What are Jason Licht’s draft preferences for the Bucs?
Impressed by Jack Duffin, who has lengthy compiled this details about the draft lessons of the Browns, we will search for tendencies within the gamers that Licht drafts to tell our projections for who he could goal within the 2024 NFL Draft.
Earlier than we get into the evaluation, here’s a have a look at every participant he has drafted in rounds 1-3 together with their Relative Athletic Rating and age on the date of opening day their rookie yr for every of Licht’s 10 drafts in Tampa Bay from 2014-23.
Positional Tendencies
Jason Licht has drafted from each place group no less than as soon as inside the first three rounds (together with particular groups – for these of you affected by PTSD on the Roberto Aguayo choose, please ship your remedy payments to Pewter Report). The 2 positions he has drafted most is cornerback and inside offensive line. Each have comprised 5 of his 34 Day 1 and Day 2 picks (15%).
Discounting the particular groups choose, 5 place teams are tied for the least variety of early picks used on them. Linebacker, offensive sort out, quarterback, tight finish and large receiver at two apiece.
Bucs DT Vita Vea and GM Jason Licht – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Breaking it down by spherical and we see Licht focuses on premium positions in spherical one. Of his 9 picks within the preliminary spherical, 78% have gone to positions thought-about premium (quarterback, offensive sort out, large receiver, exterior linebacker/defensive finish, defensive sort out and cornerback). The lone exceptions to that rule have been Devin White (inside linebacker – 2019) and O.J. Howard (tight finish – 2017).
The one place he has drafted a number of instances within the first spherical has been inside line of defense with Vita Vea in 2018 and Calijah Kancey in 2023.
Within the second spherical we begin to see the place Licht has positional developments. He likes to focus on the secondary and offensive line on this space. One third of his 15 second-round picks have been both cornerbacks or safeties. One other quarter have been offensive linemen.
All instructed, these two place teams comprise 9 of his picks within the second spherical (60%). And Licht has discovered numerous worth with these alternatives. Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet each proved to be superb picks, and Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke are promising names that will be part of these two. Carlton Davis III also needs to be thought-about as a very good choose given the truth that he was a six-year starter and helped the Bucs win Tremendous Bowl LV.
The third spherical is the place Licht has taken his swings on working again with Rachaad White, Charles Sims and Ke’Shawn Vaughn all being chosen there.
Relative Athletic Rating
Relative Athletic Rating is a technique developed by Kent Lee Platte that appears on the athletic testing measurements and creates a single rating on a one to 10 scale. He has completed some in depth analysis to show that only a few gamers with low RAS scores ever grow to be good gamers. Now that doesn’t imply simply because a participant has a excessive RAS doesn’t imply they are going to be a very good participant both. But it surely has proven they’ve a greater likelihood than somebody who has a low rating.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, DT Calijah Kancey and GM Jason Licht – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Three of Jason Licht’s 34 early spherical draft picks lacked sufficient testing for an official RAS rating (kicker Roberto Aguayo, offensive sort out Luke Goedeke and inside linebacker Kendell Beckwith).
Licht has caught to drafting high-end athletes within the first spherical for probably the most half. Of his 9 alternatives within the first spherical only one had an RAS rating below seven. That choice was for a participant at a place the place athleticism isn’t all the time an enormous issue for achievement – quarterback Jameis Winston. However of the non-quarterbacks, seven of the eight gamers Licht has chosen within the first had RAS scores north of 9.00. Future Corridor of Fame large receiver Mike Evans really missed that cut-off, however nonetheless had a stable 7.83.
Apparently, Licht’s course of seems to be to be evolving as he leans into high-RAS scores extra. His lowest three RAS rating draft picks within the first spherical have been his first three. Since 2016 he hasn’t chosen a participant with an RAS below 9.25.
Jason Licht’s First-Spherical Draft Choose RAS Scores
TE O.J. Howard, 2017 – 9.76OT Tristan Wirfs, 2020 – 9.74DT Calijah Kancey, 2023 – 9.59DT Vita Vea, 2018 – 9.53ILB Devin White, 2019 – 9.33OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, 2021 – 9.30CB Vernon Hargraves III, 2016 – 9.27WR Mike Evans, 2014 – 7.83QB Jameis Winston, 2015 – 4.25
Jason Licht’s Second- and Third-Spherical Choose RAS Scores
Previous the primary spherical, Licht softens his RAS guardrails, trying to take extra probabilities on gamers who’re much less athletic however present greater soccer IQ. His second-round vary, which spans 13 gamers with recorded scores, spreads from 5.87 (security Justin Evans) to 9.92 (guard Ali Marpet). 5 of the 13 nonetheless maintained relative athletic scores greater than 9.00, six above 8.00 and 10 above 7.00.
Jason Licht’s Age Preferences
Bucs basic supervisor Jason Licht isn’t against drafting an older participant within the first spherical, however he’s much less possible to take action. 5 of his 9 first-round draft picks have been below 22 on opening day of their draft yr. And just one participant was over the age of 23 (defensive sort out Vita Vea, 2018). The common age of participant’s Licht has chosen rises with every subsequent spherical.
First Spherical – 22.08
Second Spherical – 22.54
Third Spherical – 23.26
9 of his 15 second-round picks have been 22 years previous on opening day, with three below that age and three over. Final yr’s second-round choice, Cody Mauch was the true outlier as he was nearly 25 on opening day. The COVID exceptions stemming from 2020 nonetheless reverberate amongst draft-eligible gamers even by way of this yr’s draft.
Licht’s third-round alternatives characteristic only one participant below 22. That choose was a giant hit because it was Chris Godwin in 2017. That yr Licht went younger with a number of third-round alternatives. Kendell Beckwith was additionally chosen within the third spherical that yr and he was Licht’s second-youngest participant chosen within the third.
Making use of These Ranges To This Yr’s Draft Class
Utilizing these guardrails, we will have a look at gamers projected to be out there when the Bucs choose within the first spherical and create some logical projections on who Licht may goal or keep away from. Utilizing Professional Soccer Focus’ mock draft simulator, I’ve charted 15 gamers primarily based off their common draft place by age and RAS rating to see who is perhaps roughly more likely to be a Bucs goal.
Instant Rule Outs
Minnesota security Tyler Nubin seems to be to be on the skin trying in. He falls exterior Jason Licht’s typical guardrails for each Relative Athletic Rating and age parameters. Equally, West Virginia’s Zach Frazier is over 23 and didn’t qualify for an RAS rating as a consequence of lack of testing.
Attention-grabbing Gamers Who Verify All The Bins
There are three gamers on this listing who’ve RAS scores over the 9.25 threshold who’re lower than 22 years previous. This could make them prime targets for Jason Licht and the Bucs. Extensive receivers Adonai Mitchell of Texas and Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU, in addition to edge rusher Chop Robinson of Penn State. All three play positions the Bucs have drafted within the first spherical below the Licht period.
These measurements will not be meant to be absolutes. However they do give a logical pool of gamers who usually tend to be focused by Licht and the Bucs. Partially two of this analysis, I’ll have a look at every of those gamers to see if their skillsets/manufacturing lends themselves to being Bucs targets.
