Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Before the AFC Championship almost two weeks ago, almost all of our Arrowhead Pride panelists picked the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Buffalo Bills in a close game. For the third time this season (and the second consecutive game), our aggregate prediction for a 30-25 Kansas City victory had eight points of error from the 32-29 final: it missed the point spread by two points, the Chiefs’ score by two and the Bills’ score by four. Almost one in five of our readers picked Buffalo to win — most calling for a close game.

On Sunday, the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles will host the AFC Champion Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

You might look at the offensive talent in this game and think a shootout is coming, but I think it will be a low-possession game. The Eagles want to run the football and avoid committing turnovers. On defense, their style is to give up long drives of underneath throws, forcing the opponent to matriculate the ball downfield. The Chiefs are fine playing that style — and will attempt to limit Philadelphia’s explosive runs. I think we’re going to see an awesome game from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. While it might not be the best statline for a Mahomes Super Bowl, the big plays he’ll make on third down will swing the game. As long as the game is tight — and he can make high-leverage plays in the fourth quarter — he will do it. I think he will cement his status as the greatest quarterback ever.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 20

I’m certain that most Kansas City players very much want to claim a third straight Super Bowl win. But the team has already made history by becoming the only back-to-back Super Bowl winner to reach the next title game. That means the pressure is off — and there is no more dangerous opponent than a Chiefs team with nothing to lose. There’s no question the Eagles will be a strong opponent. Even so, I don’t think this game will be as close as many people think.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 17

In two of the Eagles’ three losses this season, running back Saquon Barkley was held under 100 yards. That could be the key to a Kansas City victory. If the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead — forcing Philadelphia into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy attack — they’ll have a chance to control the game more easily than many expect. I believe the Chiefs will do just that. With history on the line, Kansas City will deliver its best performance of the season, playing with sharp execution across the board. Expect the Chiefs to frequently put the Eagles in third-and-long situations, get stops on defense and dictate the tempo. Kansas City will make history with a surprisingly easy win.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 20

No matter what the storylines have been during the 2024 NFL season, the matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles feels like the most star-studded, talent-centric matchup we could have. We’re going to see elite players battling on both sides of the ball. There’s a case to be made that Philadelphia presents more of these playmakers, but that’s where Kansas City’s coaching will balance the scale. But it will ultimately be Mahomes who tips the game toward the Chiefs as he completes his Michael Jordan arc and makes NFL history. In key moments in the red zone, third down and fourth down, he will get the job done.

Chiefs 32, Eagles 28

In 334 B.C., Alexander the Great told his men to burn their ships. “We will either return home in Persian ships — or we will die here,” he said. 1,850 years later, Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés employed the same tactic in Mexico as he began his campaign against the Aztecs. This is the mentality the Chiefs will need. There is no going back from this moment. They will either claim immortality or be forever remembered as the team that came up short. It’s the Chiefs’ choice to make. It always has been. Mahomes and his offense need to methodically move the football downfield. Meanwhile, coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive gambles need to pay off in big moments — like they have all season — as his unit stops Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. This is a team of destiny. Get ready to see a three-peat!

Chiefs 27, Eagles 23

In the NFC Championship, the Eagles looked unstoppable. But I still trust the Chiefs to avoid the turnovers that plagued the Washington Commanders — not to mention the late miscues the Los Angeles Rams committed the week before. Just like Christian McCaffrey did last year, Barkley will see some good moments. But I believe Kansas City will focus on efficient drives that minimize his opportunities for damage. During the second half, however, I expect the Chiefs’ defense will make this a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Hurts is good, but Mahomes will make the extra two or three key plays to claim the win.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 24

How do I even go about predicting this game? Andy Reid said the Chiefs have a Super Bowl routine, so why can’t I? So I looked back at some previous predictions for the championship game. It turns out the Chiefs just played a Super Bowl against these Eagles a couple of years ago — and my prediction was pretty solid.

This game could actually go either way. It’s a rare Super Bowl that actually has the two best teams in the league facing off — and they are very evenly matched on paper. But the game isn’t played on paper. Those who argue that Philadelphia has the best roster from No. 2 to No. 53 are missing the point. It’s the quarterback — along with the head coach — who matter the most. And one just shouldn’t bet against the MVP and Andy Reid. Given the Tyreek Hill trade and the youth movement, After winning the last two Super Bowls, we can’t expect a Chiefs Super Bowl three-peat this year — but now that the opportunity is on the table, it feels like the team absolutely can’t let it slip away. When the Chiefs have the ball, Mahomes, Kadarius Toney Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce will have plenty of opportunities to get an early lead. Then the Kansas City defense can focus on stopping the run, forcing Jalen Hurts to try and win the game with his arm. That will allow Steve Spagnuolo to unleash the blitz to stomp out any hope for a comeback.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 24

Two years after their first championship matchup in Super Bowl LVII, I think both defenses have steadily improved, and I expect a lower-scoring game than the first time around. Patrick Mahomes has been talking about this game since shortly after last year’s Super Bowl. I think Mahomes outplays Jalen Hurts in the biggest spot imaginable, willing the Chiefs to NFL immortality.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 24

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 28-23.

What do you think?

For the AFC Championship, Nate Christensen (30-27) and Pete Sweeney (31-30) turned in the closest picks. Each missed by four total points. Matt Stgner’s call for a 35-28 Kansas City victory was second-best with eight points of error.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.