With lower than two weeks till Choice Sunday, there’s nonetheless loads of intrigue on the one line. Purdue, UConn and Houston have all however sewn up prime seeds, however the Cougars and Huskies are jockeying for the second total spot whereas the fourth one seed stays up for grabs.
UConn was second on the choice committee’s reveal a few weeks in the past and the Huskies are 3-1 since with a loss at Creighton. Houston, in the meantime, is an ideal 5-0 since then and has picked up 4 extra Q1 victories within the course of. Each groups are 26-3 with equivalent 10-3 data in Q1 and 15-3 marks within the prime two quadrants. The Cougars are ranked larger in each the results-based and predictive metrics, whereas UConn has a greater non-conference energy of schedule. So, whereas they may each find yourself on the one line of their most well-liked area, they’re at the moment neck and neck for the second total seed.
Then you have got the race for the ultimate prime seed, with Tennessee, Arizona and North Carolina all within the combine. Like Houston, the Vols and Heels are each unbeaten for the reason that reveal, with Arizona’s lone loss coming by the hands of Washington State. Tennessee has the sting in results-based metrics, whereas Arizona is finest on the predictive aspect and UNC leads the group with 10 street/impartial victories. Arizona boasts essentially the most Q1 victories of the group with eight, whereas Tennessee and UNC each have six. However it’s price noting that the Vols have a powerful six wins in Q1A, in comparison with 4 for Arizona and three for North Carolina. Arizona additionally has essentially the most wins in opposition to the highest two quadrants, however they’re the one workforce within the group to have a Q3 loss. The online results of all that for this week is that I’ve Tennessee as the ultimate one seed, however that would actually change between now and Choice Sunday given how intently matched these groups are proper now.
Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins primarily based on the NET score:
· Quad 1: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Street vs. groups ranked 1-75· Quad 1A: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 1-15 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-25 / Street vs. groups ranked 1-40· Quad 2: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Street vs. groups ranked 76-135· Quad 3: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Street vs. groups ranked 136-240· Quad 4: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Street vs. groups ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections under are primarily based on all video games performed by March 4, 2024. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 5 groups out.
DETROIT (MIDWEST)
DALLAS (SOUTH)
Indianapolis – March 22/24
Memphis – March 22/24
1) Purdue
1) Houston
16) Grambling / Norfolk St.
16) Little Rock
8) Texas Tech
8) Nevada
9) Mississippi State
9) Oklahoma
Spokane – March 22/24
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
5) Washington State
5) Auburn
12) Grand Canyon
12) South Florida
4) Kentucky
4) Illinois
13) UC Irvine
13) Louisiana Tech
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
Brooklyn – March 22/24
6) Wisconsin
6) Dayton
11) Princeton
11) New Mexico / Seton Corridor
3) Creighton
3) Duke
14) Akron
14) Vermont
Memphis – March 22/24
Indianapolis – March 22/24
7) Gonzaga
7) Florida
10) Nebraska
10) Florida Atlantic
2) Baylor
2) Marquette
15) South Dakota State
15) Oakland
LOS ANGELES (WEST)
BOSTON (EAST)
Charlotte – March 21/23
Brooklyn – March 22/24
1) Tennessee
1) Connecticut
16) C. Conn. St. / E. Kentucky
16) Quinnipiac
8) Texas
8) Northwestern
9) Colorado State
9) TCU
Spokane – March 22/24
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
5) South Carolina
5) BYU
12) McNeese State
12) Richmond
4) San Diego State
4) Alabama
13) Samford
13) Appalachian State
Omaha – March 21/23
Omaha – March 21/23
6) Utah State
6) Clemson
11) St. John’s / Virginia
11) Indiana State
3) Kansas
3) Iowa State
14) Excessive Level
14) Charleston
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
Charlotte – March 21/23
7) Saint Mary’s
7) Boise State
10) Villanova
10) Michigan State
2) Arizona
2) North Carolina
15) Jap Washington
15) Colgate
Final 4 In:
• Virginia: The Cavaliers briefly stopped their skid with a win at Boston School, however they adopted that up with one other blowout street loss at Duke, leaving them the place they have been final week. UVA now sits at 8-9 within the prime two quadrants with two Q1 wins and no different losses, however the Hoos have misplaced all 9 video games by double digits and broken their predictive metrics within the course of. Their lone recreation this week comes at residence in opposition to Georgia Tech.
• Seton Corridor: There’s no disgrace in dropping on the street at Creighton and UConn, however the Pirates misplaced these video games by a mixed 51 factors. That damage their predictive metrics and dropped them into the higher 60s within the NET. Nonetheless, Seton Corridor’s 5 Q1 victories evaluate favorably to different bubble groups and the sweep of St. John’s is useful for bubble functions. The Pirates are simply 10-11 in non-This fall contests heading into the week’s ultimate season, the place they may host Villanova and DePaul.
• St. John’s: Issues have been trying bleak for Rick Pitino’s squad, however latest wins over Creighton at residence and on the street in opposition to Butler have the Crimson Storm again within the combine. They now have 5 Q1 wins and 9 victories within the prime two quadrants, together with a sweep of Villanova and a neutral-court win over fellow bubbler Utah. Video games in opposition to DePaul and Georgetown this week are alternatives to pad the win whole however gained’t transfer the needle on their at-large case.
• New Mexico: The Lobos are clinging to a spot within the subject after dropping at Boise State over the weekend. They’ve 5 wins within the prime two quadrants, with all of them coming in Mountain West play and only one on the street, however they’ve additionally been swept by UNLV and are saddled with a This fall residence loss to Air Pressure. New Mexico’s non-conference energy of schedule is a possible subject, and regardless that they’re 9-5 in street/impartial video games, eight of these victories fall in Q3 or This fall. The Lobos must maintain enterprise at residence in opposition to Fresno State earlier than closing the common season with a large street alternative in opposition to Utah State.
First 5 Out:
• Utah: The Utes picked up a pair of blowout wins at residence final week, however neither victory did a lot for his or her at-large case. Non-league wins over BYU (residence), Saint Mary’s (street), and Wake Forest (impartial) all fall in Q1, however they’re simply 8-10 within the prime two quadrants with a number of losses to groups not within the at-large image. Utah is simply 2-7 in true street video games and ranks within the higher 40s in many of the workforce sheet metrics. A visit to the Oregon colleges provides Utah an opportunity to bolster its street file this week.
• Windfall: The Friars suffered a pair of double-digit losses final week, first on the street at Marquette after which at residence in opposition to Villanova. They nonetheless boast 5 Q1 wins, though many got here earlier than the Bryce Hopkins harm. Many of the workforce sheet metrics are exterior of the highest 50, whereas a comparatively poor non-con SOS has left them at simply 8-11 in non-This fall contests. Windfall must maintain enterprise at Georgetown earlier than internet hosting UConn within the season finale.
• Iowa: After successful 4 of their final 5, the Hawkeyes are firmly within the bubble combine as we head down the stretch. They’re 3-8 in Q1 with wins over Michigan State and Northwestern on the street and Wisconsin at residence. Iowa boasts 5 different victories in Q2, however a Q3 loss to Michigan continues to look worse and worse. An enormous Q1 alternative awaits as Iowa hosts Illinois to shut out the season on Sunday.
• Colorado: The Buffs have now gained 4 straight after caring for Cal and Stanford at residence. Their lone Q1 win got here at Washington, however they’ve seven victories in Q2 to go along with respectable metrics in comparison with most bubble groups. Colorado can also be simply 2-7 in true street video games and has only one win over an at-large workforce on this week’s subject. The Buffaloes head to the Oregon colleges this week with an opportunity to influence the primary of these issues.
• Wake Forest: After beating Duke, the Demon Deacons’ street woes continued as they misplaced to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech final week. They’re now simply 2-9 in true street video games and 3-11 in street/impartial contests, which can be an excessive amount of to beat. All three of Wake’s wins in opposition to the sphere have come at residence in opposition to Duke, Florida, and Virginia, however their predictive metrics stay robust. The Deacs shut out the season with residence dates in opposition to Georgia Tech and Clemson with an opportunity to put up an ideal 17-0 mark in residence video games.
Convention Breakdown:
Large 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (7): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Large East (6): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Seton Corridor, Villanova
Large Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
American (2): Florida Atlantic, South Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Richmond
Pac-12 (2): Arizona, Washington State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Solar: Jap Kentucky
Large Sky: Jap Washington
Large South: Excessive Level
Large West: UC Irvine
Coastal: Charleston
Convention USA: Louisiana Tech
Horizon: Oakland
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Indiana State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Little Rock
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Samford
Southland: McNeese State
SWAC: Grambling
Summit: South Dakota State
Solar Belt: Appalachian State
WAC: Grand Canyon
Observe Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on school hoops and to obtain an replace every time new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology
