Chiefs Playoff Image Week 10: On the cusp of the playoffs once more

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs now stand 8-0 after notching a 30-24 time beyond regulation win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

9 weeks stay within the 2024 NFL season, through which Kansas Metropolis will play the Denver Broncos on GEHA Area at Arrowhead Stadium, go on the highway to play the Buffalo Payments and Carolina Panthers, return house for his or her second division video games versus the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, play the Cleveland Browns in Ohio, face the Houston Texans at house and end the season on the highway towards the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Broncos.

And sure… it’s usually every week or two later within the season earlier than we start this collection of articles. However that’s what occurs when Kansas Metropolis is the league’s solely undefeated staff — and the 2 AFC groups behind the Chiefs every have two losses.

Let’s check out the staff’s present playoff image. As we at all times do, we’ll use the New York Occasions playoff calculator to assist us determine what to anticipate. Extra particulars about the way it works are included on the finish of the article.

The Chiefs’ playoff image

Because it stands proper now the Kansas Metropolis has a better than 99% likelihood to make the playoffs, a 97% likelihood to win the AFC West, an 82% likelihood to win the only AFC bye and a 19% likelihood to win Tremendous Bowl LIX. No different staff at the moment has a greater likelihood to win the championship — and no different AFC staff even has a double-digit likelihood. The opposite groups with the most effective probabilities to win the Tremendous Bowl are each within the NFC: the Detroit Lions (16%) and the Philadelphia Eagles (14%).

The playoff calculator permits us to imagine the end result of any remaining video games after which see the way it adjustments issues. For now, we’re largely going to focus on what’s within the staff’s management. It’s simply too early within the season to be contemplating extra sophisticated situations.

How the Chiefs could make the playoffs

Proper now, it couldn’t be simpler: by defeating the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead on Sunday, Kansas Metropolis ought to be locked into its tenth consecutive playoff spot. That’s it — at the very least in response to the Occasions, which the one longstanding publication that has opened its annual playoff calculator.

How the Chiefs can win the AFC West

In the event that they win the subsequent 5 video games (the final of these towards the Chargers) — the Chiefs will win their ninth consecutive division title, which ensures at the very least one postseason house sport. Profitable the subsequent three video games would virtually clinch the division — so long as the Chargers additionally misplaced their video games to the Tennessee Titans.

How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye

Kansas Metropolis will clinch the AFC’s prime seed by profitable the subsequent seven video games, which might give it a 15-0 file because it heads into the Christmas Day sport towards the Steelers. (This may additionally tie the New England Patriots’ file for consecutive victories that embody postseason video games). It’s potential to create a state of affairs the place the Chiefs clinch the only postseason postseason bye with victories of their subsequent 5 matchups — nevertheless it includes 16 different video games falling precisely the correct approach.

The underside line

Kansas Metropolis controls its personal postseason future. They’re only a win away from the postseason — and in a matter of weeks, could possibly be wrapping up one more AFC West title. It’s a good time to be a Chiefs fan!

Concerning the New York Occasions playoff calculator

The calculator begins with an Elo score (and betting market data) for every NFL staff. This information is used to find out the relative power of each staff. That, in flip, is used to determine the chance that every staff will win every of its remaining video games. The rest of the season is simulated tens of hundreds of occasions — and the outcomes of those projections give us the possibilities quoted on this article.