Fantasy Basketball: Jokić vs. Wembanyama — who must be the No. 1 decide?

Selecting between Nikola Jokić, the seasoned, can’t-miss MVP with a monitor document of fantasy dominance, and Victor Wembanyama, the electrifying new phenom, presents a novel dilemma for fantasy basketball managers with the primary general decide.

Positive, the selection could also be simple for some, however others will wrestle with the attract of confirmed success versus exploring untapped potential. There’s finally no improper solution to go, however listed here are some issues I might debate with such an advantageous draft place this season.

The incumbent 1.01: Nikola Jokić

The mannequin of consistency, Jokić has owned fantasy basketball for nearly half a decade. This is a breakdown of his fantasy performances over the previous 4 seasons, the place he is captured three MVPs, a Finals MVP and an NBA Championship.

Knowledge courtesy of Basketball Monster and Hashtag Basketball

Once you mix his per-game efficiency along with his unmatched sturdiness (totals), he is been a no brainer choice on the high of fantasy basketball draft boards. He would not miss video games and fantasy is about stat accumulation. Jokić has greater than earned it.

The Joker has 114 triple-doubles since 2019, essentially the most within the NBA over that span. You will all the time see his title among the many leaders in rebounds and assists per recreation and the one areas the place he is under league common are in turnovers (understood, given his utilization) and three-pointers made. And to all the “Jokić would not play protection” haters, he is averaged 2.2 shares per recreation since 2019. Lower it out.

Then there’s the effectivity. With over 60% of Jokić’s pictures coming from inside 3-10 toes and 80% of his discipline objectives being of the 2-point selection, he takes benefit of mismatches and finds methods to attain closest to the rim. Jokić has shot over 56% from the sector over the past 4 years and has been between an 81-82% free-throw shooter.

I will spare you from happening the rabbit gap of his superior metrics (PER, win shares, BPM and VORP), however simply know he is been in a tier of his personal.

He is nicely into his prime, turning 30 years outdated in February and, after securing his third MVP final 12 months, there are only some gamers who can hold with the Serbian legend. He is one of many best gamers to construct a group round and is among the most versatile gamers in fantasy.

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The challenger: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Are you prepared to interrupt fantasy?

If the reply is sure, then draft Wemby No. 1. Whereas Jokić provides you the best, most secure ground accessible, Wembanyama has no ceiling. Listed below are some figures to show that his rookie 12 months is the beginning of one thing epic.

First rookie since Karl-Anthony Cities to complete top-12 in per-game and complete worth in class codecs

Second-most fantasy factors scored in rookie season (3,260 FPs by means of week 24)

Completed top-10 in per-game and complete worth in factors codecs

Led the league in complete blocks (254) and blocks per recreation (3.6)

Led all rookies in factors, rebounds and blocks per recreation

Led all rookies in complete factors, rebounds, blocks and steals

tenth within the NBA in double-doubles (43) and triple-doubles (2)

Joined Jamaal Tinsley as the one different rookie to document a 5×5 line (at the very least 5 pts, rebs, asts, stls and blks)

First participant since Michael Jordan to document 5 blocks and 5 steals in consecutive video games

1 of 8 rookies in NBA historical past to common at the very least 20 factors, 10 rebounds and three assists per recreation

1 of 6 rookies in NBA historical past common at the very least 20 factors, 10 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.5 blocks per recreation

The one participant to common 21+ factors in lower than half-hour per night time final season

1 of 9 gamers in NBA historical past to common at the very least 21 factors in lower than half-hour per recreation

1 of 5 gamers in NBA historical past with a 30% utilization fee in his rookie 12 months

I may discover extra, however hopefully, you get the purpose. Wemby is past an distinctive expertise, however now that we have gone by means of some enjoyable stats, let’s get to the case for him being the 1.01.

Wemby will not match Jokić’s effectivity from the sector or his help manufacturing, however in scoring, rebounding and steals, he is on par, together with two defining outliers — blocks and 3s.

Wembanyama is the odds-on favourite to steer the league in blocks (by a substantial margin). His inventory potential units him into an echelon we have not seen in fantasy since Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. He may legitimately be a three-point-shooting David Robinson, which is frightening AF.

For the uninitiated, the Admiral averaged 21/11/3 with 4 shares for his profession — put some respeck on his title.

There is a distinct benefit to having a participant who’s confirmed able to contributing to each statistical class, and that is Wemby. And let’s be sincere — this can be a recreation, and having a nightly spotlight reel main your squad makes the expertise way more fulfilling.

I am not naive to the inherent dangers of shopping for into the Wembanyama hype. Jokić’s sturdiness amid a load administration period issues. Availability is usually the most effective means. Nonetheless, Wemby performed 71 video games in his rookie marketing campaign, and regardless of being dealt with with child gloves for the primary half of the season, it was in all probability the most effective factor for his long-term well being. Being a per-minute beast reduces some threat as a result of, even when his minutes get monitored periodically, you will nonetheless reap some helpful manufacturing.

My Verdict:

I’ve Wembanyama on the high spot however I get it if you happen to suppose Jokić is the proper transfer — he most definitely is. It is a win-win state of affairs.

However scared cash do not make no cash, and every little thing is pointing to Wembanyama turning into a cheat code for fantasy basketball.