Celtics’ double massive experiment: is it working?

In case you’ve been watching the Boston Celtics lots this season – or studying CelticsBlog – you will need to have seen that Joe Mazzulla and his teaching employees have elevated their utilization of the double massive lineup idea. In keeping with Cleansing The Glass, the Celtics have performed 1,255 possessions with two massive males on the ground and a pair of,622 with just one. Primarily, the Celtics spend about one-third of their time with two bigs.

After they play with one massive, Al Horford has been the lone massive man for 828 possessions, Luke Kornet for 680, Kristaps Porzingis for 588, and Neemias Queta for 526. The rotation is sort of combined resulting from accidents, relaxation wanted for Horford, and ranging matchups. The double massive lineup additionally includes numerous combos, however more often than not (985 possessions), Horford is the second massive.

Why does it matter?

Now that we all know the Celtics are alternating between double and single massive lineups – and that almost all double massive lineups characteristic Horford because the second massive man – we have to study the numbers to grasp how every strategy has labored this season. To evaluate the influence of those tactical choices, we’ll analyze spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle. These are key facets of recent basketball, and the variety of massive males on the ground immediately influences all three.

Extra measurement theoretically improves rim safety as a result of it permits for a giant man to remain close to the rim as a security. Rebounding additionally tends to enhance with measurement, serving to win the possession battle. Moreover, measurement can crowd the paint and generate extra turnovers.

Nonetheless, extra measurement can shrink spacing. It’s uncommon to have massive males who’re revered threats past the three-point line. Thus, the extra massive males on the ground, the trickier it turns into to keep up optimum spacing for driving lanes.

This was one cause Brad Stevens and his employees traded for Kristaps Porzingis final summer season. With Porzingis or Horford because the lone massive, the spacing is much better than with two bigs on the court docket. When Horford performs with Porzingis, defenses have a tendency to depart Horford open from three, making his capturing extra impactful when he’s the lone massive man.

A single-big lineup additionally gives defensive flexibility. With Porzingis because the lone massive, the Celtics can swap screens whereas maintaining him near the rim or play drop protection in pick-and-roll conditions. When Horford performs alongside wings and guards, he can swap on each display screen or drop as nicely. With this context in thoughts, we’ll consider spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle for the totally different approaches.

Is the spacing actually higher with one massive?

The screenshots above illustrate why double massive lineups appear to create spacing points. Nonetheless, we’d like numbers to substantiate this, as a result of conclusions based mostly on visuals alone will be deceptive. To judge the Celtics’ spacing, we’ll study rim frequency, effectivity, and the power to attract fouls – basically, how usually and successfully the Celtics assault the rim.

The information shortly highlights that the Celtics’ spacing is finest when Porzingis is the lone massive. With him, the Celtics obtain their highest rim frequency, effectivity, and free-throw era. Conversely, when Horford is the lone massive, the Celtics lack rim strain, with solely 20% of photographs inside 4 toes of the basket and simply 17 free throws made per 100 area aim makes an attempt.

Double massive lineups additionally present worse spacing in comparison with lineups with Porzingis alone. Nonetheless, the numbers with Horford because the lone massive and people with double bigs are fairly comparable. This may be attributed to 2 fundamental elements. First, Horford is much less revered as a shooter than Porzingis. Second, Porzingis’ positioning usually maximizes spacing in comparison with Horford being within the nook more often than not.

Porzingis creates extra spacing as a result of he positions himself one go away from a drive, whereas Horford is usually stationed within the nook. A shooter within the nook offers much less spacing than one positioned two steps past the arc on the wing or within the slot.

Horford’s ground spacing doesn’t range a lot whether or not he’s a lone massive or a part of a double massive lineup. Thus, it is smart that spacing isn’t as robust with him in comparison with Porzingis. Offensively, we are able to conclude that double massive lineups don’t optimize spacing in comparison with a lone Porzingis. Nonetheless, spacing is analogous whether or not Horford performs as a middle or energy ahead. Now that we’ve analyzed rim assaults, let’s study rim safety.

Is the double massive lineup higher at defending the rim?

Defensively, the Celtics look very totally different relying on who performs heart and what number of bigs are on the ground. The purpose is usually to maintain a giant man close to the rim or swap to stop defensive gaps. It’s no shock, then, that the numbers differ considerably relying on the strategy.

With Porzingis because the lone massive, the Celtics excel defensively, decreasing opponents’ rim effectivity and makes an attempt. On common, NBA groups take 32% of their photographs on the rim at 66% effectivity, however with Porzingis anchoring the protection, the Celtics’ numbers are elite. In distinction, Horford’s lone massive numbers clarify why he’s usually paired with one other heart this season.

As Horford ages, switch-heavy defenses turn into much less efficient. He struggles extra towards fast wings than earlier than. Whereas the Celtics use him in drop protection, he lacks the size and instincts of elite drop bigs like Porzingis. Pairing him with one other massive helps offset these limitations.

Defensively, Porzingis as a lone massive outperforms different approaches. Nonetheless, the double massive lineup has its benefits within the possession battle.

The double massive lineup generates extra possessions

Regardless of its drawbacks, equivalent to spacing and rim safety, the double massive lineup has upsides. It excels at producing additional possessions.

Double massive lineups are extremely efficient at offensive rebounding, rating within the 86th percentile amongst lineups with over 100 possessions. Moreover, they safe extra defensive rebounds and generate extra turnovers, usually resulting in quick breaks.

Surprisingly, the Celtics are higher in transition after they play greater. By successful the possession battle, they create extra transition alternatives regardless of the perceived limitations of measurement.

What to conclude?

Issues about Porzingis’ lone massive minutes and his adverse internet score are overblown. The Celtics have merely skilled dangerous capturing luck when he’s on the ground. With opponents capturing 42% from three in these lineups in comparison with the Celtics’ 31%, regression to the imply will possible restore stability.

The double massive lineup additionally has its strengths. It helps protect Horford’s legs, wins possession battles, and offers depth. With Kornet and Queta exceeding expectations, a wholesome Horford and Porzingis, and Tillman prepared if wanted, the Celtics have one of many deepest and most versatile massive man rotations within the league.

When the playoffs arrive, this versatility will probably be invaluable in adapting to totally different matchups.