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NBA Draft Lottery: Mavericks Win Top Pick Despite 1.8% Chance – Basketball Insiders

May 13, 2025
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Celtics’ second round prospects at #32

John Collins Exercises 2025-26 Player Option

With just a 1.8 percent chance, the Dallas Mavericks have won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.

Cooper Flagg is the consensus top selection and should serve as a major boost to Mavs fans who have been reeling from the Luka Doncic trade.

The Mavs entered the lottery with the 11th best odds, making their 10 place jump the highest by any team in lottery history. The San Antonio Spurs also made a sizable jump, moving from the eighth best odds to the second overall pick.

Already armed with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, the Spurs are faced with some interesting decisions over the next month or so. Does it look to use the second overall pick to lure Giannis Antetokounmpo to San Antonio? Or are they happy to add another young, talented piece to the core.

For all their tanking efforts, the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards came up empty. The Jazz received the fifth overall pick while the Wizards will pick sixth. The New Orleans Pelicans had the fourth best odds but will now select seventh.

These were the odds of winning the top pick entering the lottery:

14%: Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets12.5%: New Orleans Pelicans10.5%: Philadelphia 76ers (conveys to Oklahoma City Thunder if in top four)9%: Brooklyn Nets7.5%: Toronto Raptors6.0%: San Antonio Spurs3.8%: Phoenix Suns (pick conveys to Houston Rockets)3.7%: Portland Trail Blazers1.8%: Dallas Mavericks1.7%: Chicago Bulls0.8%: Sacramento Kings (pick conveys to Hawks if not top 12)0.7%: Atlanta Hawks (pick conveys to San Antonio Spurs)

Early Cooper Flagg Fit With Mavs

Flagg will slot into a starting lineup that includes Spencer Dinwiddie (at least for now), Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, and Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II.

Kyrie Irving suffered a torn ACL and is expected to miss at least the majority of next season. It will be extremely impressive if Flagg can be enough of a contributor to help keep the Mavs in the playoff hunt during his absence.

Regardless, Dallas has received a much needed injection of life. Many felt the long-term future was sacrificed in the Doncic trade but that all changes now.

With Flagg in place, this team is ready to win both now and in the future.



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Tags: basketballchancecooper flaggdraftInsidersLotterymavericksnbaNew Orleans PelicansPhiladelphia 76erspickTopUtah JazzWashington Wizardswin
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