Following a weekend that noticed almost each group across the reduce line lose, we’re lower than three weeks away from Choice Sunday. As we head down the stretch, just a few smaller conferences nonetheless harbor hopes of a number of bids.
• Ivy – There’s a three-way tie atop the league between Cornell, Princeton, and Yale, however the Tigers have a minimum of the potential for an at-large. Princeton would end the common season at 22-3 (reminder: solely D-I video games depend for the committee) in the event that they win their final three video games. The problem is that they haven’t any Q1 wins and received’t be capable of choose one up down the stretch and even within the Ivy League match, so despite the fact that all three losses sit in Q2, an at-large is feasible in the event that they lose within the Ivy title recreation, but it surely feels unlikely.
• Missouri Valley – Indiana State sits atop the league, with Drake shut behind. The Sycamores have a Q1 win at Bradley and are 5-4 within the high two quadrants, however a This fall dwelling loss to Illinois State broken their at-large hopes. ISU ought to be capable of win its last two common season video games and would in all probability must get to the finals of Arch Insanity earlier than dropping once more. Drake can be 5-4 in Q1/Q2 and the Bulldogs’ impartial courtroom win over Nevada has definitely aged effectively. However additionally they have three Q2 losses and two extra in Q3 and Drake lags behind Indiana State in most group sheet metrics. The league’s greatest likelihood at two bids is nearly definitely a state of affairs the place each groups make the finals.
• Solar Belt – Appalachian State and James Madison have a signature non-conference win, with the Mountaineers knocking off Auburn at dwelling and the Dukes profitable at Michigan State. App State swept JMU within the league, although, and is an ideal 3-0 within the high two quadrants, however three Q3 defeats and two extra in This fall have pushed the results-based metrics to a spot the place it’s probably auto-bid or bust for the Mountaineers. As for James Madison, they rank larger within the NET and most group sheet metrics. The Dukes have misplaced simply three video games, two to App State and the opposite a Q3 loss at Southern Miss. Nonetheless, 19 of their 25 wins fall in This fall, however regardless of being swept by the Mountaineers, they in all probability have a stronger at-large case.
Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins based mostly on the NET ranking:
· Quad 1: Residence vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75· Quad 1A: Residence vs. groups ranked 1-15 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-25 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-40· Quad 2: Residence vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135· Quad 3: Residence vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240· Quad 4: Residence vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections under are based mostly on all video games performed by means of February 26, 2024. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 5 groups out.
DETROIT (MIDWEST)
BOSTON (EAST)
Indianapolis – March 22/24
Brooklyn – March 22/24
1) Purdue
1) Connecticut
16) Grambling / Norfolk St.
16) Fairfield
8) TCU
8) Mississippi State
9) Florida Atlantic
9) Nevada
Spokane – March 22/24
Brooklyn – March 22/24
5) Kentucky
5) Clemson
12) South Florida
12) McNeese State
4) San Diego State
4) Auburn
13) Akron
13) Samford
Omaha – March 21/23
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
6) Washington State
6) Saint Mary’s
11) Princeton
11) Windfall / Wake Forest
3) Iowa State
3) Baylor
14) Charleston
14) Excessive Level
Charlotte – March 21/23
Charlotte – March 21/23
7) Colorado State
7) BYU
10) Texas
10) Michigan State
2) Tennessee
2) North Carolina
15) Morehead State
15) Colgate
LOS ANGELES (WEST)
DALLAS (SOUTH)
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
Memphis – March 22/24
1) Arizona
1) Houston
16) E. Kentucky / Merrimack
16) South Dakota State
8) Oklahoma
8) Boise State
9) Northwestern
9) Nebraska
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
Spokane – March 22/24
5) Illinois
5) Dayton
12) Richmond
12) Grand Canyon
4) Creighton
4) Wisconsin
13) Appalachian State
13) UC Irvine
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
Memphis – March 22/24
6) Florida
6) Texas Tech
11) Indiana State
11) Gonzaga / Virginia
3) Duke
3) Alabama
14) Vermont
14) Louisiana Tech
Omaha – March 21/23
Indianapolis – March 22/24
7) Utah State
7) South Carolina
10) Seton Corridor
10) New Mexico
2) Kansas
2) Marquette
15) Japanese Washington
15) Oakland
Final 4 In:
• Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons lastly picked up the marquee win they lacked by knocking off Duke at dwelling on Saturday. Their earlier win over Florida has crept into Q1 as effectively, and Q2 wins over Pitt and Virginia assist bolster Wake’s case. The metrics are robust, significantly on the predictive facet, however they’re simply 2-7 in true street video games and 3-9 in street/impartial contests. This week gives a pair of street dates and an opportunity to enhance these marks because the Deacs journey to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
• Virginia: It was a tough week for the Cavaliers, who went 0-2 and didn’t high 44 factors in both recreation, dropping them down to just about fiftieth within the NET. UVA now sits at 6-7 within the high two quadrants with three Q1 wins and only one different loss, however the Hoos have misplaced all eight video games by double digits and broken their predictive metrics within the course of. Highway video games at Boston School and Duke are on faucet this week.
• Windfall: The Friars have received three straight following a victory at Xavier final week. They now boast 5 Q1 wins, though some got here earlier than the Bryce Hopkins damage. Even so, the current profitable streak has helped Windfall’s metrics, whereas a comparatively poor non-con SOS has left them at simply 8-9 in non-This fall contests. An enormous week awaits because the Friars journey to Marquette and host Villanova.
• Gonzaga: With all of the carnage on the bubble, the Bulldogs have slipped into the sphere. Even with the current win at Kentucky, they’re nonetheless simply 1-5 in Q1 contests and 3-6 within the high two quadrants. Eleven of Gonzaga’s 19 victories fall in This fall and the results-based metrics aren’t overly spectacular. Nonetheless, the predictive metrics each rank round twentieth as they enter the stretch run. The Zags shut the common season with street video games at San Francisco and Saint Mary’s.
First 5 Out:
• Villanova: The Wildcats picked up one other stable win by beating Butler at dwelling final week earlier than getting blasted at UConn to drop them again to a few video games over .500 at 15-12. The standard metrics are very robust, however the results-based metrics are lagging, partly on account of three Q3 losses. Tuesday’s recreation in opposition to Georgetown received’t transfer the needle, however upcoming street dates at Windfall and Seton Corridor can be huge alternatives for Nova.
• Texas A&M: A four-game dropping streak has additionally dropped the Aggies to 15-12. The resume here’s a robust one to determine. On the one hand, A&M has racked up six Q1 victories and sits at 8-8 within the high two quadrants. Then again, they’ve 4 Q3 losses, leaving them at simply 10-12 in non-This fall contests. The outcomes-based metrics are each within the mid-60s, whereas the predictives common out within the upper-40s. The Aggies will look to get again on observe as they host South Carolina earlier than touring to Georgia this week.
• Butler: 4 straight losses have knocked the Bulldogs all the way down to 15-12 and out of this week’s projected subject. Butler is now 3-11 in Q1 with only one different loss and 4 Q2 victories. A pair of street wins at Creighton and Marquette are among the many greatest within the nation, however the metrics nonetheless aren’t overly compelling, thanks partially to a 9-12 mark in non-This fall contests. The Bulldogs have three winnable video games remaining, beginning this week with a house recreation in opposition to St. John’s and a street journey to DePaul.
• Utah: Following a blowout loss at Colorado, the Utes have received simply two of their final eight video games. Non-league wins over BYU (dwelling), Saint Mary’s (street), and Wake Forest (impartial) all fall in Q1A, however they’re simply 8-10 within the high two quadrants with a number of losses to groups not within the at-large image. Utah is simply 2-7 in true street video games and sits exterior the highest 50 in three of the 4 group sheet metrics. They should maintain serve in video games in opposition to Stanford and Cal.
• Colorado: The Buffs used that aforementioned blowout of Utah to get again into the image. Their lone Q1 win got here at Washington, however they’ve seven victories in Q2 to go together with first rate metrics in comparison with most bubble groups. Colorado can be simply 2-7 in true street video games and has only one win over an at-large group on this week’s subject, however this week’s dwelling video games in opposition to Cal and Stanford received’t be capable of tackle both of these issues.
Convention Breakdown:
Huge 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (7): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Huge Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Huge East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Windfall, Seton Corridor
American (2): Florida Atlantic, South Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Richmond
Pac-12 (2): Arizona, Washington State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Solar: Japanese Kentucky
Huge Sky: Japanese Washington
Huge South: Excessive Level
Huge West: UC Irvine
Coastal: Charleston
Convention USA: Louisiana Tech
Horizon: Oakland
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Fairfield
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Indiana State
Northeast: Merrimack
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Samford
Southland: McNeese State
SWAC: Grambling
Summit: South Dakota State
Solar Belt: Appalachian State
WAC: Grand Canyon
Observe Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on faculty hoops and to obtain an replace every time new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology
