Following the cash: UFC 311 betting line actions tracker | Makhachev vs. Moicano

UFC 311 goes down this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The pay-per-view (PPV) principal occasion was purported to function Islam Makhachev risking his Light-weight title in a showdown with Arman Tsarukyan, which is a rematch from a combat in 2019. Nonetheless, Tsarukyan sensationally pulled out of the combat on simply hours earlier than weighing in (full particulars right here). UFC responded swiftly, selling Renato Moicano — who was initially booked to battle Beneil Dariush — to UFC 311’s PPV principal occasion.

And he’s able to “shock the world!”

The co-main occasion appears to have remained intact, although. That has Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, trying to defend his belt for the primary time. His opponent is the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.

Additionally on the principle card is Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, Serghei Spivac vs. Jailton Almeida and Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder.

The picks of the “Prelims” fights embrace Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira and Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos.

I’ve been watching the strains (see them right here) for all of the fights on UFC 311 and monitoring the adjustments to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Beneath you’ll discover all the road motion data because the odds had been launched (per Greatest Struggle Odds).

UFC 311 PPV Fundamental Card Line Motion Tracker

Islam Makhachev (-950) vs. Renato Moicano (+550)

With this combat simply being made at the moment, there’s not been sufficient time for the strains to maneuver. What we’ve now could be Makhachev as a monster betting favourite towards his short-notice alternative (Moicano).

Previous to this, Makhachev was a decent-sized favourite towards Tsarukyan. And Tsarukyan’s line was rising, with public cash favoring the champ.

Tsarukyan had opened as a +180 underdog, however that had risen over 24 p.c to +270 on Friday.

I settle for public cash will proceed to hammer Makhachev and his odds to beat Moicano will shrink by combat time, with Moicano’s elevating significantly.

Merab Dvalishvili (+226 +25.8 p.c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-282 -17.4 p.c)

The betting public are usually not that eager on Dvalishvili. When he fought Sean O’Malley, he opened as a +142 favourite, however his line grew to make him a +240 underdog (good for individuals who preferred him and held off on betting till simply earlier than the combat). This time across the betting public have pushed Dvalishvili from a +142 underdog to a +226 canine!

That’s lots of doubt within the champion who wiped the ground with O’Malley in The Sphere.

Umar Nurmagomedov has been backed by the general public in each combat he’s had in UFC. In opposition to Cory Sandhagen, his line opened at -278 and closed at -340.

Jiri Prochazka (+113 +20.7 p.c) vs. Jamahal Hill (-136 -30.1 p.c)

There’s been a number of fascinating motion on this combat. Jamahal Hill opened at +125 and Jiri Prochazka opened at -145. These odds have kind of flipped, with Hill now the slight favourite.

On Dec. 20, 2024, there was some fascinating exercise, too. On that day Hill’s line spiked to +100 and Prochazka’s fell to -145. The strains started to maneuver in reverse instructions quickly after, giving us what we’ve now.

This was solely the third time Hill had opened as an underdog in his UFC profession. He was +130 towards Alex Pereira and that line barely moved. Again in 2021, he opened as +185 towards Jim Crute, whom he beat through technical knockout.

Jailton Almeida (-470 -18.4 p.c) vs. Serghei Spivac (+348 +35.3 p.c)

Serghei Spivac opened as +190 underdog, however the public believes his probabilities of beating Jailton Almeida are far smaller than that. Regardless of coming off a primary spherical submission win over Marcin Tybura, Spivac’s odds have ballooned up previous +340. Almeida’s line is dropping steadily, making him one of many largest favourite on the cardboard.

Kevin Holland (+102 +17 p.c) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-124 -24 p.c)

Holland opened as a -148 favourite, with de Ridder as a +124 slight underdog. However these numbers have flipped with De Ridder now the slight favourite in what is actually a decide ‘em.

Recency bias is likely to be an element right here. The very last thing the general public noticed of De Ridder was his submission over Gerald Meerschaert. Holland’s final combat ended with him getting injured beneath Roman Dolidze.

UFC 311 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Motion

Payton Talbott (-1178 -7.6 p.c) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+730 +33.3 p.c)

Barcelos open at +440, however that has soared as much as +730. We noticed this with Talbott’s final opponent, too (Yanis Ghemmouri). His line flew. Then he obtained starched within the first change of the combat. Vegas, and the general public, thinks the same destiny is awaiting for Barcelos.

Bogdan Guskov (-356 -4.1 p.c) vs. Billy Elekana (+275 +13.3 p.c)

Elekana is coming in on brief discover for Johnny Walker. These strains haven’t been out lengthy, however the public are fading the PFL vet right here in favor of the extra established UFC expertise.

Grant Dawson (-250 +4.6 p.c) vs. Diego Ferreira (+200 -13.8 p.c)

Ferreira obtained the win over Mateusz Rebecki final outing as a giant underdog. He’s a average underdog right here, with the general public betting him down from his authentic +240 line. It is going to be Ferreira’s fortieth birthday on combat evening. Perhaps some of us suppose he will likely be gifted a giant win. Dawson, who has appeared superb since his fast loss to King Inexperienced, opened as a -298 favourite.

UFC 311 Early‘Prelims’ Line Motion

Zachary Reese (+160) vs. Azamat Bekoev (-194 -0.5 p.c)

Reese was purported to combat Sedriques Dumas. He was a snug favourite in that bout versus a fellow striker. His brief discover opponent is a wrestle-grinder, although. Bekoev is available in as the favourite and his line is trending down.

Karol Rosa (-254 -14 p.c) vs. Ailin Perez (+203 +20.1 p.c)

Perez opened at +142, however the public thinks she might need her arms full with Rosa. Perez’s line has steadily risen, making her a reasonably large underdog to the strain striker. The general public had been proper in Perez’s final two fights, betting her line down (as a favourite) towards Darya Zheleznyakova and Joselyne Edwards.

Rinya Nakamura (-591 -10.4 p.c) vs. Muin Gafurov (+424 +28.4 p.c)

Nakamura — a stud wrestler with knockout energy — is among the largest favorites on the cardboard. Gafarov, who isn’t distinctive at something, has seen his line steadily rise since Dec. 20, 2024. Nakamura gained his final combat as a -1250 favourite, having opened at -700.

Ricky Turcios (+204 -11.8 p.c) s. Bernardo Sopaj (-257 +3.7 p.c)

This can be a little odd.

These two had been purported to combat in Nov. 2024. When that combat was initially booked, Turcios was the +225 underdog and that rose to +285. The combat was then scrapped on weigh-in day.

This time round, Turcios opened at +240 and the general public are supporting him, bringing his line all the way down to +204.

Sopaj’s line has moved in the other way, too. He was a -375 favourite again in Nov. 2024.

Tagir Ulanbekov (-330 -10.2 p.c) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+253 +17.8 p.c)

The undefeated Carpenter opened at +190, however that has risen to over +250. There’s lots of public religion in Ulanbekov, it appears, regardless of him being out of motion for multiple yr.

UFC 311 Largest Line Actions

TLDR: Listed below are the largest line actions at UFC 311:

Serghei Spivac: From +190 underdog to +348 underdog (+36.3 p.c) (A)

Raoni Barcelos: From +440 underdog to +709 underdog (+33.3 p.c) (A)

Jamahal Hill: From +125 underdog to +135 favourite (-30.1 p.c) (B)

Muin Gafarov: From +275 underdog to +424 underdog (+28.4 p.c) (A)

Merab Dvalishvili: From +142 underdog to +225 underdog (+25.8 p.c) (A)

Since I’ve been monitoring line actions on UFC PPVs, just a few early tendencies have began to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-23.*

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, sufficient to present them minus odds, are 8-6.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, but they continue to be at plus odds, are 1-4.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, sufficient to present them plus odds, are 3-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-1.

*The one winners on this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 and Mateusz Rebecki who beat Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308.

UFC 311 Greatest Underdogs Bets

There’s just a few fascinating underdogs on this card. Chief amongst them is our Bantamweight champion, Dvalishvili, who you will get at +230. That’s fascinating to me, since I feel Dvalishvili is extra battle-tested than Nurmagomedov and that this will likely be a brilliant shut combat both manner.

I additionally like Holland to beat de Ridder, primarily based on the power of his boxing (and the way a lot de Ridder obtained hit in his UFC debut). I additionally like Carpenter within the curtain jerker. Ulanbekov has fought as soon as in two years and been out of motion for round 12 months. I’ll take Carpenter (and ring rust) at +265.

Sufficient about me, although, which of those underdogs do you want probably the most?

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC 311 combat card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+/ESPNEWS “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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