Key Highlights
Through the second spherical of the playoffs, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder held a plus-5.3 internet ranking with Chet Holmgren on the ground and a minus-15.0 internet ranking when he was on the bench
The Thunder completed twenty seventh in offensive rebounding fee final season, whereas Isaiah Hartenstein ranked within the 92nd percentile individually
Hartenstein was within the seventieth percentile in help fee amongst massive males, per Cleansing the Glass
Except for their top-three offense torpedoing right into a crunched-up slog, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder’s playoff demise was headlined by an incapacity to remain float every time Chet Holmgren sat. Throughout their second-round, six-game defeat, they outscored the Dallas Mavericks by 21 factors throughout Holmgren’s 216 minutes and have been outscored by 21 factors in 72 minutes with out him (-20.3 internet ranking swing, per NBA.com).
So, as soon as free company commenced earlier this month, they sought to handle that deficiency at backup 5 by touchdown Isaiah Hartenstein on a three-year, $87 million deal (workforce choice for the third 12 months). But Hartenstein’s hefty price ticket and 2023-24 emergence — following many seasons of intriguing play in a smaller position — proved he’s far too good for merely that designation.
Occupying a beginning gig for many of final season whereas sitting central to the New York Knicks’ success, his protection, playmaking, screening and rebounding established him among the many league’s higher facilities. In fact, he’s not superior to Holmgren, an ascending 22-year-old who seems imminently primed for stardom. But when afforded sufficient rope, the 26-year-old may help significantly treatment a few of Oklahoma Metropolis’s different shortcomings, together with rebounding, screening and three-point quantity.
His arrival ensures the Thunder enjoy 48 minutes of high-level heart play. Hardly ever will one in all Holmgren or Hartenstein not be on the ground. His arrival must also assure a spot within the beginning 5.
Both Luguentz Dort or Alex Caruso would come off the bench. Though Caruso is the higher participant, his harm historical past and Dort’s reference to the franchise will doubtless earn him the nod at capturing guard. The playoffs are the precedence, so retaining Caruso upright have to be the target. There will probably be matchups the place downsizing is most popular, however the baseline quintet ideally options Holmgren and Hartenstein collectively. It’s the best path to fixing weak hyperlinks that cropped up for the Thunder in sure common season video games and versus Dallas.
One of many elements defining Oklahoma Metropolis’s second-round foibles was its poor on-ball passing. It is a excellent connective passing workforce, however with Dallas loading the strong-side and zoning up correctly on the weak-side, it couldn’t flip the ground to take advantage of that tactic. Drive-and-kick is about spinning the protection into rotation and the Thunder failed to realize that, partly due to their passing limitations.
Neither Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jalen Williams had the gusto to weave passes round all the scale the Mavericks threw their route. Holmgren, for all his two-way exploits, isn’t a sturdy inside-the-arc operator who capabilities as a playmaking hub. Hartenstein does.
In accordance with Cleansing the Glass, he positioned within the seventieth percentile in help fee amongst bigs final season (12.7 %) and his 7-foot-1 stature is a real software. It permits him to see excessive and execute reads that the Thunder’s perimeter initiators typically uncared for in spherical two. They’ve missed this type of path to pivot towards offensively. Hartenstein will current it.
Taking part in by way of him would require a shift away from Oklahoma Metropolis’s drive-and-kick, five-out method. Even when the five-out ethos is sustained, there could be an adjustment to present a non-spacing risk substantial duties. The idea of its assault final season was emphasizing touches for dribble-pass-shoot dudes and surrounding them with succesful drive-and-shoot cogs (Josh Giddey apart, therefore his playoff benching and subsequent departure).
Hartenstein is a savvy facilitator with extra off-the-dribble juice than assumed, but he’s not an outdoor shooter or a driving massive like Holmgren. Slotting him at heart would transfer Holmgren to the 4 and rearrange his offensive utilization and placement. Lengthy-term, the purpose is presumably to maintain Holmgren at heart, however letting him develop his mismatch scoring towards 4s reasonably than 5s — given his energy deficit — might work within the interim, too.
Spotlighting a 7-footer with playmaking verve might assist improve the Thunder’s lengthy vary quantity. Regardless of being third in three-point proportion, they have been simply twenty first in three-point fee. There was cumbersome hesitancy with their shooters. A lot of them have been wired to drive off the catch reasonably than firing — particularly, Williams and Aaron Wiggins — that Dallas acknowledged and focused. The odds portrayed them as an elite capturing group, whereas the movie steered in any other case.
A tweak in mindset is critical. Hartenstein’s passing capacity and luxury flipping the court docket at his measurement must be boons, however they aren’t wholesale options. The shooters should embrace bombing away extra recurrently; their numbers are too good for in any other case.
His distributing nonetheless offers a unique, welcomed wrinkle. Final 12 months’s five-out alignment masked playmaking deficiencies. Hartenstein isn’t only a tall man with a little bit of deft contact. He’s a legit passer in numerous kinds. Oklahoma Metropolis sports activities shrewd cutters. Faucet into that extra. Encourage them to chop and obtain feeds from Hartenstein reasonably than solely to spark threes or snare passes from slashing ball-handlers.
It additionally dabbled with dunker spot utilization within the playoffs. Hartenstein is a superb dump-off passer. Taking part in him on the 5 and Holmgren as a 4 periodically lurking within the brief corners may diversify the offense. Maybe, his addition doesn’t alter the three-point quantity as a lot because it creates extra possibilities across the basket (sixteenth in rim frequency throughout the common season, thirteenth within the playoffs). Both incidence sounds profitable.
Hartenstein isn’t a Nikola Jokic-level orchestrator. Gilgeous-Alexander is among the many NBA’s chief engines. He, together with Williams, will dominate the motion. There may be going to loads of time Hartenstein operates off the ball. It’s one other adjustment that (rightfully) granting him vital minutes will immediate: crafting clean offense with a non-shooting heart enjoying heavy minutes. Even when he will get again to experimenting a bit as a stretch massive, really garnering defensive consideration takes time and outcomes (he’s 27-of-87, 31 % in six seasons).
However the lack of capturing doesn’t render him an off-ball legal responsibility. Routinely discovering area out and in of the paint, he’s an alert mover. Whether or not it’s producing open pictures for himself or others, there are penalties of ignoring him or extending him room/angles to make use of. The Knicks sometimes slotted him within the reverse nook, which baited defenses into sagging off earlier than the offense flung the ball his method and initiated dribble handoffs. I particularly like this for Oklahoma Metropolis if Isaiah Joe is the recipient.
On and off the ball, there are a viable assortment of abilities he gives that make it troublesome to punish his minimal scoring arsenal by guarding him 4-on-5. He’ll display screen, he’ll transfer, he’ll drive, he’ll cross. All of it might ease the assimilation for each himself and the Thunder, and be elements of the offense every time he’s not the focus.
Readily obvious throughout the second spherical was Oklahoma Metropolis’s want for a great screen-setter. It’s not one in all Holmgren’s standout attributes. That left the creation burden squarely on Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders towards a rangy, related protection and congested paint. Williams was not ready to successfully pilot offense in that sequence both. Hartenstein ought to simplify life for everybody together with his burly, perceptive screening, cognizant of when to implement contact and when to slide.
In accordance with NBA.com, he was 14th in display screen assists per sport throughout the common season (3.5) and third throughout the playoffs (5.1). He’s a hulking impediment who holds agency or audibles the angle primarily based on no matter’s wanted most. He’ll spring unfastened off-ball shooters and ignite alternatives in pick-and-rolls.
It’s one other trait of his that might increase the Thunder’s three-point numbers if he’s producing separation for his or her bevy of shooters with pindowns, flares and on-ball screens. Possibly, his off-ball picks are a decoy at occasions, opening drives for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to grease the offense. An elite screener surrounded by a dynamite offensive expertise, a slippery secondary handler, and bountiful capturing is a devious weapon.
Whereas some screeners of Hartenstein’s caliber are brief on a lot offensive utility — which hamstrings their minutes and utilization — Hartenstein isn’t. His involvement doesn’t should pause after the display screen. His playmaking is all the time there towards traps or overloaded defenses. He’s a launch valve scorer together with his floater. In accordance with Cleansing the Glass, he ranked within the 89th percentile from brief midrange final season, changing 54 % of his appears to be like; over the 2 prior years, he hit 52 % of them.
It’s a pesky little shot, each out of ball screens or relocating from the dunker spot throughout paint touches. Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams (to a lesser extent) are methodical handlers who personal a penchant for the midrange. Their latest heart enhances that model.
If utilized keenly, he can lead the cost in blotting out lots of Oklahoma Metropolis’s weaknesses. His offensive rebounding is probably his foremost ability. He’s completed within the 89th percentile or higher the previous two seasons, whereas the Thunder have been twenty seventh amongst 30 groups in 2023-24.
Their aversion to second possibilities is a byproduct of sprawling transition protection (third in lowest opposing frequency final 12 months). However Hartenstein touts an actual knack for the ball and will lug them up from the pits with out ushering in systemic change.
That acumen might deter groups from switching or stashing smaller defenders on Hartenstein in an intention to allocate their measurement elsewhere. The Mavericks pinned lesser defenders on Holmgren within the second spherical as a result of he couldn’t punish them. Hartenstein isn’t an adept scorer, however he’s a dominant offensive rebounder. That will solely be amplified going through mismatches. His one-man clean-up crew will behoove a downhill-determined workforce that led the league in drives per sport by a large margin final season (452 greater than second place).
He’s dependable patrolling the opposite facet of the glass too, putting among the many 61st percentile or higher in defensive rebounding fee the final two seasons. Oklahoma Metropolis was twenty ninth general in 2023-24. Hartenstein will buoy that rank, together with all the protection.
He and Holmgren have been two of the league’s more practical rim protectors final season. In accordance with NBA.com, opposing gamers shot 11.4 % under their common on area objectives inside 6 ft when Holmgren was the closest defender. When it was Hartenstein, they shot 11.2 % worse. These marks ranked sixth and seventh amongst 157 gamers who contested no less than 4 such pictures per sport. One or each of them goes to be on the ground nearly on a regular basis subsequent 12 months!
Holmgren has cemented himself as a premier 1-on-2 defender in drop protection, able to dancing between ball-handler and curler. Hartenstein is an excellent ball-screen defender as properly, most harmful enjoying close to the extent or in excessive drop. He’s mild on his ft, a looming inside deterrent and wields extraordinarily dexterous arms.
The choice to tab both as the first massive defender whereas the opposite stays low ought to promote versatility and aggression. Oklahoma Metropolis already led the league in opposing turnover fee final 12 months and may actually distance itself after bringing in Hartenstein and Caruso. Hartenstein completed within the ninetieth percentile in steal fee and 74th percentile in block fee. He’s snug on the perimeter and in area off the ball, and excels as a defensive anchor.
Holmgren seeing prolonged minutes on the 4 will necessitate a studying curve. There are completely different defensive duties. The burgeoning abilities league-wide amongst 4s might pressure him into extra on-ball perimeter duties than conventional massive man duties. But the attraction and prospects alongside Hartenstein appear so intriguing.
Final 12 months, there was no strategy to deviate and play massive for lengthy spurts. Now, they’ll. It ought to change into much less of an alternate and extra of the norm. Their expertise, malleability and ceiling have elevated. They’ll rebound and defend the rim higher, whereas nonetheless turning groups over at an absurd fee. They renovated snazzy components of the boat and plugged a leak.
The perimeter group of Caruso, Dort, Williams, Wiggins, Joe, Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace is stout sufficient to insulate whichever massive is low. Pre-switch most actions. Stash the supersized 4 on the creakiest offensive participant. Allow a roamer. Particular opponents is not going to have a obvious gap (a la the reigning champion Boston Celtics), however that measurement and defensive influence remains to be irritating. Hartenstein’s rebounding and low man prowess may imply he’s greatest suited to the job. Protecting Holmgren in ball-screens defensively isn’t a difficulty anyway.
Final season, the Thunder’s abundance of perimeter abilities got here on the expense of measurement. Often, that’s related to defensive concessions. For them, although, these concessions primarily manifested offensively. Hartenstein maintains the theme of ball abilities, whereas instilling essential, newfound components together with his body.
Having fun with the advantages of his signing is simple. He’ll again up Holmgren and play 15-18 superior minutes nightly. Maximizing his signing calls for extra — much less of any grand overhaul and extra a few versatile identification.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams ceding a little bit of management on the ball. Extra time for Hartenstein to facilitate the offense. Extra rolling reasonably than popping in ball-screens. Extra horizontal motion, dribble handoffs and off-ball screens. Holmgren navigating life as a 4. Credible shooters excising timidity from their line of considering.
This roster is as much as the duty. Among the basis exists from Jaylin Williams‘ offensive utilization final season. The Thunder will doubtless be great irrespective of how Hartenstein is applied. He and they’re adequate. However they are often way more than their 2023-24 selves if everybody aces this pairing. That’s the place the true problem resides, and what’s most necessary shifting ahead.
