Chiefs-Payments: 5 issues to look at in a pivotal AFC showdown

For the eighth time in 5 seasons, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (9-0) will tackle the Buffalo Payments (8-2) in a perennially necessary matchup. This yr’s regular-season bout will happen on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is ready for 3:25 PM Arrowhead time.

Will probably be the Chiefs’ third strive at bettering on a 9-0 report in franchise historical past. Victory would cement this yr in organizational lore, however it could actually assist in direction of carrying out the unprecedented activity of successful a third-consecutive Tremendous Bowl.

A profitable Sunday would give the Chiefs a four-game cushion for home-field benefit on Buffalo, the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Pittsburgh Steelers could be the one staff inside two video games of the highest spot within the convention.

The Payments might shut that margin to only one sport by taking good care of enterprise at dwelling. That makes this a pivotal second within the Chiefs’ season. Listed below are 5 issues to look at within the battle of AFC contenders:

1. Containing and disrupting Josh Allen

Payments’ quarterback Josh Allen has been one of many NFL’s cleanest passers this season, whether or not having the fifth-lowest interception fee amongst full-time starters or being sacked on the lowest fee in the identical class.

“He’s doing an awesome job with the ball,” Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid stated of Allen on Wednesday. “He’s utilizing everyone, and he’s not forcing something in there, clearly. I feel he’s doing nice together with his decision-making.”

The 4 interceptions have come within the final three video games, however all 4 got here throughout the construction of the play. Allen has managed chaos properly this season — rating fifth amongst certified passers in EPA per dropback underneath stress — as a result of he’s nice at escaping and lengthening a disrupted play by throwing or operating.

Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wants penetrative cross rush, and wishes the entrance 4 to corral Allen with out blitz assist. Allen registers a 128.4 passer ranking versus the blitz, with a league-leading 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

“He runs like a fullback,” Spagnuolo described on Thursday. “We all know what we’re in for, we’ve gone towards him fairly a bit, we’ve got plenty of respect for him, we’ve got our work minimize out with him.”

On cross downs, a linebacker will seemingly control Allen for that reason. Former Chief Willie Homosexual Jr. primarily dealt with that function previously.

2. Patrick Mahomes coping with dependable targets

Since large receiver DeAndre Hopkins entered the combo, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has discovered a greater rhythm. He has accomplished 72% of his passes over the past three weeks, with six touchdowns to just one interception.

Now large receiver Juju Smith-Schuster is ready to return: he was taken off the ultimate damage report, recovered from a hamstring damage suffered in Week 7.

It provides Mahomes three cross catchers that may share the sector, all with veteran expertise and toughness to beat disciplined zone protection.

Every is able to find the voids left by large receiver Xavier Worthy demanding security consideration, nevertheless it’s simpler stated than accomplished towards the Payments’ protection.

“[The Bills] do an awesome job of being actually, actually good at their scheme with nice gamers,” Mahomes famous throughout Wednesday’s press convention. “Then they flip the ball over… as a way to win this sport, we’re going to need to play our greatest soccer.”

Coming off a Week 10 efficiency with missed alternatives, Mahomes sees the significance of getting as many dependable choices as attainable towards a Buffalo protection that has pressured the second-most turnovers within the NFL (19).

3. Sustaining and ending possessions

The Chiefs have the longest possessions on common within the NFL (3:23), fueled by a run sport that ranks fourth in speeding success fee.

These two components have been already necessary in beating the Payments and preserving the protection recent to assault Allen, nevertheless it has turn out to be extra important that these lengthy drives finish in touchdowns. Kicker Harrison Butker was positioned on Injured Reserve this week. The Chiefs signed Spencer Shrader off the New York Jets observe squad as a alternative.

The efforts of operating again Kareem Hunt might be relied on to enter scoring place — the Payments permit the third-highest common of speeding yards per carry within the NFL — however the crimson zone and goal-to-go offense has to execute. The Payments give up the eighth-lowest landing conversion fee contained in the 20-yard line.

4. Attacking the Payments’ offense on first down

The Payments’ offense ranks fifteenth in third-down conversion share, a section of the sport the Chiefs must win by forcing third-and-long. Meaning creating adverse performs and enjoying stout early within the down.

This season, solely two groups have allowed fewer yards per play on first down (4.7) than the Chiefs. The majority of that comes from run protection, which can should be on its A sport towards the Payments’ elusive operating again James Prepare dinner. He ranks sixth amongst certified backs in speeding success fee.

5. Key matchups for Chiefs’ protection

When Allen does drop again, James Prepare dinner is simply as harmful. 9 of his 20 receptions this season have moved the chains or scored. He would be the precedence for Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties on cross downs, particularly as a result of beginning tight finish Dalton Kincaid has been dominated out as a consequence of a knee damage he suffered in final week’s win.

Dawson Knox is a viable substitute and can look to proceed exploiting a Chiefs’ protection that has allowed essentially the most receiving yards to that place this season.

With rookie large receiver Keon Coleman already dominated out, all eyes might be on veteran large receiver Amari Cooper, who’s questionable to play. Chiefs’ high cornerback Trent McDuffie will seemingly match up with Payments’ slot receiver Khalil Shakir nearly all of the time, so Cooper’s presence might be a giant mismatch towards the Chiefs’ hampered cornerback group.