Final week I outlined the Bucs’ cap state of affairs for 2025. With a proficient roster with a few particular holes it is smart that the group is likely to be out there for some exterior assist subsequent yr. And whereas Tampa Bay isn’t out of the playoff race this yr, removed from it in truth, I believed popping out of the bye week it will be a enjoyable train to take a look at some potential free agent targets the group would possibly pursue at edge rusher subsequent yr.
The fee projections on potential contracts are derived from present projections that myself and Kyle DeDiminicantanio have for these gamers by Week 10 of this season.
Bucs’ Outdoors Linebacker Choices In 2025
Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photograph by: USA Right now
In contrast to inside linebacker, the Bucs do have some expertise to work from at edge rusher. Outdoors linebacker Yaya Diaby has made a powerful yr two soar and presently ranks twenty eighth in quarterback pressures per Subsequent Gen Stats. Rookie Chris Braswell has had some flashes to start out his profession and the group is hoping he can have a second-half ascension much like Diaby final yr.
However the group can also be set to lose two of it’s high 4 edge rushers subsequent yr as each Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Anthony Nelson are pending free brokers. The chance that both participant is again in 2025 is lower than 50%.
One of many obtrusive weaknesses of the Bucs protection this yr, and up to date years general, has been the dearth of a real one-vs.-one winner at go rusher. Defensive deal with/finish Calijah Kancey has proven that he could also be that man on the within, however none of the present exterior linebackers have stepped as much as be a real, win exterior or inside participant on the sting.
If the Bucs select to pursue free agent choices to enhance their skill to get strain through a 4 down and go method listed below are some potential choices they may look to.
High Of The Market
Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Photograph by: USA Right now
Kyle DeDiminicantanio and I presently have three edge rushers projected to high $15 million per yr on a free agent deal subsequent yr. They’re Khalil Mack, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat.
Mack leads the way in which, and on the age of 33 he nonetheless reveals nearly no indicators of slowing down. He restructured his contract this yr to stick with the Chargers at a diminished money circulation of simply $19,000,000. His manufacturing on the sphere has far out-produced that fee.
With 29 pressures on 226 go rush alternatives per Professional Soccer Focus, Mack has a strain fee of 12.8%. His go rush win fee, additionally as measured by PFF, is 14.2% and ranked twenty first amongst certified edge rushers. He’s additionally a confirmed finisher constantly changing 15% or extra of his pressures into sacks since 2019. If not for his age, Mack would probably be looking for a deal close to $30 million per yr in 2025.
As is, contemplating he can be 34 subsequent yr his price ticket and size of deal can be significantly extra inexpensive for potential suitors. Nonetheless he’ll possible be the priciest free agent edge rusher.
His deal ought to comp off of Danielle Hunter’s contract with the Texans final yr. Hunter obtained $49 million over two years with nearly your entire quantity assured. I see Mack with a barely decrease APY of $22.5 million per yr with round $25-30 million assured. That might place his 2025 cap hit someplace round $12.5 million for a group not attempting to backload your entire deal.
The enigmatic Reddick has a 15% strain fee since ending his maintain out and returning to the Jets in Week 8. His hopes of getting a brand new deal earlier than he turned 30 after Philadelphia traded him by no means transpired and he’ll now deal with not solely age, however the holdout itself affecting his worth on his subsequent deal. However he can nonetheless get to the quarterback which implies there can be a marketplace for him.
Admittedly, the maintain out might have an effect on his worth greater than we will actually quantify however we challenge him for a three-year, $60 million deal subsequent yr with about $35 million assured. A hypothetical deal like this may value the Bucs round $9 million in 2025 wage cap.
Saints DE Chase Younger and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photograph by: USA Right now
Chase Younger is a constant go rush winner with a barely deflated conversion fee. He gave Tristan Wirfs some hassle earlier this yr along with his inside stab transfer and is a fairly efficient go rusher general. Now 1.5 years faraway from damage considerations and has a very good draft pedigree which ought to issue into his subsequent deal.
His robust 2024 marketing campaign ought to internet him a elevate on his $13 million wage this yr. A 3-year, $52.5 million contract would include a $11 million cap hit in 2025.
Josh Sweat has been a constant, however not dominant, go rusher over the previous a number of years. He can be simply 28 subsequent yr and is nicely on his strategy to his fourth consecutive season of 45 pressures or extra and is presently getting strain on 13.8% of his go rush makes an attempt.
In contrast to Mack and Reddick, due to his extra workman-like profile he’ll possible value the Bucs lower than $20 million per yr. We have now him projected for $17 million per yr over 4 years with $37.5 million assured. This could are available in round a $9 million wage cap hit in 2025.
Center Of The Market
Patriots EDGE Josh Uche – Photograph by: USA Right now
Two edge rushers stick out because the second-tier choices if the Bucs need extra of a price choice. And one in all them has me excited. They’re Azeez Ojulari, Chase Younger, Malcolm Koonce and Josh Uche.
Ojulari is within the midst of a breakout season that ought to inflate his market to round $13-15 million per yr. Good groups will look previous his sack complete to see that he’s changing a comparatively modest variety of pressures into sacks at an unsustainably excessive fee.
As it’s, I see a three-year deal value $45 million and $30 million assured as a extra possible state of affairs at this juncture. The construction of a deal like this may in all probability create a $10 million wage cap hit in 2025.
The second choice is essentially the most intriguing in my view. Josh Uche was simply traded from New England to Kansas Metropolis after taking a beneath market one yr cope with the Patriots this yr. Simply two years faraway from a ten+ sack season, Uche nonetheless reveals rather a lot on tape regardless of getting used sparingly over his profession.
If the Bucs wished a real worth choice to simply give them a legit go rush specialist weapon, Uche presents one of the best bang for the buck in my view. A two-year, $15 million contract with minimal ensures might present an enormous return on funding for a participant with a profession strain fee of 15.5%.
