Will the Rams trade Matthew Stafford?
Stafford and the Rams are in another contractual standoff, with Los Angeles giving their quarterback permission to seek a trade. Stafford is set to earn $27m next season, putting him way behind the highest earners at the position. According to reports, Stafford is looking for a new two-year, $110m deal from the Rams that slices the difference between Dak Prescott (who will earn $60m in 2025) and Trevor Lawrence ($52m).
Stafford is coming off an up-and-down season and the 37-year-old has dealt with multiple injuries over the past two seasons. Still, Stafford holds plenty of cards. He has dangled the threat of retirement before, unwilling to play on without what he deems an appropriate contract. Given the state of the quarterback market, Stafford knows he has a final chance to cash in. Outside Sam Darnold, there are few quarterbacks available who are real needle movers.
Publicly, the Rams say that they want Stafford back. But if someone is willing to pony up, then the Rams may let Stafford walk and recover a first-round pick. If Stafford cannot command top of the market value, then the Rams can bring him back on a new deal that inoculates the team against an injury or further decline.
The list of potential suitors is long. The Raiders, Steelers, Browns and Giants have already discussed terms with Stafford, with the Giants and Raiders leading the way according to the Athletic. You can add the Titans, Jets and the Colts to the list of quarterback-needy teams who may take a run at a veteran this offseason. Even at his advanced age, Stafford showed last season that he would be a significant upgrade for all those teams. Whether anyone is willing to put more than $100m on the table – and a valuable draft pick – for two years of a player approaching 40 is an open question.
Will the league ban the ‘Brotherly Shove’?
The Packers have proposed a ban on the shove play synonymous with the Eagles. Green Bay’s proposal has plenty of support from the coaching ranks, who took to the podiums at the scouting combine in Indianapolis this week to bemoan the supposedly unstoppable play.
Philly’s variation differs from other short-yardage sneaks, in which one player takes the ball and tries to dive for a first down. Instead the Eagles plant two teammates behind quarterback Jalen Hurts, have him dive forward and then drive him from behind to churn out first yards or scores. Over the last three seasons, it has become the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport.
Critics bemoan the play is dangerous or “not football”. Others see it as the game’s most physical play, a throwback to an earlier, tougher era. Bills coach Sean McDermott, who sits on the league’s competition committee, says that the push – and how defenses are forced to defend it – is a safety concern. “I just feel like player safety and the health and safety of our players has to be at the top of our game,” McDermott said. “It’s just that play to me [is] potentially contrary to the health and safety of the players.”
McDermott’s argument is flimsy. The play looks dangerous, but it has been run so infrequently that the league doesn’t have solid data on the injury rates compared to any other single play. Also: it’s the NFL, there is an injury risk on every play, including traditional sneaks or runs that turn into rugby-style scrums.
Green Bay’s proposal smacks of trying to outlaw a strategy because one team has become too dominant at running it. The Eagles have successfully run the shove not because it’s a cheat code but because Hurts, who has incredibly strong legs, can push through a brick wall of defenders in a way other quarterbacks cannot. If it was a hack, the other 31 teams would all run it at the same rate as the Eagles and have similar success. But they don’t.
What next for Aaron Rodgers?
Huzzah! Prepare for another season of Rodgers headlines. Retirement seems off the table for the quarterback. There will be no podcast, gubernatorial run or a self-branded sun cream that keeps away space lasers – for now. After his release from the Jets becomes official, Rodgers will be free to canvass the market as a free agent for the first time in his career.
The list of takers will be short. At 41, coming off a disastrous spell in New York, with all the noise and nonsense that swirls around him, quarterback-needy teams will probably look to the draft rather than drop Rodgers into their locker room. More than likely, Rodgers will sign a deal as a one-year bridge starter, whether to try to help reignite a fallen franchise or give a pseudo-contender the illusion that they can make a playoff run.
The two likeliest teams to pull the trigger are the Raiders and Steelers. Vegas are all-in on trying to manufacture a winner quickly. Tom Brady is running the show, and his key decisions early in the offseason were to hire 73-year-old Pete Carroll as head coach and to retain the team’s defensive staff. Most of us know the Raiders are not a quarterback away from competing in the AFC, but every move and leak about their offseason suggests they believe they are.
If not the Raiders, then the Steelers make sense. Neither Russell Wilson or Justin Fields are viable short- or long-term options. Wilson was better in spurts than Rodgers last year, but the Steelers could talk themselves into Rodgers having a swansong in a better environment.
The Rams are another option. If they trade Stafford, they will be in the market for a veteran quarterback. Trying to pinch Darnold in free agency would be their likeliest option, but Rodgers would be a solid enough fallback plan. He would be a stopgap that would allow the Rams to extend their championship window by another year.
Rodgers will reportedly bring Davante Adams with him to his next spot, meaning that if the Rams dealt Stafford away and signed Rodgers to a one-year deal they would effectively be getting Rodgers, Adams and draft picks for the price they would have paid to retain Stafford. In a normal world, you could talk yourself into that being a savvy deal. But in Rodgers’s world, where you have to deal with the off-field noise and his diminished play, that isn’t a deal worth making.
Rodgers finished 22nd in EPA/play last season, sitting behind the likes of Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Remove garbage time, and Rodgers fell to 29th in the league, behind Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew. He no longer moves the same way, limiting the off-script creativity that made him the exceptional player he was in his prime. Last season, he looked immobile, hesitant to pull the trigger and fell apart when pressured. His on-field production is no longer worth the off-field chaos. But the Rams, Steelers or Raiders may be desperate enough to give him a final chance if the quarterback merry-go-round spins out of their control.
Trades, trades, trades
Every draft prognosticator says this year’s class is weak. The free-agency crop is thin on difference-makers. That means one thing: prepare yourself for trades.
The NFL is about to enter its NBA era, with some of the biggest names in the sport potentially on the move this offseason. The list of players who have already requested trades or who have been floated as being available by their franchise is as glitzy as it gets: Stafford, Cousins, Myles Garrett, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, D’Andre Swift, Trey Hendrickson, Garrett Wilson, Kyle Pitts, DK Metcalf and Tyrann Mathieu could all be on the move. A year ago, that looked like an All-Pro roster. Now all of them are, to varying degrees, available for the price of a draft pick or two. Some of those are shiny names rather than impact players at this stage of their careers. But there are still gamechangers available at the most important positions on the trade block.
No single offseason move could be as decisive as where Garrett lands. He requested a trade in early February, but the Browns have refused to engage in any serious trade talks for the All-Pro. Will they eventually acquiesce? If so, what will the cost be to land the best pass-rusher in the NFL, at the apex of his power? Can a Super Bowl contender – the Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Packers or Ravens – find enough wriggle room in their salary cap to put a deal together?
Garrett says he would rather win a Lombardi than make the Hall of Fame. If the best defensive player in the league can force his way out of Cleveland, it will upend the championship race.
Will the Bengals go all-in?
The Bengals are at a crossroads. Do they run it back with their current core or let a pair of stars leave and retool their roster? Wide receiver Tee Higgins is a free agent. Hendrickson, the team’s only impactful defensive lineman, requested a trade last offseason and is expected to ask out again if he isn’t offered a new contract.
The ballooning salary cap has given Cincy a chance to retain their key players and add much-needed talent along the offensive and defensive lines … if they’re open to finagling the contracts of their big earners. Such a move, however, would require a notoriously cheap franchise to stump up money they’ve been unwilling to invest in the past.
If Higgins is allowed to hit free agency, he will be the top receiver on the market. And if the team is willing to trade Hendrickson, they will be left hunting for any kind of sizzle in their pass-rush.
Letting both players leave would knock them out of contention in 2025, at a time when Burrow has ascended to a Hall of Fame level. Now is the time for the Bengals to push all their chips in on Burrow, retain their core, open up some cap room and refashion their defense to try to squeeze through a crowded AFC. But that would require a radical shift in philosophy.
Burrow has put public pressure on the team, which may force their hand. “We all want to stay together, so we want to make it work,” Burrow said early in the offseason. “You don’t want to make a living out of letting great players leave the building.”
The Bengals will enter free agency with the eighth-highest cap space and could open up plenty more with crafty contractual moves. But they are a franchise that has operated in a silo for 30 years. They rely on the draft. They let expensive players walk. They’re comfortable pushing for a playoff spot, and are fine if they fall short. But if they cheap out this offseason, they will continue to squander the career of an all-time great.
