Mookie Who? Tyler O’Neill Is the Hottest Hitter in Baseball

Tyler O’Neill didn’t take lengthy to adapt to a brand new group. Traded to the Crimson Sox in December after spending six years with the Cardinals, O’Neill claimed sole possession of a serious league report by homering on Opening Day for the fifth straight season. As we strategy the two-week mark of the season — sure, it’s early — he finds himself atop main leaderboards and has helped Boston get off to a 7-4 begin.

On Tuesday at Fenway Park, O’Neill launched a towering solo shot over the Inexperienced Monster off Orioles ace Corbin Burnes to place the Crimson Sox up 1-0 within the first inning:

The Statcast-estimated distance of 413 toes made that O’Neill’s longest of this season to date. It was his sixth homer, momentarily transferring him out of a tie with Mookie Betts, Marcell Ozuna, and Mike Trout, although Trout countered along with his sixth afterward Tuesday evening. Nonetheless, O’Neill has matched Fred Lynn’s scorching 1979 begin for probably the most homers by a Crimson Sox participant within the group’s first 11 video games of a season, doing so whereas making simply 9 begins and a pinch-hitting look. By comparability, final season O’Neill didn’t hit his sixth residence run till August 11, and completed with simply 9 in 72 video games.

O’Neill started the season by homering off Mariners reliever Cody Bolton on Opening Day in Seattle. In doing so, he broke a tie with Yogi Berra (1955–58), Gary Carter (1977–80) and Todd Hundley (1994–97) for probably the most consecutive Opening Day video games with a house run. (And also you thought you had been glad baseball was again!) He closed out the Seattle sequence with a homer off Bryce Miller on March 31, took the Angels’ Griffin Canning and José Soriano deep on April 5, then added a dinger towards Chase Silseth on April 7.

Sadly for the Crimson Sox, O’Neill’s blast on Tuesday was their solely run of the day; they misplaced 7-1. And oddly sufficient, the 28-year-old left fielder hasn’t pushed in anybody else regardless of his six residence runs, which is extra a commentary on his teammates than his personal failings; he’s 1-for-3 with a pair of walks with runners in scoring place. No matter his RBI whole, he’s swinging a very popular bat total, hitting .344/.488/.906. It’s not each day you’re miles forward of two future Corridor of Famers for the most important league lead in key classes, so we’ll observe that his slugging proportion is 126 factors forward of the second-ranked Trout, and his 276 wRC+ is 32 factors forward of the second-ranked Betts. In the meantime his on-base proportion merely leads the American League.

After all, O’Neill has performed simply 10 video games, the primary 9 of them towards the Mariners, A’s, and Angels — all on the highway — and there’s solely a lot we are able to take from that, however the primary factor is that he’s wholesome, and that’s a giant one, as a result of save for his monster 2021 season and his brawny physique (“listed at 5-foot-11 and 200 kilos, of which about 198 kilos is biceps and quads,” wrote Michael Baumann), accidents have largely outlined his profession.

Drafted by the Mariners out of a British Columbia highschool within the third spherical in 2013, O’Neill grew to become a Cardinal within the Marco Gonzales commerce 4 years later. He debuted within the majors on April 19, 2018, however spent a lot of that season and the subsequent one bouncing forwards and backwards between Triple-A and the majors, with 5 (!) journeys to the injured listing thrown in for good measure. After spending all of 2020 within the majors and on the energetic roster — and even profitable his first Gold Glove, however hitting a depressing .173/.261/.360 — he lastly received one thing near a full-length season underneath his belt in 2021, hitting .286/.352/560 (143 wRC+) with 34 homers, 15 steals, and 5.3 WAR in simply 136 video games, however accompanying that with two extra journeys to the IL. He added a second Gold Glove that 12 months, and completed eighth within the NL MVP voting, however since then he hasn’t come near replicating that season, with accidents limiting him to only 168 video games, 23 homers, a 98 wRC+ and a pair of.0 WAR throughout 2022–23, one other two-year span that included 5 journeys to the IL:

Thus the 28-year-old O’Neill entered this season having performed greater than 100 video games in a serious league season simply as soon as, and greater than 72 simply twice. Between his accidents, a crowded discipline of options, his rising price ticket, and a spat with supervisor Oliver Marmol — who publicly questioned O’Neill’s effort working the bases throughout a heavy rain final April 4 in St. Louis, calling his effort “unacceptable” — O’Neill fell out of favor in St. Louis. On December 8, the Cardinals traded the pending free agent to the Crimson Sox in alternate for a pair of righty relievers, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.

Thus far, the change of surroundings appears to agree with him, although it’s value noting that Tuesday’s recreation was his first at Fenway with the Crimson Sox. One recreation, one homer? That’s a reasonably good price!

In gentle of O’Neill’s lengthy historical past of leg woes, it’s value declaring that as of now he’s hitting the ball more durable than previously two seasons. I current these stats whereas acknowledging that we don’t have sufficient information to attract robust conclusions about what’s occurring but; that is as a lot about his decline from 2021 as it’s his torrid begin:

Keep in mind that, as Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carlton has famous, exit velocity stabilizes round 40 batted ball occasions, and barrel price at 50 BBE, whereas groundball, fly ball, and hard-hit charges accomplish that at 80 BBE. Inside this small pattern, this 12 months’s exit velo and barrel price at the least look extra like 2021 than ’22 or ’23. On a rolling foundation of 25 plate appearances, each his xSLG and xwOBA present that his season-opening scorching streak resembles solely two or three stretches from the previous two seasons, whereas he had a handful of such stretches in 2021:

The opposite factor to notice about O’Neill is how a lot he’s tightened his strategy to date. He’s a man with numerous swing-and-miss in his recreation, a lot in order that at the same time as he ranked no. 61 on our Prime 100 Prospects listing in 2018, he had 30/40 grades (current/future) on his hit device, and from 2018–23, he struck out 30% of the time, seventh amongst hitters with at the least 1,500 PA in that span. Manufacturing-wise, he’s close to the higher finish amongst guys with strikeout charges in that neighborhood; of the hitters with the 30 highest strikeout charges over at the least 1,000 PA inside that span — all people from 28.8% up — his 111 wRC+ ranks fourth, behind solely Luke Voit (123), Giancarlo Stanton (122), and Teoscar Hernández (117).

Coming into this season, O’Neill had swung at 72.5% of pitches throughout the strike zone, together with 71% final 12 months; to date this 12 months, he’s lower that all the way down to 50.8%. Equally, his total swing price of 48.1% coming into this 12 months (44.9% final 12 months) is all the way down to 36%. His swinging strike price of 15.4% (11.2% final 12 months) is means down to six.4%, and his strikeout price, which was 25.2% final 12 months, is at 19.5%. Thoughts you, none of those stats have stabilized — swing price takes about 50 PA (he’s at 41) and strikeout price requires roughly 60 PA — however these are at the least promising traits.

We’re clearly nonetheless early sufficient within the season that any pattern might be a mirage, a two-week heater or skid which may not advantage nearer scrutiny if it had been positioned in mid-June or the canine days of August. Nonetheless, when mixed along with his scorching streak, the well being and change-of-scenery points of O’Neill’s state of affairs are at the least value keeping track of. He’s not going to proceed slugging .906, however for a group whose outfielders entered this season rating twenty second within the majors with a mixed 96 wRC+ since 2020 — i.e., the post-Betts period — this counts as a welcome growth.