Determining which under-the-radar teams are primed for a March Madness run has never been an exact science. This season, however, there’s a handful of prime candidates from the mid-major ranks who could be poised to make a legitimate run by winning two games, or even three if they land in a play-in.
From a school like UC San Diego experiencing high-level basketball for the first time, to a VCU program that has already pulled off a Final Four run in this exact scenario, here are five sleeper teams that could make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.UC San Diego
The Rundown: There isn’t a more compelling story in mid-major hoops right now than UC San Diego. The Tritons have won each of their last 11 games, with 10 of those wins coming by double digits and five by 20+ points.
UC San Diego (25-4, 16-2 Big West) is ranked 35th in NET and 36th in KenPom, higher than teams such as North Carolina and Texas. The Tritons are coming off a convincing 45-point win over Cal State Fullerton on Saturday and they even have a key non-conference win over a Utah State team that was in contention for a Mountain West championship all season.
Potential Seeding: The Tritons will likely find themselves between a 10-12 seed for the NCAA Tournament, depending on how much of a statement is made in the Big West tournament next week. UC San Diego is an overwhelming favorite to capture the crown, though the Tritons’ performance throughout the season has also put them in a decent position for an at-large bid if they were to lose.
The kicker? This is only UC San Diego’s first year of NCAA Tournament eligibility. The Tritons made the transition from Division II in 2020 and completed the four-year transitionary probation at the end of last season, so this is the first UC San Diego basketball team that even has the chance to make a Cinderella run at the highest level of college basketball. The Hollywood script is already halfway written.
New Mexico
The Rundown: Last March ended in disappointment for New Mexico, but the lessons learned from that experience should bode well for Richard Pitino and the Lobos this time around.
While New Mexico (24-6, 16-3) may not have as gaudy of a roster as it did a year ago, it does have a team that is far more battle-tested and prepared for this moment. The Lobos knocked off Big 10 foes UCLA and USC and beat a VCU team primed for an Atlantic 10 championship during the non-conference slate this season. It’s certainly a far cry from last year’s schedule, where the Lobos didn’t play a single power conference opponent until they drew Clemson in the Round of 64.
Who Makes Them Go: With Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelan House out of the picture, sophomore Donovan Dent has emerged as one of the finest guards in all of college basketball and a surefire NBA prospect. Dent ranks 12th nationally in scoring with 20.4 points per game and 13th nationally with 6.5 assists per game, making him the only player in the country to even be ranked in the top 25 in both categories.
New Mexico also features the nation’s fourth leading rebounder in Nelly Junior Joseph at 11.1 boards per game. Junior Joseph also has the 11th highest individual defensive rating in the country and he brings extensive tournament experience as this will be his fourth appearance in five seasons.
Potential Seeding: The consensus among bracketologists is that New Mexico is locked into the NCAA tournament after Tuesday’s 71-67 win over Nevada that clinched the Lobos first regular season Mountain West crown since 2014. The Lobos are currently projected to be a nine seed in the tournament, so they’ll have likely have a bit better of an outlook than they did last season.
Drake
The Rundown: Drake is no stranger to March Madness. The Bulldogs will most likely be making their fourth appearance in the dance in the last five seasons, however, this season might just be the best chance they’ve had to make a legitimate run.
Drake (27-3, 17-3) didn’t lose a single game during the non-conference slate, finishing 12-0 with a Quad 1 win over Vanderbilt in addition to wins over Miami (FL), Florida Atlantic and Kansas State. The Bulldogs slipped up by losing two of their first four games in Ohio Valley Conference play, but they’ve won 15 of their last 16 games since then, with four of those wins coming in overtime. Drake is 5-0 in overtime games overall this season and its proven to be a team that is dominant under pressure, a trait that could be a game changer come March.
Potential Seeding: Like UC San Diego, Drake may have done enough to earn an at-large bid, though the Bulldogs will certainly want to win the OVC tournament after what happened to Indiana State on Selection Sunday last season.Drake’s path to winning the conference tournament won’t be easy, but coach Darian DeVries and the Bulldogs are well equipped to do so and they could be primed for a deep run into March. Drake will likely sit on the 11 or 12 line should it get in, a spot on the bracket historically ripe with upsets.
High Point
The Rundown: UC San Diego aside, you’d be hard-pressed to find a hotter team among the mid-major ranks than High Point. The Panthers have now won 11 consecutive games and the last four of those wins have been 20+ points.
High Point (26-5, 14-2) has the 25th best adjusted offensive efficiency in all of Division 1 and the Panthers rank 20th nationally scoring, averaging 81.8 points per game. High Point has scored 80+ points in each of its last six games and in nine of its last 10. The Panthers have the 25th best adjusted offensive efficiency in all of Division 1.
Who Makes Them Go: High Point is led by upperclassmen Kezza Griffa, DeMaurian Willians and Kimani Hamilton. This trio combines for about 43 of High Point’s 81.8 points per game, though the Panthers also feature a deep bench unit as 11 players average 10 or more minutes per game. High Point has the 13th best effective field goal percentage in the country at 56.6% and they rank in the top 40 nationally in both 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage.
Potential Seeding: If High Point takes care of business in the Big South tournament, it will likely be looking at a 12 or 13 seed and will be a nightmare matchup for whoever draws them.
VCU
The Rundown: Fourteen years after Shaka Smart led VCU from the First Four to the Final Four, the Rams are once again primed for a deep run into March after dominating the Atlantic 10 during the regular season.
VCU (27-5, 16-2) has won nine games in a row and will look to capture a 10th straight win in the regular season finale against Dayton on Friday. Six of those nine wins have been by 10+ points and four of them were 20+ point wins. It’s safe to say that VCU wasn’t just scraping by in what’s typically a very competitive A-10 conference.
VCU is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, holding opponents to 62.3 points per game and a 44.8 percent effective field goal percentage, both ranking in the top 10 nationally. VCU is suffocating both on the perimeter and inside the arc, holding opponents to a 30.6% 3-point field goal percentage and 44.3% 2-point field goal percentage.
Potential Seeding: VCU is expected to be a 10 or 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to most bracketologists, which is on par with the 11 seed they had during that 2011 run.
