Following the cash: UFC 309 betting line actions tracker | Jones vs. Miocic

UFC 309 occurs TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) inside Madison Sq. Backyard in New York, NY. The pay-per-view (PPV) major card (see it right here) is headlined by Heavyweight champion, Jon Jones. Jones will probably be trying his first title protection in opposition to the person who holds the file for Heavyweight title defenses, Stipe Miocic.

Our co-main occasion is a Light-weight banger (and a rematch) with Charles Oliveira assembly Michael Chandler. Rounding out the ESPN+-streamed PPV card are Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig, Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva and Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop.

There’s numerous nice fights on UFC 309’s “Prelims,” too.

On that portion of the cardboard, we’ll see Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee, Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders and Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson.

I’ve been watching the strains (see them right here) for all of the fights on UFC 309 and monitoring the adjustments to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Beneath you’ll discover all the road motion data for the reason that odds have been launched (per Finest Combat Odds).

UFC 309 PPV Fundamental Card Line Motion Tracker

Jon Jones (-637 -15.5%) vs. Stipe Miocic (+454 +38.6%)

The oddsmakers had this as a a lot nearer combat than the general public has. They opened with Jon Jones at -298 and Stipe Miocic at +240, however public betting has modified that fairly dramatically, with Miocic being pushed out to +500 territory.

When this combat was scheduled for final yr the opening odds have been +170 Miocic and -200 Jones. The general public betting pushed Miocic out to +300 earlier than the combat was cancelled on account of an damage to Jones.

Each cases present that, on this match-up, the general public aren’t feeling very assured in Miocic. Contemplating he hasn’t fought in three years, this could possibly be a case of many members of the betting public not being that conversant in Miocic and the exploits that made him, statistically, essentially the most profitable UFC Heavyweight champion of all time.

That is nice information in the event you’re somebody who thinks Miocic goes to shock the world on Saturday night time. If that’s you, it could be value holding off since his odds are nonetheless trending upwards.

Charles Oliveira (-260 -8.8%) vs. Michael Chandler (+207 +14%)

There hasn’t been a lot line motion with our major occasion. The general public should be fairly glad with Charles Oliveira as a decent-sized favourite over Michael Chandler.

Chandler comes into this one off a protracted lay-off due to Conor McGregor’s incapability to decide to a combat or do what he must do to make it occur. Oliveira has been extra energetic; nonetheless, final trip, he misplaced to Arman Tsarukyan.

Oliveira received the primary combat between these two, regardless of being rocked early.

For that first combat the strains opened at -178 Oliveira and +146 Chandler. The general public appreciated Chandler that point round. They wager his odds all the way down to +120 (and Oliveira’s to -125).

The general public have been fallacious that point round will probably be fallacious once more?

Bo Nickal (-1308 -3.1%) vs. Paul Craig (+755 +18.1%)

The oddsmakers began Bo Nickal off at -1000 and there’s been minimal public curiosity in him since, transferring his quantity simply a few factors. That’s not on account of a scarcity of religion or something.

It’s just because there’s no worth available there.

The shortage of curiosity in Paul Craig has pushed up his worth, although. He opened at +600 and that’s risen by virtually twenty %.

This line is nothing new for Nickal. He opened at -1100 and closed at -1430 in his final combat, versus Cody Brundage. He opened as -2500 and closed at -1300 in opposition to Val Woodburn.

Craig has seen his odds skyrocket in his previous few UFC fights. Towards Caio Borralho he opened at +154, however that exploded to +475 (for good cause, Borralho mopped the ground with him). Beforehand he noticed his opening line of +200 rise to +360 in opposition to Brendan Allen (who submitted him late). Earlier than that, in opposition to Andre Muniz, he opened at +140 and that rose to +200 (a combat he received through technical knockout).

Viviane Araujo (+229 +11.9%) vs. Karine Silva (-291 -6.8%)

Viviane Araujo opened at +190 and spiked at +235 on Nov. 5, 2024. Her line then dropped to +213 on Nov. 13, 2024, earlier than lengthening barely to what I’ve now. All through all that Karine Silva’s line hasn’t modified a lot.

This can be a fairly shut combat, although Silva has actually completed extra within the cage recently. I can perceive why just a few people could be making large bets on Araujo once they noticed her at plus odds. She’s been in there with some good fighters and it’s not out of the query that she’s going to have the ability to outlast Silva for a call.

Personally, although, I like Silva’s extra well-rounded sport and I believe she’ll come out forward after a detailed resolution (perhaps a cut up or majority).

Mauricio Ruffy (-882 -2.7%) vs. James Llontop (+573 +10.8%)

The general public have been proper about Mauricio Ruffy final trip. In his correct UFC debut in opposition to Jamie Mullarkey, he opened as a +150 underdog. However, that shifted by 80.4% to make him a -225 favourite. He then went on to obliterate Mullarkey with patented Combating Nerd fashion hanging.

His line hasn’t modified a lot on this match-up with James Llontop. The combat just lately bought switched from a Light-weight contest to a Catchweight at 165 kilos. With Llontop lacking weight by one pound, I believe we are able to assume the late change was due to him struggling and never Ruffy.

Llontop’s odds may go even increased within the subsequent 24 hours due to that (if the combat goes forward).

UFC 309 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Motion

Jonathan Martinez (+119 -2.3%) vs. Marcus McGhee (-144 +0.8%)

Jonathan Martinez opened at +124. Then on Nov. 4, 2024, his line shifted to -106. His line began to elongate in opposition to on Nov. 10, 2024.

Marcus McGhee opened at -148. On Nov. 5, 2024, his line shortened to -112 earlier than then lengthening at Nov. 9, 2024.

All this motion speaks to this being a detailed and exhausting to name combat. McGhee has appeared good thus far in his UFC profession. Martinez has appeared good, too, apart from his final combat — the place he appeared completely overwhelmed reverse Jose Aldo.

Chris Weidman (-104 -38.3%) vs. Eryk Anders (-117 +19.8%)

There’s been some fascinating betting exercise on this combat. Chris Weidman really opened up because the +170 underdog, however he’s been steadily wager into favourite territory, dropping a whopping 38.3%. Eryk Anders was the -205 favourite earlier than falling slightly to -117.

I’m slightly puzzled by the motion right here. I don’t have any religion in a 40-year-old Chris Weidman. Often you see this sort of motion with fighters who’re particularly in style (like Sean O’Malley and Paddy Pimblett).

However, is Weidman a attract 2024? I’m not so certain.

Jim Miller (+147 +30.6%) vs. Damon Jackson (-118 -40.4%)

We have now a flip right here!

Damon Jackson opened at +118 and Jim Miller opened at -140. However, the general public clearly thinks that Jackson must be the favourite on this match-up of artful veterans. My decide is Jackson, too, however I don’t assume many people on the market consider this will probably be something apart from a really shut combat.

David Onama (-956 +0.4%) vs. Roberto Romero (+615 +2.1%)

Roberto Romero is coming in on very late discover for Lucas Almeida. The opening strains solely simply got here out, which is the explanation there was minimal motion right here.

UFC 309 Early‘Prelims’ Line Motion

Marcin Tybura (-148 -5.6%) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+122 +5.4%)

Not a lot change right here.

The general public appear very content material with the oddsmakers suggesting Jhonata Diniz is biting off greater than he can chew, leaping from a failed Derrick Lewis match-up to Marcin Tybura (somebody with much better grappling than him).

Mickey Gall (-142 -29.5%) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+117 +21.5%)

We have now one other flip!

Mickey Gall opened at +120 and Ramiz Brahimaj opened at -142. However, that is one other combat the place the general public assume Vegas is fallacious. They assume Gall (a extra recognizable title) must be the favourite.

This line motion has given Gall minus odds for the primary time since he fought Diego Sanchez in 2019 (he was TKO’d by Sanchez in that combat).

Oban Elliott (-286 -26.3%) vs. Bassil Hafez (+226 +32.5%)

The general public agreed with Vegas that Oban Elliott must be the favourite in opposition to Bassil Hafez. Nevertheless, the general public additionally thought the oddsmakers have been being slightly conservative. Elliott began out as a -142 favourite, with Hafez because the +120 underdog.

Hafez received as a giant favourite final trip (-425 vs. Mickey Gall). In his UFC debut, a short-notice combat with Jack Della Maddalena, he was an enormous +420 underdog. Regardless of his lengthy odds he gave an excellent account of himself reverse the Aussie, dropping through cut up resolution.

Veronica Hardy (-139 -1.2%) vs. Eduarda Moura (+120 0%)

Not a variety of motion to talk on right here.

Veronica Hardy is coming off three victories (all by resolution). Eduarda Moura is coming off a loss to Denise Gomes. She’s combating at Flyweight right here after lacking weight in her two earlier Strawweight outings.

UFC 309 Largest Line Actions

TLDR: Listed below are the largest line actions at UFC 309:

Damon Jackson: From +118 underdog to -181 favourite (-40.4 %) (B)

Stipe Miocic: From +240 underdog to +454 underdog (+38.6 %) (A)

Chris Weidman: From +170 underdog to -104 favourite (-38.3 %) (B)

Bassil Hafez: From +120 underdog to +226 underdog (+32.5 %) (A)

Jim Miller: From -140 favourite to +147 underdog (-30.6 %) (D)

Mickey Gall: From +120 underdog to -142 favourite (+29.5 %) (B)

Oban Elliott: From -142 favourite to -286 favourite (-26.3 %) (E)

Since I’ve been monitoring line actions on UFC PPVs, just a few early traits have began to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-15.*

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, sufficient to present them minus odds, are 7-4.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, but they continue to be at plus odds, are 0-4.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, sufficient to present them plus odds, are 2-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 1-1.

*The one winners on this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 and Mateusz Rebecki who beat Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308.

UFC 309 Finest Underdogs Bets

There are a variety of large underdogs on this card. Stipe Miocic, Paul Craig, Bassil Hafez, James Llontop and Roberto Romero have eye-watering odds that might return a variety of dough in the event you’re braze sufficient to wager on them.

I don’t see any of them being definitely worth the threat, although.

Of the safer underdog bets, there are just a few fighters who opened as favorites who are actually out there at plus odds (Jim Miller and Ramiz Brahimaj). Both of these guys have an important probability to win.

Personally, I like Eduarda Moura’s possibilities now she’s at a extra comfy weight class. I additionally like Jonathan Martinez to rebound from his disappointing exhibiting in Rio.

Sufficient about me, although, which of those underdogs do you want essentially the most?

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of all the UFC 309 combat card proper right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) major card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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