Chiefs’ Draft Scenario: What does a trade-up look like?

Leading into the NFL Draft, we’ll develop different mock draft scenarios and what the Kansas City Chiefs should do in response to those situations. These aren’t predictions on what we think will happen, but the right course of action should the specific circumstance play out.

One of the most common discussions in the NFL Draft is whether to trade up, down or stay at a current pick. Today, we’re going to discuss what a trade-up scenario might look like for the Chiefs.

The first question to ask is, who are the players worth trading up for? For the Chiefs’ specific needs, I’d call out three positions that it would make sense to trade up for:

Offensive tackle
Defensive end
Defensive tackle

What players would make sense to trade up for?

Here’s a list of players that the Chiefs could reasonably get into range to acquire:

Offensive tackle: Josh Simmons, Josh Conerly Jr., Kelvin Banks Jr., Aireontae Ersery
Defensive end: Shemar Stewart, Mike Green, Mykel Williams
Defensive tackle: Derrick Harmon, Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen

Now, with those players, there’s a wide range of where they could go. Some of these players could go in the low teens, between 19-24, and 25-28. Each of these ranges would require a different price to trade up. If we break it down by ranges, here’s how I would tier the players:

13-18: Harmon, Grant, Nolen, Stewart
19-24: Simmons, Conerly Jr., Green, Williams
25-28: Banks, Ersery

After thinking about these tiers and where the best value for the Chiefs could be, I landed on one player that I think it would make sense for the Chiefs to trade up for:

Round 1 (24): Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon

Trade Details: 31, 95, 2026 4th Round pick via Kansas City to Minnesota

When identifying natural trade partners, the Vikings make the most sense. The Vikings have four total picks in this draft — 24, 97, 139, and 187. They will want to get more picks during the draft at some point.

For the trade package, I used the Rich Hill trade value chart to get a fair trade. The 24th pick is worth 237 points, while the 31st is worth 190. Pick 95 would get to the Chiefs to 230, so a Day 3 pick would make it equal value, but I included the 2026 4th as an extra premium to incentivize the Vikings to make this trade.

By getting to 24, we get above the Texans, Rams and Ravens, who all might look at offensive tackle as a need.

Now, why is Conerly worth trading up for? As this process has gone on, I’ve become higher on Conerly:

Conerly’s tape shows signs of high-end pass protection at left tackle. My favorite aspects of his game are his light feet and ability to get out of his stance. Conerly can vary his pass sets and is comfortable operating on an island. He does a great job mirroring his feet to the pass rusher, which keeps him in an optimal position and reduces the need for recovery. Conerly is an explosive, agile athlete I trust can hold up on an island.

Conerly is slightly undersized for an Andy Reid tackle — he comes in at 6’4 1/2, 311 lbs, and 33 1/2” arms. Reid typically likes arms above 34 inches, but in this class, it’s hard to find an athlete and pass protector of Conerly’s caliber who also has the length Reid desires. Beggars can’t be choosers.

One area Conerly needs to improve is his strength. Conerly doesn’t often get pushed around, which is encouraging, but as a run blocker, he doesn’t move people enough. He struggles on the front side of runs to move a defensive end, operating better on the backside. However, I think his age and frame suggest he can. Conerly is only 21 years old.

Conerly improved week-by-week, and I project high upside as a pass protector. The Chiefs would finally solve left tackle with this pick.

Round 2 (63): Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami

I’ve profiled Arroyo already, but I love what he could bring to this offense. The Chiefs have never had a downfield threat who can play inline with this talent. Arroyo would add a different dimension to the offense. After Arroyo, I view most tight end prospects as multi-year projects. To me, Arroyo is more plug-and-play, but I think there is still upside to unlock.

Round 3 (66): Alfred Collins, DT, Texas

I like the value of Collins in this range. Collins is a massive nose tackle at 6’5 5/8, 332 lbs with over 34 1/2-inch arms. He’s great at taking on double teams, and for a guy with his height, he plays with great pad level. Collins can sink his hips and lower his shoulders without being moved.

Collins will offer little as a pass rusher. He’s not explosive or agile. He’ll primarily be a nose tackle option, but the Chiefs need bodies there. This won’t be a sexy pick, but Collins will be useful for a long time.

Round 4 (133): Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech

Let’s have fun with this last pick. Tuten is a super fun player to watch on tape. Tuten is an undersized running back (5’9, 206 lbs), but his speed, vision and ability to make cuts in space are elite. Tuten can cut on a dime and reaccelerate almost as well as anyone in this class. Watching him make cuts at a high rate of speed makes your jaw drop. Tuten is a threat to take any play to the end zone, which is something the Chiefs desperately need in their backfield.

My greatest concern with Tuten is that he’s limited to shotgun outside zone runs, and I’m not sure what load he can carry in the NFL. Ideally, he’s your No. 2 back. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco aren’t ideal No. 1 backs, but I think the Chiefs could mix Hunt in for short runs and use Tuten in a smaller role. At this point, the value is worth it for Tuten’s speed in this offense.