mixed 24 wins. All of the Seahawks want if for the Dolphins/Broncos/Falcons/Cardinals quarter to be a minimum of 5 video games higher over the rest of the season than the Saints/Raiders/Payments/49ers with a purpose to lock up the SOV tiebreaker. The Saints and Raiders play one another, which is a bonus to Seattle understanding a kind of groups can’t win out.
That is additionally why beating the Vikings is so essential and why dropping to Minnesota and beating the Chicago Bears does little or no for Seattle. Chicago’s horrible file makes it inconceivable to beat an SOV tiebreaker.
The Seahawks have been burned by this tiebreaker final season
The rationale why the Seahawks missed the playoffs in 2023 was an inferior SOV to the Inexperienced Bay Packers. In reality, we wrote about it previous to Week 18! Not having sufficient high quality wins put them out of the playoffs in any case different tiebreakers with Inexperienced Bay have been an identical.
The whole lot I simply wrote may very well be rendered moot if, say, the Rams lose to the Cardinals (and thus can’t win a division tiebreaker in the event that they lose to the Seahawks) or the Seahawks lose their subsequent two video games, however what I outlined just isn’t implausible.
