Chiefs-Texans: 5 issues to observe in Week 16

In Week 16 of the NFL season, the (13-1) Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will host the (9-5) Houston Texans as the 2 groups start a novel stretch of the schedule. They’ll sq. off at midday Arrowhead Time on Saturday. Then each will put together for an additional recreation on Christmas Day — which is on Wednesday.

Just like the Chiefs, the Texans have already clinched one of many AFC’s high 4 seeds by successful the AFC South. Kansas Metropolis must maintain successful to carry off the (10-3) Buffalo Payments as they fight for the No. 1 seed. Now within the fourth spot, Houston has an opportunity to maneuver as much as the No. 3 seed by selecting up extra victories.

Will probably be the primary matchup between the Chiefs’ celebrity quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Texans’ second-year franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud. Mahomes was a full participant in observe all week, working by means of the ankle sprain he sustained throughout Sunday’s 21-7 victory over the Cleveland Browns. He was not given an harm designation for Saturday’s recreation; he’s anticipated to play.

All of Chiefs Kingdom might be keeping track of the two-time MVP. Listed here are 5 different issues to observe on this matchup.

1. Avoiding detrimental performs on offense

In opposition to the Browns, the Chiefs shifted left guard Joe Thuney to left deal with and put reserve offensive lineman Mike Caliendo in Thuney’s spot. That association seemed sturdy for many of Sunday’s recreation — however on Saturday, it’ll get one other sturdy check. The Texans have the league’s second-most sacks (45) and stress price (38.2%).

The group is led by two stellar edge defenders: veteran Danielle Hunter has 12 sacks, primarily from the suitable facet of the offensive formation. Second-year EDGE Will Anderson Jr. has 10.5 sacks speeding from everywhere in the defensive entrance.

Defensive deal with Tim Settle — the first inside rusher — additionally has 5 sacks. He feels assured in Houston’s potential to get to Mahomes.

To maintain its offense in rhythm (and out of hassle), Kansas Metropolis will want a recreation plan much like what it utilized in Cleveland, when it constructed a 21-point lead with impactful runs and robust designs to get gamers open.

In that recreation, Mahomes prevented each sacks and turnovers. That can even be essential in opposition to Houston, which has the league’s third-best turnover differential (+13). It’s additionally essential that Mahomes is saved clear, which would require a dedication from each him and the offensive play-calling to keep away from these conditions.

2. Stifling the Texans’ dedication to run

In 2024, Houston has used Joe Mixon as a real workhorse operating again. Solely two others common extra speeding makes an attempt per recreation than Mixon (19.7).

He’ll face a Chiefs’ protection that’s nonetheless probably the greatest at stuffing run performs. The Chiefs are tied for permitting the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9). To place quarterback C.J. Stroud into disadvantageous positions, that pattern should proceed; the Texans rank twentieth in third-down conversion price (37.2%).

The defensive entrance’s effort to push the Texans into third-and-long may current actual alternatives to disrupt the pocket. Houston permits the league’s highest quarterback stress price (59%) on third downs of seven or extra yards — and the second-most sacks (16) in these conditions.

3. Taking away C.J. Stroud’s reference to Nico Collins

Since large receiver Nico Collins returned from harm in Week 11, the Texans have received three of 4 video games. The offense has been in a position to maintain the chains transferring as Collins has continued to show he’s one of many NFL’s finest younger receivers.

“He’s large and he’s quick,” defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo informed reporters on Thursday. “These 50-50 balls, he often comes down with them… We’ve got confronted these kind of fellows earlier than. Someway, a way, we now have to discover a strategy to pry it out of there. He has some sturdy palms and an amazing catch radius; the quarterback has all kinds of confidence in him. There are a few routes there that I feel they run exceptionally effectively that we determine we’re going to see.”

Cornerback Trent McDuffie will get a problem much like the one he confronted in opposition to the Denver Broncos’ large receiver Courtland Sutton. Saturday’s defensive success might come right down to how effectively the Chiefs can bottle up Collins on essential downs.

4. The return of Hollywood Brown

All indicators level to the veteran large receiver returning to motion in opposition to the Texans. Brown injured within the first preseason recreation, however was a full participant in observe this week after being designated to return from the crew’s Reserve/Injured listing. We anticipate the crew to activate him to the 53-man roster on Saturday.

This could give the Chiefs’ offense a right away increase within the vertical passing recreation. Thus far this season, Kansas Metropolis has primarily used pass-catchers who can discover zone home windows and make powerful catches in house. Rookie wideout Xavier Worthy has been the one receiver creating separation downfield — regardless that he and Mahomes are nonetheless working by means of that connection.

With Brown concerned, Houston should account for his downfield potential. With each Brown and Worthy on the sphere, they will create conflicts within the secondary — which ought to give the Chiefs extra possibilities to hit large performs.

5. Ending off drives

Ending within the pink zone has been a recurring drawback for the Chiefs’ offense — and might be essential in defeating the Texans, who’ve allowed touchdowns on 65% of their opponents’ red-zone drives — the league’s fifth-highest price.

In opposition to the Browns, the Chiefs scored touchdowns on their first two red-zone drives, utilizing artistic schemes and misdirection to fabricate open house for his or her receivers.

Since Houston is lacking linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair as a consequence of suspension, it needs to be weak. Al-Shaair and security Jalen Pitre — who had season-ending surgical procedure final week — are among the many crew’s finest second-level gamers.

So the Chiefs want to focus on the Texans’ linebackers and safeties in protection — particularly close to the top zone.