AUGUSTA, Ga. — After two rounds at Augusta National, the 79th Masters tournament has delivered the goods.
Fourteen of the top 25 players in the world find themselves within six shots of the lead heading into the weekend, and the two betting favorites — Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy — are just three and two shots back, respectively.
Justin Rose continues atop the tournament, but finishing the job will not be easy. Some of the sport’s best are chasing him.
What will a stacked leaderboard bring?
Mark Schlabach: There are myriad options with eight golfers within three shots of the lead and 11 only four behind Rose. Could we get the Rory vs. Scottie showdown on Sunday that everyone wanted? Could it be Rory or Scottie carrying the PGA Tour’s flag against LIV Golf League captain Bryson DeChambeau in the final 18 holes?
When you have a leaderboard this loaded — Viktor Hovland, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg are also within five shots of Rose — there are endless possibilities.
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“It’s exciting. It’s the Masters,” said three-time green jacket winner Phil Mickelson, who won’t be around for the final two rounds after missing the cut at 5 over. “The best players seem to rise. It’s going to be an exciting weekend.”
Paolo Uggetti: I think Augusta National, as it’s prone to do, has brought out the best in the best of the world over two days. If you look at players who missed the cut, there isn’t a truly big name (outside of maybe Brooks Koepka) that couldn’t make it to the weekend. That means the course has done its job of identifying who is playing the best golf right now and also that the top players in the world brought their A-game to the year’s first major.
It has been striking to see the incredible moments and elite shotmaking we’ve already witnessed. Outside of Rose’s opening-round 64, no round has looked straightforward or easy.
“This course takes it out of you physically and mentally, more so than most other golf courses,” McIlroy said. “We’ve got 36 holes to go on a very, very tough golf course.”
Despite the wet weather Monday night and Thursday overnight into Friday, Augusta has held up incredibly well, retaining its firmness and giving players plenty to think about as they chart their way around the course. The course should continue to get firmer and play faster come the weekend, and a warm Sunday forecast should set up a fantastic finish.
“This place is so good at getting the golf course in the condition or setting it up properly and not letting the weather get away from them, which is a surprise to nobody,” Justin Thomas said. “But I feel like with how the weather looks this weekend, it’s going to be very challenging.”
Who outside the top 10 has the best chance to still win?
Schlabach: There are a couple of former Masters champions, Hideki Matsuyama (2021) and Patrick Reed (2018), lurking just outside the top 10 at 3 under. Obviously, they both know what it takes to get it done on the weekend at Augusta National, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either one of them makes a charge over the final 36 holes.
Matsuyama, the only Japanese man to win a major championship, would be even further up the leaderboard if he hadn’t made a double bogey on the par-5 13th in the first round. He had an eagle on No. 2 on Friday and added four birdies and two bogeys to post a 4-under 68 in the second round.
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Matsuyama’s putter will have to heat up for him to do it. He lost more than three strokes to the field on the greens over the first 36 holes, according to DataGolf.com. But his iron play and driver have been lights-out; he gained 4.43 strokes on approach and 6.52 strokes tee to green in the second round.
Reed helped Augusta State win national championships in men’s golf in 2010 and 2011. Then he held off Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, McIlroy and others to slip on a green jacket in 2018. Reed had three straight top-25s in the LIV Golf League coming into Augusta National, where he always seems to play well. He finished in the top 12 in four of his past five starts here.
Reed is in contention even though his putter has betrayed him so far.
Uggetti: There are a lot of guys tied for 12th place at 3-under who are intriguing, but I’m going to go a bit further down and zero in on two-time major champion Xander Schauffele, who is tied for 17th after shooting 3-under Friday and sitting just six shots back of Rose.
Schauffele is not in midseason form after missing a handful of early-season tournaments with a rib injury, but his game is clearly still there. The 2024 Open and PGA champion gained nearly four strokes on the field with his approach play Friday and is fifth in the field in strokes gained: approach, per DataGolf.
“I think I can hit the shots. Confidence is a tender thing. I’m going to have to build that up,” Schauffele said. “It’s not going to just — as much as I’d like to wake up and feel like last year, that’s just not how it goes. I’m starting to hit some really nice shots, and that helps the confidence.”
As Schauffele pointed out, his putter hasn’t exactly helped the cause. He’s losing almost a full stroke to the field with the putter, which will need to catch some heat if he’s going to make a run on the weekend. But after winning two of the past three majors, Schauffele’s game seems capable of doing just that, even if he’s not fully back to major form.
“I didn’t shoot myself out of it,” Schauffele said. “But I’m going to have to move on moving day.”
Who has been the biggest surprise?
Schlabach: I’ll go with Hovland, who is tied for ninth at 4 under. I have no doubt that Hovland is one of the most talented golfers in the world. He is a seven-time winner on the PGA Tour and captured the 2023 FedEx Cup.
Even though Hovland won the Valspar Championship on March 23, his first victory since going back-to-back at the 2023 BMW Championship and Tour Championship, his game has been a mess.
The Norwegian golfer is constantly searching for perfection and goes through swing coaches like patrons go through pimento cheese sandwiches at Augusta National.
Even after carding a 3-under 69 on Friday, which included six birdies and three bogeys, Hovland seemed nowhere close to being satisfied. On a scale of 1 to 10, he described his swing as a 6 or 6½ right now.
“Just been kind of finding the old movement that I used to have in my golf swing, and it’s becoming more and more natural,” Hovland said. “My big right misses are becoming less and less, so it’s easier for me to trust what I’m already doing when the majority of the time when I hit a shot I look up and the ball is going in a pretty nice direction. Then my body and mind can kind of calm down and just try to execute.”
Hovland tied for seventh in the 2023 Masters, then missed the cut in three of four majors last year (he was solo third at the 2024 PGA Championship).
Before capturing the Valspar Championship, he had missed three straight cuts at the Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players. He still seemed lost in golf’s wilderness.
He’s obviously in a much better place now heading into the weekend.
“It’s crazy,” Hovland said. “You know, sometimes it doesn’t quite feel right, but you’re just able to match up the face and make the ball somehow start where you’re looking, even though it didn’t feel ideal, or it was different to what you used to do. But sometimes you get a nice week, and you can time it up nicely and you make a few putts, short side yourself, and instead of making bogey or double, you chip in and make a birdie. I mean, this game is silly.”
Uggetti: It has to be Matt McCarty. No, not Denny McCarthy — that’s McCarty, no “h” in the name. The winner of the 2024 Black Desert Championship is a Korn Ferry alum who won three times in one season to earn his PGA Tour card. After winning in Utah last October, he earned his way into this year’s Masters and now finds himself tied for sixth heading into the third round.
McCarty is probably a name you haven’t heard much of, but he is making a name for himself this week. Though the Official World Golf Rankings have him at No. 52, DataGolf says McCarty is more like the 112th-best player in the world. In his debut at Augusta National, McCarty birdied his first two holes Thursday and carded 1 under, an impressive round for a first-timer.
His encore was even better. McCarty started Friday with a double bogey and a bogey but then proceeded to shoot 8-under over his next 15 holes, including four straight birdies. He finished at 5 under, just three shots behind the leader.
“I don’t know, just kind of stuck with the game plan. I didn’t let myself get too rattled,” McCarty said. “Just stayed focused and didn’t think about what happened earlier and kind of moved on, and it was good.”
McCarty said that he knew he was hitting the ball well enough for a good score, but that his putter went cold Thursday. Once it heated up, there was no stopping him. He gained nearly four strokes on the field with his putting alone, according to DataGolf. More importantly, McCarty leads the entire field in strokes gained: approach this week.
“Obviously, this golf course is very difficult if you get out of position, but if you’re hitting good shots and giving yourself some good looks, you can make some birdies out here,” he said. “So it was fun.”
With so many top names around him, odds are McCarty will slip down the leaderboard come the weekend. But between a hot putter and his elite approach game, that’s a recipe that spells staying power.
