The NCAA Midwest Region could quietly become the most compelling in the bracket. Headlined by No. 1 seed Houston Cougars, the region also features tournament mainstay Gonzaga and two of the most threatening Mid-Majors in the entire field.
That’s not to mention No. 2 seed Tennessee, which enters the tournament coming off an appearance in the SEC Final, or the Vols’ SEC cohort Texas, who is hoping to advance from a First Four Midwest matchup against Xavier.
Can Houston Make It Back To The NCAA Final Four?
Houston has been one of the three best programs of the decade so far in college basketball, making a Final Four appearance in 2021. In addition, the Cougars finished in the top 3 in KenPom in each of the last four seasons. Ironically, all of Kelvin Sampson’s teams since that 2021 run have been stronger by the metrics. However, they’ve fallen short of a return to the biggest stage in the sport.
Houston returned to the Elite 8 in 2022 before losing in the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed in each of the last two seasons. Houston is again a number one seed, but their path won’t be easy. The team will most likely face a Gonzaga squad that’s currently as scary as any team in the country, despite being tabbed a No. 8 seed. The Cougars are among the strongest group of one seeds in recent history, as all four rank among the six best teams in adjusted efficiency rating since 2002.
Does Defense Win Championships?
The numbers say this is the strongest Houston team in a decade of NCAA college basketball. Houston is anchored by arguably the best defense in the country, holding opponents to a national low of 58.5 points per game.
The Cougars have additionally posted their best defensive efficiency ratings of the Sampson era this season. In fact, they hold opponents to both the fourth-lowest shooting percentage (38.3 percent) and effective field goal percentage (44.9 percent). Can they escape as the top team in the NCAA Midwest?
Gonzaga’s Metrics Dwarf Resume
It’s hard to say if Gonzaga is severely underseeded, given the fact the team finished with eight defeats overall. The Bulldogs four losses in WCC play were the most they’ve suffered in the Mark Few era. Furthermore, Gonzaga ranks a trusty No. 8 overall in NET, and No.10 in KenPom with a top 10 offense. On the flip side, the Zags have a top 30 defense in adjusted efficiency. Overall, Gonzaga has been playing like the team they are on paper more recently. Gonzaga won the WCC tournament with a victory over a St. Mary’s team that’s torched the conference all season.
A potential NCAA Midwest region second round matchup between Houston and Gonzaga could have the quality and excitement of a Final Four showdown. Given the way both teams have been playing heading into March, it is going to be a battle. Historically, teams with similar metrics have performed well in the NCAA tournament. This probable matchup might just end up determining who gets the Midwest Region’s bid to San Antonio.
Live Dogs: High Point And McNeese State
The NCAA Midwest Region features two of the livest underdogs in the bracket—No. 12 seed McNeese State and No. 13 seed High Point. Underdogs, each pose a significant upset threat in their Round of 64 matchups. Plenty of people thought McNeese would be the darling No. 12 seed in last year’s NCAA tournament before its first-round loss to Gonzaga. This year, McNeese has the benefit of experience and the added magic of viral student manager Amir Khan.
On the other hand, High Point has one of the most convincing cases for an upset among any of the field’s when it faces No. 4 seed Purdue. The Panthers are one of the country’s elite offenses, ranking No. 17 in the country in scoring at 81.7 points per game. High Point has the fifth-best shooting percentage in the country, shooting an astounding 49.3 percent from the field as a team. The Panthers are No.15 in the country in 2-point field goal percentage, while Purdue ranks 350th in defending the 2-pointer.
Tennessee’s Elite Defense Could Be The Key
If Houston doesn’t have the nation’s best defense, you can sure make the case that No. 2 seed Tennessee does. The Vols certainly have college basketball’s best on-ball defender in back-to-back SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler. His backcourt mate Jahmai Mashack is also a top five best defender in all of college basketball. Together, they form a suffocating presence, even against the nation’s best guards in the SEC.
Tennessee proved it can win in perhaps the toughest conference in the history of college basketball. It’s shown so by defeating a historically dominant Auburn team to advance to the SEC Championship game. The Vols lost to Florida in the SEC Finals, but split the series in the regular season with the top seeded Gators. Tennessee earned additional victories over Alabama, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Did Texas Deserve A First Four Spot?
All things considered, Texas shouldn’t be in the NCAA tournament. With their resume, the Longhorns should have joined West Virginia and Indiana at home. Although history has shown First Four teams like the 2011 VCU Rams and 2021 UCLA Bruins deserve a spot in the bracket. With the right breaks and luck, we’ve seen quite a few upsets over the years. While Texas’ recent play has been far from inspiring, the Longhorns do have a conceivable path to an unlikely run given their draw.
The Longhorns open up with a favorable matchup in the play-in game against an Xavier team with strikingly similar metrics. Though the Longhorns have a slight edge offensively, one can imagine their tough schedule in the SEC will bode well for them against an A-10 at-large. Texas would then move on to a Round of 64 matchup against an Illinois team that suffered a 21-point loss to Wisconsin and a 43-point loss to Duke less than a month ago.
If the Longhorns managed to get by, they would likely meet No. 3 seed Kentucky in the NCAA Midwest Round of 32. That might feel like where the road would end for Texas if it even goes that far. Keep in mind, the Longhorns beat Kentucky 82-78 at home in the team’s only meeting this season. Who knows where things could go from there. Crazier things have happened.
