Five stats that reveal the Celtics bent without breaking

In various press conferences and interviews, the Celtics players and the coaching staff repeatedly mentioned how much the Magic forced them to play a different version of their game.

The team coached by Jamahl Mosley was indeed very physical and wasn’t afraid to let a mismatch defend its ground. They switched everything and took away the usual gaps the Celtics are able to generate. How does this unusual defensive approach against the Celtics translate on the stat sheet, and what does it say about the team?

Let’s look into five statistical changes from the regular season to the postseason for the Boston Celtics.

Mid-range volume

In the regular season, the Celtics ranked 29th out of 30 in mid-range volume. This takes into account both short and long mid-range shots — pretty much all two-point shots that aren’t layups or dunks. During the regular season, the Celtics took 24% of their shot attempts from that zone. In the Playoffs, that number increased to 38%!

However, the efficiency from that zone wasn’t great during the series against the Orlando Magic, with a 38% field goal percentage. The good news is, the Celtics were super efficient from all other zones. They made 80% of their attempts at the rim, which ranks first among all Playoff teams. They also hit 39% of their three-pointers, a mark higher than their regular season efficiency.

In a nutshell, the Celtics were able to adapt to the shot regime the Orlando Magic imposed, while staying efficient in most areas. They accepted to play their game because, in fact, they have the resources to win despite being forced to play against their nature. But the mid-range shots weren’t the biggest shift. What changed the most was the volume of free throws attempted.

Getting to the line

The most efficient way to create points on a basketball court is to shoot free throws or attempt shots at the rim. Both are often correlated. For a player with an average free-throw percentage (78%), a trip to the line with two attempts creates on average 1.56 points — far above the league average efficiency per possession (1.15 points per possession).

Therefore, as the Celtics struggled to get their usual shots going, they used one of Orlando’s strengths against them. One thing the Magic players might not have realized is that with their overly aggressive approach, they gave the Celtics a ton of easy points at the line.

Against the Magic, the Celtics shot 29 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. During the regular season, that number was down to 17 (lowest free-throw rate in the league). Because they ranked last, there were doubts about their ability to get to the line — starting with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. But the Jays showed they could get to the line if needed, even in a Playoff context where fouls are less likely to be called. Both of them stepped up and drew more fouls.

From dead last in free-throw volume to taking more shots at the line than from three in Game 4 — quite the turnaround for the Celtics.

Post-up

However, there was another area where the Celtics looked different — and even drew fewer fouls than during the regular season: the post-up. Since Kristaps Porzingis landed in Boston, the Celtics increased both their post-up volume and efficiency. Around the Latvian, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum added that tool to their offensive game.

The goal with these post-ups was to force the defense to send another defender and create a four-on-three situation off the ball, or to create an easy shot from the mismatch. The problem is, the Magic decided not to send two players on the ball and weren’t easy to attack one-on-one from those positions. But the Celtics kept trying.

The Celtics went from fewer than seven post-ups per game to almost 11, but the efficiency and fouls drawn from these situations faded. They went from an elite 1.05 points per possession in the regular season down to 0.72 against the Magic.

Most of this drop came from Kristaps Porzingis, who went from 1.19 points per possession to 0.61 during the first round. The big man had more trouble drawing fouls and wasn’t comfortable shooting over the Magic’s guards and wings. This will be interesting to monitor in the next rounds. Will other teams test Porzingis one-on-one the same way?

Passing

The Celtics in the regular season weren’t a team that passed the ball a lot, averaging 275 passes per game to create 26 assists. But in that series, the passing volume dropped drastically. Against Orlando, Boston passed the ball only 233 times per game — more than a hundred passes fewer than the Indiana Pacers, who faced the Milwaukee Bucks. The number of passes is indicative of a bigger trend in the series.

In the regular season, the Celtics were the team that created the most points from catch-and-shoot situations (37.1 points per game). Against the Magic, that number dropped to 22, and the Celtics went from the best to the second-worst team in catch-and-shoot scoring during the Playoffs.

The same trend can be found if you look at drive numbers. During the season, the Celtics passed on 40% of their drives. Against Orlando? Down to 29%. The Magic did a great job staying with their man, forcing the Celtics to beat their matchup one-on-one and taking away the pass. Yet, despite not passing the ball, the Celtics increased their turnovers.

Turnovers and transition defense

The Celtics went from a team that rarely loses the ball to one that risked losing more games against the Magic because of turnovers. The turnovers had a double negative impact — not only did the Celtics not score on those possessions, but the Magic often generated easy buckets in transition. Given the Magic’s weak half-court offense and problematic spacing, you could count on them to run in transition.

But the Celtics did a great job in transition. So much so that Orlando’s offensive efficiency following steals dropped from 1.42 points per possession in the regular season to 1.21 — a tremendous difference for a team that relies heavily on transition.

Overall, despite the Celtics taking more shots they usually don’t, despite being forced to play a game that isn’t theirs, despite changing their offensive diet, and despite losing the ball more often — the Celtics dominated. Yes, dominated.

Over the five games, the Celtics had the fourth-best offense and the second-best defense in the Playoffs according to Cleaning The Glass (a statistics website that filters out garbage time). Yes, the game was slow, rough, and tense — but the Celtics controlled the series, and the Magic didn’t stand a chance.

Nonetheless, congrats to them for making the Celtics play in a way they didn’t want to. But beating the Celtics will require more. More talent, more discipline, and more depth.