Saturday is a day that has been ringed in the calendar for months. The anticipation of France and Ireland renewing rivalries has been immense and what always shaped up as the likely decider for the championship will prove to be exactly that. Again. They have been the two most consistent, outstanding teams in the Six Nations for years now and they rarely disappoint when they lock horns.
It’s an intense rivalry but it isn’t fuelled by geographical reasons or historical antipathy. It is just a rivalry based on the brilliance of both sides, the two dominant teams battling out for the alpha status. It reminds me of Arsenal and Manchester United 20-25 years ago. Two teams separated from the rest of the pack by the quality they possess.
We might have expected both teams to be three from three by the time they met because not many people would have seen England’s victory over France coming, but the fact that they are not only adds to the intrigue. France need to win, but they have such a healthy points difference that if they do pull off a victory in Dublin they will take some stopping. Intriguingly, a France victory would also bring England into the equation.
France will be hurting from the fixture between these two sides last year. For both of them it was their first match since the agony of being eliminated in the World Cup quarter-finals and whereas Ireland had flushed the disappointment out of their system, France clearly had not. They were still mourning their failure to win the World Cup on home soil and were comprehensively put to the sword. That will have stung.
France can have a habit of peaking for one particular match during the Six Nations. Two years ago they had targeted a first win at Twickenham in 16 years and they pulled it off to devastating effect, running out 53-10 winners. I suspect that they will have had a similar mindset about going to Dublin this year.
They were magnificent against Italy last time out, but what did I learn about France in that match? Absolutely nothing. Antoine Dupont’s stats were off the chart but we already knew he was world class and the truth is that France will have had more challenging training sessions. But they’ve had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s clash, which afford them the perfect preparation, and they will have Romain Ntamack’s authority and influence back at fly-half.
Their unique selling point is their sheer power and size. They have some incredible back-three players – Louis Bielle-Biarrey is showing just how lethal he can be – and they have the best lineout maul in the competition. Their scrum hasn’t been as dominant as you might have expected and I’m not convinced that their centre partnership is as strong as it could be – but the messaging for France is clear. This is their title match, their heavyweight bout, and their physicality is their super-strength.
Two years ago, in one of the most memorable Six Nations matches in history, Ireland were able to get themselves in the right emotional place to match that physicality but too often in the past, whether it is Leinster or Ireland, the French have got the better of them. People don’t like it when you compare Leinster and Ireland but in this instance it’s justifiable. Leinster have lost two European finals because of their lack of physicality. Pure and simple. And when Ireland have come up short against France in the past that has tended to be a key factor.
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For Ireland, the challenge is to do something that no one has ever done before: to claim three titles in a row – two of them with grand slams – and if they can achieve it, it will be a credit to their unbelievable consistency. I don’t think there’s a better team in the world at managing their way through games at the moment and that has proved so valuable so far, in particular in wins against England and Wales.
Against Wales they didn’t have a functioning scrum – and tighthead prop would be a concern for me if Tadhg Furlong and Finlay Bealham are not fit – but up stepped Jamison Gibson-Park and Sam Prendergast to steer them out of trouble by dominating territory and exerting control. They have an incredible understanding of how to apply pressure, back that up with more pressure and then come alive in the opponents’ 22.
That understanding of precisely what your role is and what everyone else’s is is so valuable because it takes the pressure off your own execution. They don’t make many mistakes in the 22 and they don’t make many mistakes in getting to the 22. If they have a USP it’s how they are consistently able to come away with points. Compare that with Scotland’s profligacy at Twickenham, for all that they impressed.
I’m a firm believer that if you get your game on the park for long enough, you’re a pretty decent bet to win. And what I love about Ireland and France is that their respective games, the way in which they go about achieving dominance, is so different. If Ireland allow France to show their physical dominance for long enough then I can’t see anything other than an away win. But if Ireland box clear and display their ruthlessness and efficiency for long enough then I expect they will prevail.
