Is now the second to make a transfer for Jimmy Butler?

This thought experiment explores the hypothetical state of affairs of a Jimmy Butler commerce, analyzing its potential on-court advantages, monetary ramifications, and what it may sign for the Celtics’ future decision-making.

Jimmy Butler to the Celtics may have occurred earlier than — twice, really.

First, again at his draft in 2011, then President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge was near deciding on him however ended up with JaJuan Johnson after a commerce with the Nets. A couple of years later, Ainge may have traded for Jimmy Butler utilizing the draft picks that changed into Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. And but, Jimmy Butler to the Celtics by no means occurred… thus far.

As you may need heard, Jimmy Butler has reportedly requested to be traded out of Miami, searching for a spot to compete for a title. And what higher place for that than the Boston Celtics? From his perspective, this would possibly seem like the proper alternative.

You is likely to be questioning—how and extra importantly why may the Celtics commerce for Butler, and whether or not it is smart to take a raffle on the 35-year-old ahead. Nicely, stroll with me into this parallel universe (that may very well be a not too far actuality).

The how

The Celtics are within the second apron, so they can not ship a number of gamers in a commerce to match salaries and tackle extra wage past what’s already on their books. This is able to possible imply a simple swap between Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler, doubtlessly with draft picks concerned, presumably going from the Warmth to the Celtics. As we converse, the Warmth have solely two picks to ship (2030 and 2031 first spherical) however they might transfer issues round to construct a greater supply.

Why it would make sense on the court docket

What are the Celtics combating this season?

Producing free throws (twenty first within the league)
Attending to the rim (twenty eighth within the league)
Forcing turnovers (twenty third within the league)
Creating transition alternatives (twenty fifth within the league)

What’s Jimmy Butler good at? Nicely, all the above.

Offensively, he’s exhausting to cease from attending to the rim. This yr, half of his shot makes an attempt have come on the rim, the place he converts at a 70% price—regardless of Miami’s common spacing. Think about the injury Butler may do with the elite spacing supplied by the Celtics.

He’s additionally an absolute menace in terms of drawing fouls. He generates capturing fouls on 23% of his makes an attempt—higher than Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This alone may enhance the Celtics’ offense considerably when their exterior photographs aren’t falling. For context, Butler averages 1.31 factors per shot try, in comparison with 1.10 for Jaylen Brown.

Defensively, the Celtics have struggled to create turnovers and transition alternatives. Jimmy Butler’s elite anticipation and skill to disrupt passing lanes can be a major enhance. Traditionally, he has excelled at pressuring ball handlers and forcing steals.

In transition, whereas the Celtics would miss Jaylen Brown’s ending capability, Butler’s playmaking would compensate. Mathematically, based mostly on on-court affect, Butler may assist remodel most of the Celtics’ present weaknesses into strengths.

Nevertheless, the Celtics can be lacking Jaylen Brown point-of-attack protection. This commerce would enhance the off-ball protection and may result in extra transition, however the Celtics shall be out of their go-to-guy to cease the opponents famous person. Would Jimmy Butler have the ability to decelerate Luka Doncic as a lot as Jaylen Brown did over the past NBA Finals? I doubt it.

Nevertheless, Jrue Vacation or Jayson Tatum may take over the famous person task, whereas Jimmy Butler would stay off-ball, prepared to leap on passes.

As for considerations about match, Butler has a smaller utilization price than Brown, and his driving and post-up recreation would thrive inside the Celtics’ spacing. He wouldn’t clog their offense or disrupt the circulation.

And let’s not neglect Jaylen Brown’s remark that the Celtics “hunt seals” on offense. Jimmy Butler is an elite hunter.

Why it would make monetary sense

The Celtics’ monetary scenario is advanced. They’re within the second apron and are projected to stay there subsequent season. Past the standard penalties, staying within the second apron for 3 years inside a five-year span has important penalties: “if groups stay within the second apron for any three years in a five-year interval, their upcoming first-round draft decide is mechanically moved to the top of the primary spherical.”

The Celtics presently have 5 gamers incomes over $30 million yearly for the subsequent two years. Transferring Jrue Vacation’s contract can be tough, Derrick White’s deal is just too helpful to commerce, and Kristaps Porziņģis offers essential spacing and rim safety—plus his latest harm diminishes his commerce worth. Sooner or later, the Celtics could face a selection between their two franchise stars.

Buying and selling for Jimmy Butler may very well be an early (and presumably untimely) method out. Whereas Butler’s participant choice looms, his expiring contract may present the Celtics with monetary flexibility within the close to future—all whereas retaining them in rivalry.

Nevertheless, what is going to occur to Jimmy Butler’s subsequent contract? Will he need out of the Celtics? Will he ask an excessive amount of — making it inconceivable for the Celtics to maintain him blissful? Jimmy Butler is already 35 years outdated, his greatest years are prior to now, whereas Jaylen Brown peak is but to come back.

Will this gamble of Jimmy Butler deliver the Celtics extra finance flexibility — or will they be caught in a extra problematic scenario, with a participant that not too long ago appeared inconceivable to maintain blissful.

What concerning the intangibles?

Neglect the court docket and the finance for a second… how would the Celtics gamers and training employees react to reminiscent of tsunamis within the locker room? The Celtics present success has been construct round Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — would this even work with one of many Jay’s out?

On prime of Jaylen’s departure, would the Celtics have the ability to combine Jimmy Butler after such a monumental transfer? Jimmy has been an enemy for the final years. How may the Celtics entrance workplace commerce for him towards one in all their brothers?

There are clear doubts that Jimmy Butler would match nicely with a gaggle that simply noticed its Finals MVP and longest-tenured participant traded for him. And it’s uncertain that Brad Stevens would break aside the group he spent the offseason solidifying.

Nevertheless, a possible Butler commerce serves as a reminder that tough selections are on the horizon. Do not forget that, on prime of the overloaded payroll, the Boston Celtics are presently on the market. With this commerce, the present possession may make the monetary scenario extra interesting for potential consumers.

Whereas such a earth-shattering deal could not make sense this season, it may very well be a template for what’s to come back.