The upcoming UFC main event between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo is a high-stakes bantamweight title eliminator, set for Saturday, May 3, 2025, at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. Both fighters are top-five contenders aiming for a shot at the UFC bantamweight title, making this a pivotal bout in the division.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – Odds
Cory Sandhagen has consistently been the heavy favorite in the betting markets along with UFC betting advice from FIRST.com. Early lines opened with Sandhagen around -400 (implied probability ~80%), and as fight week progressed, his odds shortened further to as much as -550 at some sportsbooks.
Deiveson Figueiredo, by contrast, has been a substantial underdog, moving from approximately +300 to as high as +410, reflecting a market consensus that Sandhagen is the more likely winner. Some international books have offered slightly tighter odds, but the consensus remains clear: Sandhagen is expected to win.
Odds for the method of victory also reflect this dynamic. Cory Sandhagen by decision is commonly priced around +166 to +180, while a finish (KO/TKO or submission) is longer, indicating bookmakers expect a competitive but ultimately clear win for Sandhagen, most likely on the scorecards. The over/under for rounds is set at 4.5, with the over favored, further suggesting expectations of a drawn-out, technical fight rather than an early stoppage.
While Figueiredo is dangerous early and possesses strong grappling and finishing ability, his lower output and potential cardio issues make him less likely to win a decision unless he scores a finish in the first half of the fight. Sandhagen’s style is built on movement, range control, and cardio, which are expected to wear down the older Figueiredo, who has shown signs of slowing in later rounds.
Most analysts and betting experts predict Cory Sandhagen will win by decision, using his jab, leg kicks, and movement to neutralize Figueiredo’s power and grappling threats. However, there is always a risk of an upset, as Figueiredo’s submission and knockout skills are elite, and he has a history of finishing fights against top competition.
This fight is a de facto title eliminator. Both men are ranked in the top five and are among the highest-ranked bantamweights yet to face current champion Merab Dvalishvili. A win almost certainly secures a title shot or a number-one contender’s bout later in the year. For the loser, especially Figueiredo at age 37, the path back to title contention becomes much steeper, making this a potential last-chance scenario for both.
