The primary spherical of the draft Thursday evening was dominated by quarterbacks with six going within the first spherical. That is probably the most in any spherical of the widespread draft period (since 1967).
Whereas Caleb Williams going No. 1 to the Chicago Bears was no shock, there was some suspense about who would go second to the Washington Commanders.
Washington selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels whereas North Carolina’s Drake Maye went third to the New England Patriots.
As soon as the Atlanta Falcons took Michael Penix, Jr. at No. 8, it turned the primary time within the widespread draft period that 4 quarterbacks have been chosen within the first eight total picks.
Current historical past suggests these QBs won’t be introduced alongside step by step. Of the 23 quarterbacks drafted within the high 5 within the earlier 15 years, 17 of them began in Week 1, in accordance with ESPN Stats & Info. Nineteen of them began a minimum of 10 video games of their rookie seasons.
Here’s a have a look at the quarterbacks who have been picked within the first spherical, what their rookie projections are and which professional QB is one of the best comparability. This file shall be up to date all through the evening.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,388 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 13 interceptions, 269 dashing yards, 3 dashing TDs.
Intel: Williams’ elite improvisational expertise, arm power and talent to select defenses other than throughout the pocket set him other than the remainder of the 2024 class. He has the foot pace to evade pass-rushers in tight areas and the power to interrupt tackles. His means to increase performs, alter his arm angle and make correct off-platform throws places nice stress on defenses on every snap. Williams can be a affected person pocket passer who will get by way of his progressions given time and area. He presses and tries to make an excessive amount of occur on some performs however has uncommon playmaking instincts; he can get away with some questionable selections. — Steve Muench
Match: Williams’ ability set would permit him to be a terrific slot in any offense, however the Bears’ setup particularly stands out with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s love for the deep ball. Waldron will scheme up deep pictures to DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett are all bodily sufficient to beat man protection on beneath routes for Williams. And if all else fails, Williams shall be free to make use of his legs within the Chicago system; he scored 27 dashing touchdowns over the previous three seasons. Briefly, the match is excellent. — Matt Miller
Rookie starter? Sure. Williams has successfully been QB1 in Chicago because the day Justin Fields was traded to Pittsburgh on March 18. The Bears want a quarterback whose play will elevate the gamers round him. The bar is low, however the Bears have by no means had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards and/or 30 touchdowns in a season. Williams needs to be anticipated to achieve these thresholds early in his NFL profession whereas being tasked with placing the Bears on a playoff trajectory. — Courtney Cronin
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Aaron Rodgers
Key stat: He had 16 completions of a minimum of 20 yards when on the transfer in 2023, probably the most in FBS, and his completion share on passes thrown 20+ yards was 53%, the third-best in FBS.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,447 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 578 dashing yards, 5 dashing TDs
Intel: He will get the ball out shortly when he likes the pre-snap look. He will get by way of his progressions given time and flashes nice anticipation throwing over the center. His completion share has steadily improved over the previous 4 seasons, and he is correct on tape. Daniels additionally extends performs, and he is one of the crucial harmful runners within the class no matter place. He is fast, has good contact stability and exhibits pull-away pace. — Steve Muench
Match: The Commanders had 21 interceptions final season and traded Sam Howell to Seattle in March, leaving an enormous gap at QB. Daniels has the mobility, accuracy and decision-making to thrive in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme. His means exterior of construction will place much less stress on a Washington offensive line that allowed 65 sacks final season, tied for the second-most within the NFL. And he’ll match properly with extensive receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? Heck sure. The actual query shall be whether or not he begins from Day 1 or not, however contemplating Washington just isn’t in a must-win yr it may afford to begin a rookie quarterback straight away. The Commanders have a brand new proprietor, normal supervisor and coach and have a long-term plan to show across the group. Washington signed Marcus Mariota as a backup in free company, and normal supervisor Adam Peters stated they have been wonderful with letting him begin if a rookie wasn’t prepared. However a part of the enchantment for Daniels is that his means to flee stress due to his pace and quickness permits him to make an influence sooner than most rookie quarterbacks. — John Keim
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Lamar Jackson
Key stat: He’s the one participant in FBS historical past with 12,000 profession passing yards and three,000 profession dashing yards.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,361 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 330 dashing yards, 2 dashing TDs
Intel: Maye extends performs, locates receivers late, adjusts his arm angle when needed and makes spectacular off-platform throws. He is robust and prepared to take successful to make a play, and he routinely makes performs below duress. Maye can thread the needle and lead receivers to yards after the catch when his footwork is sound, and he throws with a powerful base from throughout the pocket. He is a risk to scramble for first downs, too, and choose up yards on designed quarterback runs. — Steve Muench
Match: With Mac Jones traded, the Patriots needed to discover a quarterback to construct round. We do not know precisely what Alex Van Pelt’s offense will seem like in New England, however the best-case state of affairs is that Maye sits behind veteran Jacoby Brissett for a minimum of a part of the 2024 season and retains creating. Maye’s arm power, pocket toughness, mobility and poise are all wonderful traits that may match into any NFL offense, and with deep threats like Kendrick Bourne and Ok.J. Osborn on the roster, his arm expertise will shine in Foxboro Stadium. — Miller
Rookie starter? Not essentially straight away. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal within the offseason to supply management, mentorship, and a “bridge” choice so any rookie would not be rushed onto the sector. — Mike Reiss
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Justin Herbert
Key stat: His 9,076 whole yards within the final two seasons have been the second-most within the FBS.
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Why Michael Penix Jr. is able to show the doubters flawed
Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. is able to give every thing he is obtained as he enters the 2024 NFL draft.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 451 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 21 dashing yards, 0 dashing TDs (2 begins)
Intel: Penix Jr. is a left-handed quarterback with excellent arm power who led the nation in passing yards per sport every of the previous two seasons. He reads safeties and acknowledges alternatives to assault downfield. He can manipulate the protection together with his eyes. Penix missed important time with accidents earlier in his profession, elevating issues about his long-term sturdiness, however he performed in each sport over the previous two seasons. — Steve Muench
Match: Penix’s arm power and deep-ball accuracy are among the many finest on this class. With an offense that’s now led by Kirk Cousins, Penix is the succession plan in case Cousins does not return to type after struggling a torn Achilles final season. Penix excelled on passes exterior of the numbers as he completed with 2,295 yards, however struggled when compelled to maneuver off his spots. Penix will not be compelled to play straight away and enters right into a state of affairs right here he can sit and study. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? One would think about Cousins is locked into the beginning quarterback position for the subsequent three years. With that stated, Cousins is 35 years previous and is coming off a torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season in Minnesota. Maybe there are issues about his well being, or possibly the Falcons simply needed a younger quarterback to study below the veteran for a number of years, a la Jordan Love in Inexperienced Bay. Nevertheless, Love is 25 years previous now. Penix turns 24 in two weeks. — Marc Raimondi
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Tua Tagovailoa
Key stat: He led FBS with 4,903 passing yards in 2023, and he was second in FBS in 2022 with 4,641 passing yards. He’s the primary participant with 4,500 passing yards in consecutive seasons since Patrick Mahomes in 2015-16 for Texas Tech.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,535 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 197 dashing yards, 2 dashing TDs (14 begins)
Intel: McCarthy completed his school profession with a 27-1 report as a starter. He can throw into tight home windows towards zone seems to be and full passes towards press-man protection due to his anticipation, accuracy and arm power. He retains his eyes downfield and makes some spectacular throws even when he is aware of he’ll take an enormous hit. McCarthy additionally extends performs and throws properly on the run. He has a very good really feel for when to scramble, and he is a risk to run for first downs on designed quarterback rushes. — Steve Muench
Match: McCarthy enters a near-perfect state of affairs. With a wealth of playmakers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, McCarthy can have success early in his profession. Along with his effectivity on third down (67% completion share) and off play-action (76%), he is a really perfect slot in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Sam Darnold being on the roster additionally means McCarthy will not be compelled to play straight away if Minnesota opts to let him develop a little bit extra. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? The Vikings will put him into one of the best atmosphere for fulfillment amongst any of the 2024 first-round quarterback class. He’ll sit behind Sam Darnold, a minimum of initially, whereas coach Kevin O’Connell applies his appreciable quarterback growth expertise. McCarthy can even be in good palms with new quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. And when he does get on the sector, McCarthy may have a terrific array of ability gamers round him, from extensive receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to operating again Aaron Jones and tight finish T.J. Hockenson. — Kevin Seifert
Key stat: His 67.6% profession completion share is one of the best in Michigan college historical past — with a minimal of 200 makes an attempt — and his 72.3% completion share in 2023 was the sixth-best within the FBS and set a Michigan single-season report.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,076 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 154 dashing yards, 1 dashing TD (14 begins)
Intel: He developed right into a sound decision-maker over the course of his school profession, and he threw simply three interceptions in 2023. He will get the ball out shortly and is an efficient level guard when he will get a clear pre-snap learn. Nix can get by way of progressions and discover the open man given time and area. He extends performs, finds receivers late and makes off-platform throws. And Nix is efficient operating designed rollouts; he is a risk to scramble for first downs. — Steve Muench
Match: With Jarrett Stidham and newly acquired Zach Wilson as the highest quarterbacks on the Broncos’ roster, Nix enters right into a state of affairs the place he may discover early snaps. With 61 profession begins throughout his school profession — probably the most in FBS historical past — Nix will mesh properly into coach Sean Payton’s offense. Oregon’s offense was predominantly run-pass choice and there shall be an adjustment interval for him as he enters into a tricky AFC West. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? It will likely be intriguing to see what sort of timeline Sean Payton has in thoughts for Nix. In his long term in New Orleans, Payton by no means had a rookie quarterback on the roster chosen larger than the third spherical and by no means had a rookie quarterback who was realistically anticipated to play any time quickly given Drew Brees’ long term behind middle. — Jeff Legwold
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Dak Prescott
Key stat: Nix broke the NCAA single-season report for completion share (77.4%) and led the FBS in whole touchdowns (45 passing TDs, six dashing TDs) in 2023.
