The 2025 BNP Paribas Open final is set, and it’s a showdown few predicted at the start of the tournament.
Jack Draper stunned two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a rollercoaster semifinal, while Holger Rune outsmarted Daniil Medvedev with a masterclass in tactics and composure.
Both players produced statement wins to reach the biggest final of their careers and will now battle for their first ATP Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells on Sunday.
The recap, stats and highlights from both semis are below.
Day Eleven 2025 BNP Paribas Open Semi-Final Results
Winner
Loser
Scoreline
Holger Rune (12)
Daniil Medvedev (5)
7-5 6-4
Jack Draper (13)
Carlos Alcaraz (2)
6-1 0-6 6-4
Rune Slices and Dices Past Medvedev
Holger Rune delivered another composed performance in Indian Wells as he comfortably dispatched two-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4.
The Dane came armed with a clear tactical plan, blending variety and patience from the baseline, applying plenty of air to his shots to stay in the points and using slices to frustrate Medvedev and reach his first ATP Masters 1000 final since Paris 2022.
Pre-match, I thought it would be Medvedev who caused Rune to break away from any tactical plan he had and opt for low-percentage shots, but the roles were completely reversed.
Medvedev had no answers from the back of the court, couldn’t hit through Rune and was pushed into making errors.
We were spoiled for many years watching Federer’s ability in the forecourt, so I was super disappointed with how Medvedev struggled in that area. When he’s 10 feet behind the baseline, he’s an absolute beast, but get him up near the service line, and he’s outside the Top 500.
Rune’s slice isn’t a standout shot; these were just slow, floated balls that weren’t particularly low or tricky, yet Medvedev couldn’t do anything with them.
I was, however, impressed with how Rune executed the plan; it was drilled into him pre-match and worked flawlessly. He never looked in much trouble; his speed got him to every ball easily, and knowing he could float the ball back in and get to the next gave him confidence.
Historically, he’s lost quite a few matches from making terrible decisions. I distinctly remember his match vs Wawrinka in Indian Wells a couple of years ago, where he played some awful shots at the end of the third set, but there was none of that here, and if he can keep up this type of composed play, then the clay should be a good stretch for him.
It means everything. The job is not over yet, but it feels amazing. Playing Daniil is one of the toughest challenges for me on Tour. I managed to beat him the first time [we played], but we know each other well. I obviously had the right tactics, but it was still so difficult because he puts in great effort and is super solid. So, I’m very proud of myself. It’s about finding the right tempo, and luckily I’ve got good leg work, so I can reach many balls. It’s a very specific tactical plan that I made with my coach yesterday evening and this morning. It’s about finding the right pace and which shots to hit, because so many players miss too many shots against Daniil. He makes you go for more, so I’m super proud that I managed to find the right rhythm. Rune on his win.
Match Stats
Holger Rune
Daniil Medvedev
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
2
0
1st Serve Percentage
67%
50%
1st Serve Points Won
72% (34/47)
67% (20/30)
2nd Serve Points Won
61% (14/23)
53% (16/30)
Break Points Saved
50% (1/2)
25% (1/4)
1st Return Points Won
33% (10/30)
28% (13/47)
2nd Return Points Won
47% (14/30)
39% (9/23)
Break Points Converted
75% (3/4)
50% (1/2)
Winners
20
16
Unforced Errors
28
27
Net Points Won
70% (7/10)
77% (10/13)
Max Points In Row
69% (48/70)
60% (36/60)
Service Points Won
40% (24/60)
31% (22/70)
Return Points Won
55% (72/130)
45% (58/130)
Total Points Won
55% (72/130)
45% (58/130)
Service Games Won
91% (10/11)
73% (8/11)
Return Games Won
27% (3/11)
9% (1/11)
Total Games Won
59% (13/22)
41% (9/22)
Draper Downs Defending Champion Alcaraz
In the day’s second semi-final, Jack Draper ended Carlos Alcaraz’s 16-match winning streak in Indian Wells, pulling off a 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 upset to reach his first ATP Masters 1000 final.
With the win, Draper will break into the Top 10 in the ATP Rankings for the first time, climbing to No. 8, and his game is a real handful, especially in these types of conditions.
That heavy, lefty topspin forehand does a lot of damage, and Alcaraz didn’t find a way to counter it. Pre-match, I thought it would be close, as in all four of their previous matches, Draper has caused Alcaraz problems, but I thought Carlos’s speed and ability to get up the court would prove the difference.
However, Alcaraz looked very flat from the outset. Just watching his split step, there wasn’t that typical bounce or wide base in his game that lets him play like the energizer bunny. Nerves? Just one of those days? Over 5, he might be able to find a way, but the best of three doesn’t give you any wiggle room.
Draper took full advantage of that in the opener, and although he went off the boil in the second, he was the stronger player in the third.
Did the “not up” call make a difference? I don’t think so.
It was a strange match in all honesty. Carlos came out a little flat, I sensed that. I had a chance in the first game of the second, and he came up with an ace. What happened to him happened to me, I got tight, I had low energy. Against the top players in the world, they can change their momentum very quickly. I got lost out there for 25 minutes, but in the third, I was really proud of my competitiveness, my attitude and I somehow managed to get over the line. Draper on the match.
Match Stats
Jack Draper
Carlos Alcaraz
Aces
4
3
Double Faults
2
4
1st Serve Percentage
68%
56%
1st Serve Points Won
64% (30/47)
64% (25/39)
2nd Serve Points Won
50% (11/22)
45% (14/31)
Break Points Saved
56% (5/9)
20% (1/5)
1st Return Points Won
36% (14/39)
36% (17/47)
2nd Return Points Won
55% (17/31)
50% (11/22)
Break Points Converted
80% (4/5)
44% (4/9)
Winners
13
26
Unforced Errors
24
30
Net Points Won
75% (6/8)
72% (13/18)
Max Points In Row
59% (41/69)
56% (39/70)
Service Points Won
44% (31/70)
41% (28/69)
Return Points Won
52% (72/139)
48% (67/139)
Total Points Won
52% (72/139)
48% (67/139)
Service Games Won
67% (8/12)
64% (7/11)
Return Games Won
36% (4/11)
33% (4/12)
Total Games Won
52% (12/23)
48% (11/23)
Highlights
Indian Wells 2025 Final
Holger Rune (12) vs Jack Draper (13)
Who is the 2025 Indian Wells champion going to be?
