Cooperstown Pocket book: The 2024 Progress Report, Half II

Francisco Lindor delivered a intestine punch final evening — or somewhat two of them, homering from each side of the plate Wednesday evening at Yankee Stadium and powering the Mets to a 12-3 rout and a four-game sweep of this 12 months’s Subway Sequence. After a sluggish begin, the 30-year-old switch-hitting shortstop has been on hearth since transferring into the leadoff spot in mid-Could. He’s helped the Mets flip their season round, given himself a shot at replicating final 12 months’s 30-homer, 30-stolen base mixture, and burnished a resumé that may in all probability carry him to Cooperstown in the future.

The Mets already led 3-2 when Lindor got here to bat with one on within the fifth inning. Batting from the left facet towards a scuffling Gerrit Cole, he smoked a 92-mph cutter on the inside fringe of the strike zone, launching a towering shot into the second deck in proper subject to open up a 5-2 lead. With the rating 8-2 within the seventh and two males on, he hit righty towards lefty Caleb Ferguson and crushed a 95-mph middle-middle fastball for a 432-foot three-run homer to left middle:

The homers had been Lindor’s twentieth and twenty first of the season. Paired along with his 20 steals, he’s on tempo to match or high final 12 months’s mixture of 31 homers and 31 steals and be a part of Ronald Acuña Jr. as the one energetic gamers with two 30-30 seasons underneath their belts; Bobby Witt Jr. (18 homers and 23 steals) and José Ramírez (24 homers and 18 steals) may be a part of him as nicely. After batting simply .195/.268/.362 (82 wRC+) by Could 17, primarily whereas hitting second or third, he’s hit .306/.388/.566 (171 wRC+) with 14 homers in 268 PA out of the leadoff spot. The Mets had been 20-24 when supervisor Carlos Mendoza made the transfer, however they’re 33-24 since, half a recreation behind the Cardinals (34-24) for the Nationwide League’s finest document. They now occupy the second NL Wild Card spot, and as an alternative of a much-anticipated sell-off forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re more likely to be consumers.

Lindor’s sluggish begin and .259 batting common — his newest in a string of modest ones — fed into him being left off the All-Star squad for the fourth season in a row, however because of his energy and defensive worth, his 4.9 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR each rank third within the NL. Per ZiPS, he’s projected so as to add one other 2.4 WAR this season. If he does that or comes moderately shut, he’ll surpass 40 bWAR for his seven-year peak — his seven finest seasons at giant, to be used in JAWS calculations — a robust indicator of future election to the Corridor of Fame. Till final 12 months, I’d by no means accomplished the mathematics, however with the 2024 Corridor election cycle behind us, over three-quarters of the eligible place gamers with at the very least 40.0 WAR of their finest seven seasons are enshrined:

At each place, I’ve counted the entire variety of gamers with a peak WAR of at the very least 40.0; the variety of Corridor of Famers assembly that criterion; and the variety of such gamers not but eligible, both as a result of they’re energetic, too not too long ago retired to look on a poll, or on the completely ineligible record. The final of these classifications applies to Pete Rose (whom JAWS classifies as a left fielder) and Shoeless Joe Jackson (proper subject). For catchers, I’ve used a 32.0-WAR threshold as an alternative of 40.0, as their values are constrained by the boundaries of enjoying time and pre-framing measures. The proportion could be even larger if I had been to account for gamers linked to performance-enhancing medicine, however I’m completely satisfied sufficient to have this three-quarters rule of thumb as it’s.

Ramírez crossed the 40-WAR threshold final 12 months, whereas Lindor is one among 4 gamers who ZiPS initiatives to take action this 12 months; Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman, and Marcus Semien are the others, with Carlos Correa having a shot as nicely. Eight different energetic gamers have already reached that threshold.

With that, it’s time to dive into Half II of my annual Corridor of Fame progress report; Half I, overlaying pitchers, is right here. Except in any other case indicated, all present WAR figures use the Baseball Reference model, which had not been up to date to replicate Wednesday’s video games by the point I filed this, and so all statistics are by Tuesday as nicely besides the place indicated (as in Lindor’s numbers above). All rest-of-season projections use the ZiPS’ Depth Charts model, which contains enjoying time estimates.

Catcher

Realmuto’s 2023 season (.252/.310/.452, 102 wRC+, 1.5 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR) was his worst 12 months since his 2011 rookie marketing campaign. The 33-year-old backstop is within the midst of one other robust season, batting .259/.315/.403 (102 wRC+) with a career-high 26% strikeout fee, and whereas his Statcast numbers are on par with these from final 12 months, he’s fallen 44 factors in need of his xSLG, probably as a result of he’s pulling the ball much less. Extra damagingly, after enjoying at the very least 130 video games in six out of seven full seasons between 2016–23, he missed six weeks on account of a meniscectomy on his proper knee, the longest absence of his profession. He returned to motion simply final Saturday.

Early in his profession, Realmuto was nicely under common as a pitch framer (-31.5 runs by FanGraphs’ methodology in 2015–16), however after enhancing to the purpose of being 8.6 runs above common as not too long ago as 2021, he slid to 12.2 runs under common final 12 months and is at -4.1 this 12 months. That’s not accounted for in JAWS, the place he ranks twenty ninth, however his total framing numbers (-21.6 FRM) don’t assist him the way in which the numbers for upcoming candidates Buster Posey (128.8 FRM) or Yadier Molina (151.1 FRM, plus one other 30.0 runs per Baseball Prospectus’ methodology for pre-2008 framing) do. With simply three All-Star picks and two Gold Gloves (no small job in a league with Molina), Realmuto should depend on his bat to make his case for Cooperstown, and proper now I’m not so optimistic he can.

Rightly beloved by Royals followers provided that he was the MVP of the 2015 World Sequence and a foundational piece of the workforce’s back-to-back pennants, Perez has a resumé topped by 9 All-Star picks and 5 Gold Gloves. That 48-homer season from a pair years in the past turned some heads and began some arguments; he holds the document for many homers in a season by a participant who caught at the very least 50% of his video games, which doesn’t equal “the document for residence runs by a catcher,” which is 42 by Javier Lopez in 2003, if we’re speaking in regards to the strict cut up; Perez hit 33 as a catcher and one other 15 in his 40 video games as a DH, which isn’t the identical factor, although it’s nonetheless an amazing season.

The 34-year-old Perez is hitting a strong .279/.340/.472, with a 120 wRC+ and a couple of.1 WAR, that whereas spending much less time behind the plate than ordinary; he’s obtained a 58-56 edge in video games caught over Freddy Fermin, accompanied by 25 video games at first and 19 at DH. From a worth standpoint, his actual downside is that he’s obtained the second-lowest complete of framing runs (-117.2) amongst all catchers since 2008, which is to say that he’s practically 270 runs worse than Molina in that span alone, although nonetheless practically 50 runs forward of poor Ryan Doumit. That information can’t merely be waved away now that we’ve got it; this isn’t Derek Jeter’s horrible protection offset by 3,465 hits and 5 championships. Perez’s profession Framing-Inclusive JAWS (fJAWS) line, with that information integrated into his valuation, is simply 17.2 profession fWAR, 14.8 peak fWAR, and 16.0 fJAWS, miles behind the marks of Posey (57.5/47.7/52.6), Molina (58.6/39.5/49.1), and Joe Mauer (56.8/42.4/49.6). It’s additionally miles behind Russell Martin (58.2/39.8/49.0) and Brian McCann (53.4/39.9/46.7), each of whom are possible doomed to be undervalued by voters at the same time as they anoint Molina on the idea of a “repute” that’s moderately nicely supported by these defensive numbers.

First Base

Given his back-to-back seasons of -0.1 WAR, the Reds understandably declined the $20 million membership choice on the finish of Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal, and after a winter of unemployment, he lastly signed a minor league take care of the Blue Jays. Sadly, he rolled his proper ankle after homering in his solely Grapefruit League plate look, subsequently battled decrease again points, and didn’t start a rehab project till June 15. After hitting simply .186/.321/.326 in 53 PA at two low-level stops, he reinjured his ankle throughout pregame warmups for his debut at Triple-A Buffalo on Friday. So it goes.

Suffice it to say that if the 40-year-old Votto hasn’t reached the tip of the road but, he’s awfully shut. With seven on-base titles, six All-Star picks, a Gold Glove, an MVP award, 2,135 hits, and 356 homers, his counting stats aren’t overwhelming, however he’s cleared the height and JAWS requirements for first basemen, rating ninth within the former class and twelfth within the latter, forward of the just-inducted Todd Helton in each. Throw in his standing as a media favourite, and I feel we’ll see him in Cooperstown quickly sufficient.

Goldschmidt gained NL MVP honors as a 34-year-old in 2022, however two seasons later, he’s displaying his age. What initially regarded like a very sluggish begin changed into a spot on my current Alternative Degree Killers record, as he’s hitting a meager .226/.287/.370 (88 wRC+) with 14 homers. His high quality of contact isn’t as dangerous as his numbers recommend (he’s obtained a .446 xSLG, for one factor), however his strikeout fee has spiked practically six proportion factors to a career-worst 29.2%, and his protection has slipped into the purple.

Even so, Goldschmidt has seven All-Star appearances and 4 Gold Gloves to go along with his MVP award. He’s obtained 354 residence runs, and with successful on Wednesday evening is simply two away from the all-important 2,000-hit milestone. He’s seventeenth in JAWS, lifeless even with the usual (53.4), and thirteenth in peak rating. I do suppose he’s able to a rebound, however it could nicely come someplace apart from St. Louis, as he’s a pending free agent. He’s not fairly as much as Helton or Votto both by the normal numbers or the superior ones; I feel he’ll wind up enshrined, however he may actually fortify his probabilities with at the very least yet another strong season earlier than taking over everlasting residence in replacement-level territory.

Suffice it to say that Los Angeles agrees with Freeman. He set a profession excessive in WAR final 12 months with 6.5, and is projected to surpass 18.0 WAR for his first three seasons in Dodger blue, with these accounting for 3 of his 4 highest single-season WAR marks. On that observe, he’s added 7.0 WAR (and 5.1 JAWS) since I ran although this train a 12 months in the past. The 34-year-old first baseman simply made his eighth All-Star look and is hitting .288/.394/.495; his slugging proportion is his lowest mark since 2016, however his 150 wRC+ is the fourth-highest full-season mark of his profession.

In different phrases, Freeman remains to be going sturdy, and with 2,221 hits, he’s obtained a sensible shot at 3,000 as nicely — through Dan Szymborski, he’s obtained a 49% probability — as 400 homers (he has 337). His peak isn’t as excessive as these of Goldschmidt or Votto, however he’s nicely forward each when it comes to the Invoice James Corridor of Fame Monitor — which dishes out credit score for issues which have tended to sway voters, corresponding to seasons with 30 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs, careers with a .300 common or higher, awards, league leads in key stats, and playoff appearances — because of all these .300 seasons and his championship; he has 130 factors to Goldschmdit’s 105 and Votto’s 89. He’s poised to succeed in the 40-WAR peak threshold, and by this time subsequent 12 months, might be across the JAWS normal for the place. With that, he’ll possible head into the again half of his 30s extra extensively considered as a future Corridor of Famer than both of these contemporaries — or Helton, for that matter.

Second Base

After struggling a damaged proper thumb within the World Baseball Basic final 12 months, Altuve performed simply 90 video games, although he wielded a potent bat, hitting for a 154 wRC+. The pint-sized 34-year-old is again right down to a extra consultant 129 wRC+ (.304/.350/.452), however in contrast to so lots of his teammates, he’s been wholesome all season, totaling 14 homers and 15 steals in 98 video games. He’s been uncharacteristically free-swinging; his 39% chase fee is over eight proportion factors forward of final 12 months and represents his highest mark since his 2011 rookie season. His 5.8% stroll fee is about 5 factors under final 12 months and is his lowest mark since 2015, whereas his 19.4% strikeout fee is a profession excessive.

Whereas it’s not a typical Altuve season, he’s making progress in direction of Cooperstown. He’s projected to succeed in the 40-WAR peak mark this 12 months, and would leapfrog 2025 candidates Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler to maneuver into nineteenth in JAWS if he matches the above projection. He simply made his ninth All-Star workforce; solely eight second basemen have been chosen extra usually. He’s run his hit complete to 2,170, and now has a 42% probability to succeed in 3,000, larger than any participant beside Freeman. The additional we get from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the much less it appears more likely to have an effect on his Corridor probabilities, significantly given experiences that he rejected the assistance offered by the trash can signaling system. Between that and the absence of up to date second basemen who may acquire entry (Kinsler, Pedroia, and twice-suspended Robinson Canó), he’s obtained an open lane to Cooperstown as long as he can keep on the sector.

Like Freeman, Semien has banked 7.0 WAR since final 12 months’s train, and he’s gotten much more mileage out of it, including 6.1 JAWS. Whereas he’s performed solely 585 video games at second base in comparison with 813 at shortstop, he’s now labeled at this place as a result of he’s been extra helpful right here.

Semien obtained a relatively late begin for Corridor functions, enjoying simply 85 video games with 1.4 WAR earlier than his age-24 season in 2015, and with three All-Star picks and one Gold Glove, he’s a bit of mild in honors, although after all he took residence a World Sequence ring final 12 months, and completed third within the MVP voting for the third time. He’s put himself on the radar by combining spectacular energy (a excessive of 45 homers in 2021, and 55 throughout ’22-23), glorious protection (49 DRS for the reason that begin of 2021), and sturdiness (he performed 161 or extra video games 4 instances from 2019–23). Due to seasons of 8.5 WAR in 2019, 7.1 in ’21, and an American League-high 7.4 WAR final 12 months, he’s outproduced everybody besides Mookie Betts (44.5 WAR) and Aaron Choose (40.4 WAR) for the reason that begin of 2019, and is closing in on the 40-WAR peak threshold. He initiatives to climb to twenty third within the JAWS rankings this 12 months, and whereas he nonetheless has work to do, the heaviest lifting is already accomplished.

Shortstop

Including to what I wrote above, Lindor entered the season second in homers, fourth in steals, and fifth in wRC+ (132) amongst shortstops. By DRS — which is utilized in bWAR — his protection has been merely common, however by Statcast’s FRV, he’s six runs above common; the latter system now values him larger by 50 runs relative to the previous (97-47), and that’s with out Statcast offering fielding information for Lindor’s 2015 rookie season. His 15.7 WAR for the reason that begin of 2022 ranks sixth, behind solely Choose, Betts, Juan Soto, Freeman, and Semien; if he hits his projection, he could have banked 18.1 WAR over these three seasons. E book this man a spot on subsequent 12 months’s All-Star workforce already.

When he’s been obtainable this season, Correa has hit .308/.377/.520 for a 152 wRC+, his highest mark since 2017, however he’s performed simply 75 video games, lacking 16 in April on account of an indirect pressure and touchdown on the IL final weekend on account of one other bout of plantar fasciitis. His 346 video games for the reason that begin of 2022 are 76 fewer than Lindor, and he was subpar final season (96 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) whereas enjoying by plantar fasciitis, which helps to clarify the 2 shortstops’ 2.6-point relative swing in JAWS since this time final 12 months. That stated, Correa is 10 months youthful than Lindor, so trailing him at this juncture is hardly inappropriate.

That is already Correa’s seventh-best season by WAR, so he has a shot to succeed in the 40-WAR peak threshold this season if he could make a well timed return and play as much as his capabilities. He’s nonetheless listening to it from some followers relating to the Astros’ sign-stealing, however with present candidate Carlos Beltrán trending in direction of eventual election (he obtained 57.1% in his second 12 months of eligibility) and Altuve destined to hit the poll years forward of him, Correa most likely gained’t be singled out for exclusion from the Corridor primarily based upon his participation within the scheme.

Additionally: Xander Bogaerts is a second baseman now, and after a tough begin to his season, he missed practically eight weeks on account of a left shoulder fracture. To this point he’s obtained 0.1 WAR in his age-31 season, and he’s unlikely to to enhance upon the height rating of his 39.7/34.7/37.2 line this 12 months; with 4 seasons within the 3.8–4.9 WAR vary, he’ll have his probabilities down the highway. Trea Turner (35.7/30.3/33.0), who’s additionally in his age-31 season, missed over six weeks on account of a left hamstring pressure however has recovered as easily as one among his well-known pop-up slides, hitting a scorching .338/.385/.540 (160 wRC+) and beginning at shortstop for the NL within the All-Star Sport. He’s solely obtained 2.4 WAR, however something above 3.0 will elevate his peak rating. Corey Seager is aware of rather a lot about missed time and its affect on Corridor instances. He set a profession excessive with 6.9 WAR final season regardless of enjoying in simply 119 video games, and gained his second World Sequence MVP award. As he’s performed in 135 video games or extra simply thrice, there’s quite a lot of slack in his 34.9/30.8/32.9 line; his 3.1 WAR this 12 months, his age-30 season, is already his sixth-best mark, and he solely wants 3.9 WAR to get to his fourth-best — however he’s going to have to remain wholesome if he actually desires to make tracks in direction of Cooperstown.

I’ll embrace the third basemen with the outfielders and unicorns in Half III.