Champ Week is right here and 6 automated bids have already been handed out. The one influence on the at-large pool got here within the Missouri Valley, the place Drake knocked off Indiana State to cap off Arch Insanity. In actuality, the Bulldogs in all probability had a greater at-large resume than the Sycamores, however whereas ISU has a protracted week of ready forward, there’s nonetheless an opportunity that they go dancing. Extra on the Sycamores later.
Listed below are a couple of random ideas at first of a busy week:
• With issues comparatively sluggish early within the week, it gives bracketologists a wonderful alternative to evaluate sure sections of the seed listing the place issues are much less clear. The six and 7 strains, particularly, are difficult to kind out at this stage.
As for the bubble, much more groups harm themselves than helped themselves over the weekend, leaving a couple of spots up for grabs heading into the most important convention tournaments.
• And on the prime of the bracket, North Carolina’s win at Duke and Arizona’s loss at USC added some readability to the race for the ultimate one seed, which is just about all the way down to Tennessee and UNC.
The plan is to publish each day updates for the projections in the course of the week as we head towards Choice Sunday.
Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins based mostly on the NET score:
· Quad 1: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75· Quad 1A: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 1-15 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-25 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-40· Quad 2: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135· Quad 3: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240· Quad 4: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections beneath are based mostly on all video games performed by means of March 11, 2024. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 4 groups out.
DETROIT (MIDWEST)
DALLAS (SOUTH)
Indianapolis – March 22/24
Memphis – March 22/24
1) Purdue
1) Houston
16) Grambling / Norfolk St.
16) Longwood
8) Boise State
8) Florida
9) Florida Atlantic
9) Nebraska
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
Spokane – March 22/24
5) Clemson
5) Utah State
12) James Madison
12) Richmond
4) Kentucky
4) Alabama
13) McNeese State
13) Vermont
Pittsburgh – March 21/23
Brooklyn – March 22/24
6) Wisconsin
6) Dayton
11) Drake
11) Indiana St. / Texas A&M
3) Creighton
3) Duke
14) Charleston
14) Morehead State
Memphis – March 22/24
Indianapolis – March 22/24
7) Gonzaga
7) Washington State
10) Mississippi State
10) TCU
2) Baylor
2) Marquette
15) Sam Houston
15) South Dakota State
LOS ANGELES (WEST)
BOSTON (EAST)
Charlotte – March 21/23
Brooklyn – March 22/24
1) Tennessee
1) Connecticut
16) Merrimack / Stetson
16) Quinnipiac
8) Texas
8) Northwestern
9) Colorado State
9) Oklahoma
Spokane – March 22/24
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
5) South Carolina
5) BYU
12) South Florida
12) Grand Canyon
4) Illinois
4) Auburn
13) UC Irvine
13) Samford
Omaha – March 21/23
Omaha – March 21/23
6) San Diego State
6) Nevada
11) Princeton
11) St. John’s / Virginia
3) Kansas
3) Iowa State
14) Oakland
14) Toledo
Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23
Charlotte – March 21/23
7) Texas Tech
7) Saint Mary’s
10) Seton Corridor
10) Michigan State
2) Arizona
2) North Carolina
15) Montana
15) Colgate
Final 4 In:
• Virginia: The Cavaliers closed the season with a 15-point win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. UVA sits at 8-9 within the prime two quadrants with two Q1 wins (at Clemson and Florida on a impartial court docket) and no different losses. Nonetheless, all 9 losses have come by double digits, damaging their predictive metrics within the course of. A possible quarterfinal matchup with Clemson within the ACC Match would offer the chance for a much-needed high quality win.
• St. John’s: After avoiding catastrophe in video games towards DePaul and Georgetown, the Purple Storm stay firmly within the bubble combine. They now have three Q1 wins and 9 victories within the prime two quadrants, together with a sweep of Villanova and a neutral-court win over fellow bubbler Utah. Nonetheless, simply one in all their victories got here towards an at-large group in at present’s discipline (Creighton). Thursday’s date with Seton Corridor is shaping as much as be an necessary one for each squads.
• Indiana State: As talked about above, will probably be a protracted week of ready for the Sycamores. All 4 group sheet metrics are hovering round fortieth and ISU is twenty ninth within the NET. That stated, their lone Q1 victory got here at Bradley, and their different two High 100 victories had been at residence towards Drake and Bradley. ISU has simply two losses exterior of the highest quadrant, however one is a brutal This fall loss to Illinois State. It appears like we’ve seen the committee give some prime mid-majors the advantage of the doubt in recent times, and I plan to dig in additional this week to seek out out whether or not these comparisons mirror favorably on Indiana State.
• Texas A&M: The Aggies have assembled an odd profile. On the one hand, they’ve 5 Q1 victories and are 11-9 towards the highest two quadrants, with wins over Tennessee and Kentucky at residence and Iowa State on a impartial ground. A prime 25 non-conference power of schedule could assist A&M as effectively, however they’ve additionally managed to go simply 2-4 in Q3, contributing to their 13 whole losses. The Aggies received at Ole Miss to shut out the common season and can tackle the Rebels once more of their first SEC Match contest.
First 4 Out:
• Colorado: The Buffs swept the street journey to the Oregon faculties, which helped to bolster their street report. Their two Q1 wins got here at Washington and Oregon, whereas they’ve only one victory over an at-large group on this week’s discipline (Washington State). Colorado’s group sheet metrics have a tendency to check favorably to different bubble groups, and despite the fact that the Buffs don’t have any losses exterior of the highest two quadrants, they do have 4 losses to groups ranked ninety fifth or worse within the NET that sit on the low finish of Q2. CU will face both Utah or Arizona State on Thursday.
• New Mexico: After dropping a detailed recreation at Utah State, the Lobos are on the skin wanting in. They’ve six wins within the prime two quadrants, with a house win over UC Irvine, which is the one one to not are available MWC play. New Mexico has additionally been swept by UNLV and is saddled with a This fall residence loss to Air Drive. A poor non-conference power of schedule can also be a possible problem and despite the fact that they’re 9-6 in street/impartial video games, eight of these victories fall in Q3 or This fall. The Lobos have an opportunity for revenge towards Air Drive, organising a date with Boise State within the quarterfinals.
• Villanova: The Wildcats closed the season with a pair of losses, dropping their general report to 17-14. They’ve 9 wins within the prime two quadrants, together with marquee wins over North Carolina and Texas Tech on impartial flooring and on the street at Creighton. However three Q3 losses have left Villanova at 12-14 in non-This fall contests. Wednesday’s recreation towards DePaul gives an opportunity to pad the win whole, however extra importantly, it could arrange a date with Marquette in a recreation that would transfer the needle.
• Iowa: There’s a little bit of a drop-off between the primary three groups out and the Hawkeyes. They may not knock off Illinois within the season finale, leaving them at 3-8 in Q1, with seven of these losses falling in Q1A. Iowa does have 5 Q2 victories and has overwhelmed Michigan State and Northwestern on the street. A Q3 loss to Michigan definitely doesn’t assist, so Iowa might want to beat Ohio State on Thursday so the Hawkeyes can get one other crack at Illinois.
The opposite groups thought-about for the primary 4 out had been Pittsburgh and Windfall.
Convention Breakdown:
Massive 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Massive Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Massive East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Seton Corridor
Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
American (2): Florida Atlantic, South Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Richmond
Missouri Valley: Drake*, Indiana State
Pac-12 (2): Arizona, Washington State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Solar: Stetson*
Massive Sky: Montana
Massive South: Longwood*
Massive West: UC Irvine
Coastal: Charleston
Convention USA: Sam Houston
Horizon: Oakland
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Toledo
MEAC: Norfolk State
Northeast: Merrimack
Ohio Valley: Morehead State*
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Samford*
Southland: McNeese State
SWAC: Grambling
Summit: South Dakota State
Solar Belt: James Madison*
WAC: Grand Canyon
* – Automated Bid
Observe Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on faculty hoops and to obtain an replace each time new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology
