Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland prediction, pick

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 312 main event title fight between middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and ex-champ Sean Strickland.

Dricus Du Plessis UFC 312 preview

Dricus Du Plessis

Staple info:

Record: 22-2 MMA, 8-0 UFC
Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
Last fight: Submission win over Israel Adesanya (Aug. 17, 2024)
Camp: Team CIT (South Africa)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:+ UFC middleweight champion+ Regional MMA titles+ Black belt kickboxing (2nd degree)+ Amateur kickboxing accolades+ 9 KO victories+ 11 submission wins+ 8 first-round finishes+ 17-1 as a middleweight+ KO power+ Aggressive pace and pressure+ Awkward but effective timing^ Favors striking in combination+ Strong inside the clinch+ Serviceable wrestling ability+ Aggressive grappling game^ Uses submissions to transitions+/- 1-1 in career rematches

Sean Strickland UFC 312 preview

Sean Strickland

Staple info:

29-6 MMA, 16-6 UFC
Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
Last fight: Decision win over Paulo Costa (June 1, 2024)
Camp: Xtreme Couture (Las Vegas)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:+ Former UFC middleweight champion+ King of the Cage middleweight title+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt+ 11 KO victories+ 4 submission wins+ 9 first-round finishes+ 23-3 in the middleweight division+ Consistent pace and pressure+ Long and accurate jab^ Coming forward or off the backfoot+ Solid inside of the clinch^ Strikes well off the breaks+ Underrated wrestling ability^ Defensively and offensively+ Good transitional grappler^ From top or bottom+/- 1-0 in career rematches

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland point of interest: Striking the second time around

Jan 20, 2024; Toronto, Canada, USA; Sean Strickland (red glove) fights Dricus Du Plessis (blue gloves) during UFC 297 at ScotiaBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 312 features a rematch for the middleweight title between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland.

With both fighters being deceptively difficult to kill, their first encounter back at UFC 297 ended up being a tactical, back-and-forth battle that saw Du Plessis narrowly scrape out a split decision win on the scorecards to become the new champion at 185 pounds.

Two days into fight week and none of us have posted this yet? Have we lost our touch? pic.twitter.com/FdSk3efoAj

— Miguel Class (@MigClass) February 4, 2025

Strickland was able to get a lot done with his combination of jabs and body teeps early, but Du Plessis’ multi-dimensional attacks and persistent pressure presented unique challenges.

A marauding madman from South Africa, Du Plessis is a deceptively well-prepared fighter with a style that can be difficult to get a beat on.

Fueled by unbridled confidence and an insane athletic drive, discouraging Du Plessis appears to be a near-impossible task. Whether he’s looking to counter off a high guard or is blitzing forward spastically, Du Plessis always appears to be focused on the task at hand.

The current middleweight champion is also competent in both stances and regularly shifts to southpaw, which further flusters opponents who are already struggling to grasp his awkward timing.

Nevertheless, Du Plessis is not beyond being taxed down the centerline for his aggressiveness, so I’ll be curious to see what answers he has for Strickland this time around.

Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.

When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to better target fleeing foes. Opposite opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize said shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.

Still, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not beyond being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.

However, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has done a much better job of controlling the cage, which, in turn, helped him turn in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.

Nevertheless, Strickland will still need to respect the level-changing threats coming his way if he means to maintain the striking initiative in this fight.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Sean Strickland

Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if this fight hits the floor on Saturday.

Although takedowns from the former champion’s side of the equation shouldn’t be overlooked, Du Plessis proved last time out that he’s the more likely party to engage in the grappling realm.

Coming from a background in both judo and wrestling, Du Plessis is no stranger when it comes to scoring takedowns in mixed martial arts.Sure, there are certainly some failed lateral drop highlights that aren’t the most flattering for Du Plessis if you dig deep enough, but the 31-year-old has his head in the right place in regards to timing and tactics.

For example, Du Plessis may not prioritize position over submission in the classic sense, but the South African fighter is good about using said submissions to transition into superior positions that allow him to get off damage.

Should the South African come into the fight with the intention to take Strickland down, then Du Plessis will need to come correct with his setups and executions if he means to have a chance at controlling the American this time around.

Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win; but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful shuck-by’s from the body lock position that allows him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident a few years back).

And since having his takedown defense tested more toward the top of the division, Stickland has done a decent job when it comes to separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright.

Strickland also appears fairly flexible in scrambles, showing a solid sense of hip awareness and leg dexterity to boot.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Du Plessis -215 and Strickland +164 via FanDuel.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland prediction, pick

Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland, UFC 297

Despite scoring their first outing for Strickland, I can see what the money, once again, is trickling toward Du Plessis as we inch closer to fight day.

Aside from appearing to be the most unkillable middleweight since Marvin Vettori, Du Plessis has proven his effectiveness and doggedness on this championship run. And though it can feel like you’re watching an episode of “OZ” with the way Du Plessis interacts with his head coach in the corner, there’s no denying the level of preparation and game planning that Morne Visser has instilled into this pupil.

In fact, with rematches often coming down to adjustments, the presence in the corners will be an undeniably crucial aspect in this contest.

For that reason, I don’t blame anyone for taking a flier on the underdog in this spot given that Strickland will have MMA mastermind Eric Nicksick in his corner. I may be biased when it comes to Nicksick, but the man has proven to be a key and crucial ingredient for a few UFC champions in his young career – so expect Strickland and his team to come in equally prepared.

Still, it’s ultimately down to the fighters to execute, which is why I find myself reluctantly changing my pick this time around.

Although I have ties to Strickland’s home gym of Xtreme Couture, I genuinely try my best to put aside any perceived biases when breaking down these fights. And as an analyst who is trying his best to be unbiased, I can honestly say that Strickland is a harder fighter to trust than Du Plessis from an execution standpoint.

For my gym’s sake, I hope I’m wrong – but the official pick is for Du Plessis to dog out another decision win.

Prediction: Du Plessis by decision

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland start time, where to watch

As the main event, Du Plessis and Strickland are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight airs via ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 312.