Jayson Tatum is on a tear

Jayson Tatum went into the All-Star break on a tear.

In the three games against the New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and San Antonio Spurs, Tatum put up an absurd stat line of 35 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, with only one turnover, on 61% true shooting. This punctuated the first portion of the regular season in which Tatum has played the best basketball of his career.

Jayson Tatum has become a nightmare for opposing teams to try and defend. On any night, Tatum will see opposing defenses roll through various coverages in hopes of slowing him down. The only coverage that has the potential to slow down Tatum and the Celtics offense is a switch-everything defensive scheme that can put four or five elite defenders on the floor at the same time and there is only one team that can throw five defenders out there at the same time to make this scheme effective against Tatum: the Oklahoma City Thunder. The good news for Tatum is that if they run into the Thunder, it will be in the NBA Finals.

That’s not to say the Celtics can’t beat the Thunder or that the Celtics can’t solve the Thunder defense. I would pick the Celtics in that series. But it would be a defensive slugfest, with both teams begging to crack 100 points in each game of the series.

For the 28 other NBA teams, let’s look at the various coverages Tatum has been picking apart this season.

We’ll start with traditional drop coverage. When Tatum calls for a screen, the screener’s defender, typically a big man, will drop back into the paint to protect the basket as the on-ball defender tries to recover from the screen. I think this might be Tatum’s favorite coverage to play against because it unlocks his pullup three.

One of the keys to this for the Celtics is for the screen setter to set an effective screen. And thanks to all the big men on the Celtics roster attending Al Horford’s Screen Setting University, the Celtic big men do a good job of consistently impacting the on-ball defender. So when the opposing big man is dropped too far back, Tatum’s deadliest weapon opens up.

The drop coverage variant is to bring the defending big man up to the level of the screen, cutting off Tatum’s ability to get off his pullup-three. This presents a new problem. Due to teams being so terrified of Tatum going nuclear behind the three-point line, the big man will show at the level, which has led to Tatum developing a head-fake-crossover-combo that he uses to open up clean driving lanes to the rim. From there, Tatum can finish over the big, kick to a shooter if the help arrives, OR Tatum can dunk on the help. The development of this move has led to some filthy plays from Tatum this season.

If you’re a team that has to play drop coverage against the Celtics, the only chance of survival is having multiple elite point-of-attack defenders who can blow up the screening action. And when I say elite, I mean the best in the world. For example, Mikal Bridges was billed as someone who could help the Knicks in these situations. However, Bridges is a good defender, not an elite one.

It’s unfortunate that the Knicks gave up five first-round picks for someone that Jayson Tatum enjoys torturing.

Let’s have a look at the switch-everything defense. This is the best way to slow down the Celtics offense. By committing only a single defender to Tatum, you force him into isolation basketball; the rest of the defense can stay home on shooters and limit the Celtics drive-and-kick game, in turn suppressing their three-point attempts which is a must if you want to have a chance at beating the Celtics in a playoff series.

The problem with this defensive scheme is that Jayson Tatum is one of the most efficient volume isolation scorers in the NBA this season. Tatum is scoring 1.04 points per possession in isolation this season. That is tied for fifth-best in the NBA, behind only Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson, and James Harden, (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is tied with Tatum at 1.04). So, if you’re going to switch everything, you better not have any weak defensive links or seals, as Joe Mazzulla would call them, because Tatum will hunt them possession after possession.

Now you might get lucky. Tatum might miss some makeable shots. Or when opposing defenses inevitably help on a Tatum mismatch, and Tatum finds an open shooter, that shooter might miss.

While the Cleveland Cavaliers got away with this strategy once earlier in the season, this game did not feature Jaylen Brown or Derrick White. I’m willing to bet that leaving a weak defender like Darius Garland on an island against Tatum for a playoff series will not end well.

So, opposing defenses have tried different drop coverage options and switch-everything options, which didn’t work. What’s left? Doubling, trapping, and blitzing. Sadly, for the 29 other teams in the league, Tatum handles traps and blitzes as well as anyone not named Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Lebron James. The hope for opposing defenses is to impact the shot quality of Celtic shooters and of course, limit Tatum’s ability to generate points for himself.

In this game against the Rockets, Tatum handled traps and blitzes from one of league’s best defenses masterfully.

Sadly, Jaylen Brown missed the clutch time catch-and-shoot opportunities that Tatum generated. If Brown is able to make at least one of those, it likely would have changed the outcome of the game.

Coming into the season Jayson Tatum was already one of the league’s more dominant offensive players. But this season, he has solidified himself as a top-5 player in the NBA thanks to his development in tormenting opposing defenses with his decision-making. This development should bode well as the Celtics creep towards another deep playoff run.