MLB Mailbag: – MLB Commerce Rumors

Immediately’s mailbag will get into offseason wants for the Crimson Sox, how the Cubs may match Matt Shaw in, attainable suitors for Willy Adames, whether or not Jo Adell has turned a nook, and way more.

Dave asks:

As a disgruntled Crimson Sox fan (largely because of John Henry pulling within the purse strings), what are the Crimson Sox’s greatest wants going into subsequent season? I feel as all the time the necessity for an additional innings eater within the rotation. Additionally curious as to if Duran was supplied as commerce, what sort of beginning pitching would he command? As totally free brokers – I do not suppose the Sox will carry again any of them. Though for the precise worth possibly Pivetta.

This is how the staff units up proper now:

That does not embrace a quartet of highly-regarded place participant prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/middle fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel.   And naturally, Rafaela can play middle in addition to the center infield.

The Crimson Sox will want somebody to separate time at catcher with Wong till Teel is prepared, whether or not it is Danny Jansen or one other veteran.  Second base has been a difficulty, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the majority of the enjoying time there.  With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all choices there, I do not see a lot room for a veteran.

The outfield items can transfer round as properly.  Wilyer Abreu has had a superb rookie season, although he has not proven the power to hit left-handed pitching.  That downside prolonged even to Devers and Duran this 12 months.  Of the prospects I discussed, solely Campbell bats right-handed.  Baseball America touched on this concern not too long ago.

Devers had a powerful 12 months, whereas Story’s contract calls for a beginning job.  Yoshida, additionally well-paid, may not have that luxurious.  The Crimson Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, however he actually hasn’t hit exterior of July and is on monitor for a 1-WAR season.  I am undecided the place he matches.

At 4.71 runs scored per recreation, this has been an excellent offense.  That is regardless of giving common enjoying time to Rafaela.  It additionally consists of massive contributions from Tyler O’Neill, who appears more likely to go away as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who’s unlikely to repeat.

Given the flexibility and uncertainty round a number of of those gamers, there are plenty of methods subsequent 12 months’s lineup can shake out.  I’ve seen the thought of buying and selling Duran talked about right here and there.  Duran, 28, might be arbitration eligible for the primary of 4 occasions in 2025 and is underneath management via 2028.  He is cut up his time between middle and left subject in his breakout season, and performed each positions capably.  He is one among baseball’s quickest gamers, his arm is robust, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly purple.

Duran is on monitor for a 7-WAR season that in a few years would make him an MVP frontrunner.  He supplied the majority of his offensive worth from June via August, throughout which he had a 168 wRC+.  Duran has an 87 wRC+ in opposition to lefties this 12 months, although he did hit southpaws properly in June and July.