Elevator Doors: Stray thoughts from the snow globe
Look, we’re all a little dizzy.
The days leading into Thursday’s NBA trade deadline shook up the league in ways we can’t even begin to comprehend yet. The implications of the still-shocking Luka Doncic trade and the ensuing deals that rippled outward are still being sifted through.
If you want trade grades, there are plenty of professorial types willing and eager to hand those out. If you want cap ramifications, there are plenty of accountants who can walk you through it.
At Elevator Doors HQ? We’re rambling our way through it, the best way we know how. Here are six stray thoughts from the still-shaking snow globe:
No. 1: In 1983, the Boston Celtics had a problem. After four seasons, four top-four MVP finishes (three top-two finishes), one Rookie of the Year award, and one 1981 NBA title, a certain 26-year-old franchise cornerstone spent a lot of time – perhaps too much time – in local watering holes. It was well known that this particular franchise cornerstone would get up to no good with fellow drinkin’ buddy and rabble-rouser Rick Robey.
Imagine Red Auerbach saying to himself, “I really have no choice but to trade Larry Bird straight-up for Artis Gilmore. Defense wins championships, after all.”
Auerbach made the seemingly obvious decision to hang onto Larry Bird, who got in shape, won the next three MVP awards, and cemented his legacy as one of the top 10 players ever.
Instead of making a franchise-crippling decision, Auerbach sent Robey to Phoenix in exchange for Dennis Johnson in one of the most lopsided trades in basketball history.
Why am I bringing this up now? Oh…no reason.
No. 2: We all had a hunch that De’Aaron Fox would fit like a glove in San Antonio, but there is a unique kind of joy in seeing the fit work out even better in reality.
Fox played the first of what will likely be hundreds of games in a Spurs jersey, notching 24 points and 13 assists in a thrilling 126-125 win over the hobbled Atlanta Hawks. Fox’s impact went beyond the box score, however, as his speed and shiftiness allow this squad to play a completely different way.
We’ve seen Victor Wembanyama’s brilliance in all kinds of scenarios in less than two professional seasons, but seeing him unleashed in an up-tempo, speed-first philosophy with Fox at the helm brings an entirely new dimension. San Antonio is one more solid offseason away from challenging the West’s best.
No. 3: Institutional rot is nearly impossible to overcome.
Teams in this category can occasionally string together enough roster moves to eventually earn a playoff berth or two, but that often functions as painting over mold instead of treating the issue at its source. Years of mismanaged draft picks, noxious contracts, and head-scratching trades have lingering effects that sometimes don’t surface until it is too late.
It’s when a team has no choice to but to trade De’Aaron Fox for less than he’s worth. It’s when that same team takes on Zach LaVine’s contract. It’s when LaVine’s former team trades him for far less than it could’ve gotten years prior. It’s when Brandon Ingram is involved in a trade that is somehow equally uninspiring for both sides.
These are big moves for really good players on big-money contracts, but none of them actually move the needle in a positive direction for these “institutional rot” franchises. Put down the paintbrush and call the mold specialist!
No. 4: Jimmy Butler got his way. Sort of.
Was any of this worth it? After months (years?) of scorched-earth behavior on both sides, Butler has his exit plan, his balloon payment, and his desire to contend for the postseason (even though the Miami Heat are perhaps better positioned to qualify for the playoffs than the Golden State Warriors due to conference alignments). Miami has a weird, hodge-podge roster of underestimated, counted-out, but savvy veterans – very Heat Culture. Steph Curry has a teammate who can create his own shot (inside of 20 feet, but still) again.
It’s a huge trade for one of the league’s signature playoff performers, but I can’t help but think this doesn’t matter – not really.
He looks great now. Of course he does. He’s rested, refreshed, and furious. He’s getting to the line constantly. He’s dangerous. He’s Jimmy Butler. Does this current version of the Golden State Warriors have a puncher’s chance against just about anyone in the West? Of course, especially given the lack of playoff experience of several of the teams at the top of the standings. Does this current version of the Warriors have enough to advance multiple rounds? I doubt it.
The “light years ahead” Warriors are locked into a 35-and-older core to the tune of nine figures worth of contracts exceeding more aprons than a bakery. But sure, let’s devote another 1,000 segments on ESPN to “what this means.”
No. 5: How many second-round picks got flipped this last week? 100? 200?
These picks have little to do with the players who will be selected and more for keeping up appearances in regard to the GM’s employment security. For every Nikola Jokic and Draymond Green who breaks through, the vast majority of second-round picks never sniff a second of NBA action. These picks shuttling back and forth feels like a gentleman’s agreement by all 30 NBA front offices to make it seem like these trades require additional layers.
But if your team is left out of the second-round jamboree, there are real roster-building consequences. Without extra second-rounders lying around, a team has little to no chance of attaching any sort of worthwhile asset to an undesirable contract in hopes of freeing up a roster spot or negotiating the apron levels ahead of the buyout market.
When Denver GM Calvin Booth sunk three second-rounders into dumping Reggie Jackson’s contract last offseason, it made it impossible for Denver to attach anything of value to either Zeke Nnaji or Dario Saric to clear out space/salary to make meaningful moves in the buyout market. Players who could help Denver will now take an extra-long look at that conspicuously absent roster spot on the Lakers or other buyout opportunities.
These are the moves around the edges that can impact the title race.
No. 6: An underrated trade that might impact the title race, though? DeAndre Hunter to Cleveland.
Hunter has been in the middle of a career year in Atlanta, thriving in a bench role to the tune of 19 points per game and a hair under 40% shooting on nearly 7 threes per game. If this version of Hunter can help solidify Cleveland’s wing rotation, he provides a lot of size/athleticism at a position of need against wing-heavy contenders such as Boston and New York. Hunter has disappointed in years past, but if this year’s version of Hunter can seamlessly snap into place on this ruthlessly efficient Cleveland squad, the Cavs can jump a level from “fun regular-season wins machine” to “real title contender.”
