Crimson Sox Prolong Defensive Phenom Ceddanne Rafaela

A month after signing beginning pitcher Brayan Bello to a six-year extension, the Boston Crimson Sox are at it once more, this time extending rookie heart fielder Ceddanne Rafaela on an eight-year deal price $50 million. If Rafaela sticks within the majors lengthy sufficient this season to earn a 12 months of service time, this extension will delay his free agent eligibility for 2 years; both manner, he’ll be paid a assured wage by the 2031 season.

How you are feeling about Rafaela comes down to simply what you consider his protection. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin rated Rafaela as the one prospect on THE BOARD final 12 months with a 70 current worth for protection and the one one with a future worth of 80. They have been hardly alone of their reward for his glove, both, as different retailers resembling Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline additionally gave complimentary opinions to his leathercraft.

Whereas prospect writers have sometimes missed on the eventual defensive efficiency of prospects – Gregory Polanco involves thoughts – Rafaela actually hasn’t proven something in his restricted time within the majors that refutes these views. Measuring minor league protection, versus viewing it, is fraught with apparent peril, however the defensive estimates that ZiPS makes use of for minor leaguers additionally love his glove. ZiPS makes use of a Complete Zone-esque measure from Gameday hit places, much like Sean Smith’s methodology from almost 15 years in the past. Sure, we’d favor to have one thing like OAA or DRS and even UZR for minor leaguers publicly out there, however we don’t, so we’ve got to usually be extra conservative about conclusions drawn from the information. However for what it’s price, these estimates, which I name zDEF, had Rafaela as an elite defensive heart fielder within the minors in 2023.

By the way, zDEF had Rafaela at +3 as a shortstop whole for his minor league profession, so if the circumstances warranted it, it wouldn’t essentially be the craziest factor to see him comply with within the footsteps of one other former Crimson Sox prospect, Mookie Betts, and transfer again to shortstop sooner or later, although that actually will not be why Boston signed Rafaela long run.

Let’s run the eight-year ZiPS for Rafaela.

All advised, ZiPS would fortunately supply him an eight-year, $67 million — $17 million greater than what the Crimson Sox gave him.

One factor to consider: As long as Rafaela’s glove is great, he doesn’t must take an enormous offensive step ahead to be price his contract. ZiPS has Rafaela hitting for a skosh extra energy, sufficient to get his OPS+ and wRC+ into the 100 vary throughout his peak years, however not ample to make him a famous person. Consequently, his projections maintain him within the solidly above-average territory – he’ll doubtless have an All-Star look or two throughout an up 12 months – however comfortably under star standing. These offensive numbers make him barely higher offensively than the inevitable comp given for him, Jackie Bradley Jr., who put up a 93 OPS+ over elements of eight seasons in Boston and was a number of runs higher defensively than Rafaela’s projections. Suffice it to say, if ZiPS’s pure conservatism with minor league defensive numbers finally ends up lowballing Rafaela, he’d be a steal at this value and put up WAR numbers within the vary of Kevin Kiermaier’s greatest years.

As an offensive participant, Rafaela stays a piece in progress. In 9 video games this season getting into Tuesday, he’s hitting .233/.286/.400 with two triples and an 85 wRC+. He’s really gotten higher at making contact, going from a 69% contact fee at Triple-A final 12 months to 73% within the majors to this point. Admittedly, this enchancment has are available in a small pattern — he’s made simply 124 massive league plate appearances mixed between his 2023 late-season debut (72.1% contact in 89 PA) and this 12 months (76.3% in his 35 PA) — however it’s nonetheless encouraging.

That mentioned, he stays far too aggressive on the plate, particularly when you think about his particular profile as a hitter. Not like his teammate Rafael Devers, who additionally swings at a reasonably excessive fee of pitches out of the zone, Rafaela doesn’t hit the ball significantly exhausting; Devers has energy to spare, so despite the fact that he doesn’t make as a lot exhausting contact on pitches out of the zone — his common exit velocity drops to 85.5 mph, down from 94.9 mph on in-zone pitches — he can nonetheless do injury. Rafaela doesn’t have that luxurious. As an alternative, he’s a speedster (rating twenty eighth in dash velocity this season amongst 202 certified gamers) who performs his house video games at Fenway Park, one in all baseball’s greatest parks for batting common. He must be incentivized to have a extra contact-oriented recreation than most different batters. His contact expertise seem like enhancing, however he gained’t get essentially the most out of his recreation if he retains chasing pitches that’s he unlikely to hit.

The Betts commerce and the departure of Xander Bogaerts are nonetheless, rightfully, ache factors for Boston followers. However since then, the Crimson Sox appear to be making a greater effort to retain the gamers they develop, first with the Devers extension in January 2023 and now with Bello and Rafaela. Finally, profitable is the one factor that may make issues higher in Boston. Conserving Rafaela on the town must be an necessary step towards that.