Analyzing how Sunday’s outcomes will resolve who the Celtics face in playoffs

The Celtics clinched the East’s prime seed on Mar. 25 and the NBA’s greatest report on Apr. 4. They’ve sat again since, taking part in out the schedule some nights, resting on others. Followers have watched with intrigue as the primary spherical eventualities narrowed barely every night time.

“The following time we get on the aircraft, we imply enterprise,” Jayson Tatum mentioned mic’d up earlier than Boston’s last street recreation at Milwaukee. “The place are we going? Are taking place to Miami? Are we going again to Brotherly Love? Are we gonna go to Indiana?”

“Atlanta?” Derrick White mentioned. “Chicago?”

Because it stands, the seventh-seed 76ers would host the Warmth within the 7-8 Play-In recreation on Tuesday, with the loser advancing to play the winner of the Hawks-Bulls single elimination matchup. With Atlanta-Chicago locked in and set for Wednesday, the Hawks and Bulls share a roughly 20% probability every of grabbing the eight seed, in line with Basketball Reference.

The Warmth and Sixers have flip-flopped as the favourite to satisfy Boston for weeks, selecting 24.3% in favor of Miami on Friday when Philadelphia moved right into a three-way tie for fifth. Miami additionally has the possibility, although far much less possible, to keep away from the Play-In spherical with a win and a few assistance on Sunday. The Magic and Pacers — fifth and sixth within the standings attributable to Orlando’s lead atop its division and Indiana’s head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia — may fall into seventh or eighth, and in place to play Boston within the opening spherical.

That creates the next mind-numbing quantity of eventualities:

Let’s go game-by-game by the Sunday schedule and assess what’ll happen throughout and after Boston finishes its season at dwelling towards Washington at 1 p.m.

Hawks-Pacers, 1 p.m.

Atlanta is lacking Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, and whereas Clint Capela may relaxation, Trae Younger will play his second recreation since coming back from hand surgical procedure. The Hawks are locked into the tenth seed with nothing to play for.

The Pacers, sixth within the East, lead Miami by 1.0 recreation in a three-way tie for fifth with Orlando and Philadelphia. They personal the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia and Miami, in order that they solely want a win or 76ers loss to keep away from the Play-In. In the event that they win and the Magic lose, they’ll transfer as much as fifth into the Celtics’ second spherical bracket. In the event that they lose and the 76ers win, they’ll fall into the seventh seed. A 3-way tie with the Warmth (win) and Magic (loss) would drop Indiana to eighth, Orlando to seventh and Miami would keep away from the Play-In.

If the Magic, Pacers, 76ers and Warmth all win or lose, the standings stay the identical and the Pacers would end sixth, sustaining the Miami-Philadelphia Play-In recreation.

Raptors-Warmth, 1 p.m.

Terry Rozier is out whereas Duncan Robinson enters the Warmth finale questionable. Toronto will play with out Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl and Immanuel Quickley, amongst others, after the Warmth beat them, 125-103, on Friday.

The Warmth can theoretically transfer up as excessive as 5 with a win, however every win in entrance of them eliminates an extra seed above them since they’re a recreation beneath the Play-In line. They personal the tiebreaker over Orlando, nonetheless, and that awards them the division benefit in any multi-team tie that features the Magic. They break a head-to-head tie with Philadelphia, however can not move the Pacers with a head-to-head tie. Which means Miami can solely escape the Play-In with a Magic loss, mixed with one of many Pacers or 76ers successful, or a four-way tie created by Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia losses.

It’s extra possible the Warmth keep within the Play-In spherical, both towards the 76ers if each Indiana and Orlando deal with enterprise, or one of many Pacers or Magic slip-up.

Bucks-Magic, 1 p.m.

The most important recreation of the afternoon. The Bucks enter largely wholesome, minus Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s nonetheless out following his calf pressure towards Boston final week. They’ve cut up two video games with out him, a win over the Magic (117-99) and loss to the Thunder. Milwaukee may use a win to clinch the No. 2 seed, which the Knicks threatened by tying them on Friday and the Cavaliers (1.0 GB) additionally may clinch in a three-way tie situation. That latter final result would drop the Bucks to fourth, and whereas that may arrange a primary spherical collection towards the Magic, a Pacers loss and 76ers win would transfer Philadelphia into fifth.

The perfect situation for the Bucks is sustaining dwelling courtroom previous to a hypothetical East Finals towards Boston, and beating the Magic may set them as much as clinch the No. 7 seed or assist the harmful Warmth and/or Sixers transfer out of the play-in completely. That possible units up an Orlando loss.

The Magic are wholesome; solely Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable on Sunday, however they’ve misplaced three straight and 6-of-10 to break down down the East standings. In the event that they lose once more, their solely approach to keep away from the Play-In can be losses by the Pacers and Warmth, or losses by each them and Philadelphia that maintain the road. In any other case, the Warmth and Sixers each break head-to-head ties with Orlando, and if the Pacers and Warmth end tied with them, Miami finishes sixth, whereas the Pacers and Magic face in Orlando within the Play-In. The identical goes for a Warmth, 76ers and Magic tie, as a result of Miami’s head-to-head benefit over Orlando offers it the division. In that case, Orlando would journey to Philadelphia for the Play-In.

Basketball Reference now offers Orlando a 13.5% probability to face Boston spherical one, nearly equal odds because the 76ers who as soon as stood as the favourite to tackle the Celtics. The Magic completed 4-0 towards the Bulls this yr whereas they misplaced 3-of-4 to the Hawks.

Nets-76ers, 1 p.m.

Maybe probably the most predictable of those video games, the Sixers enter winners of seven straight whereas the Nets don’t have anything to play for and received’t have Dorian Finney-Smith, Dennis Schroder, Cam Johnson, Dennis Smith Jr. and Day’Ron Sharpe, amongst others. They did, nonetheless, construct a 17-point lead over the Knicks on Friday earlier than squandering it.

Joel Embiid additionally needed to depart the 76ers’ win over Orlando that night time briefly after tweaking his left knee, one thing he’s carried out a number of instances since coming back from surgical procedure. Such an prevalence may solid some doubt on this recreation, and if the Sixers lose, they’ll keep within the Play-In recreation and will even drop to eighth, forcing them to journey on Tuesday.

In the event that they win, the Sixers may transfer as excessive as fifth with some assist, particularly Pacers and Magic losses. The Magic and Pacers would fall into the Play-In with a Warmth win in that case, whereas the Magic would host Miami within the 7-8 recreation if the Warmth lose. A Magic win and Pacers loss would transfer Philly into sixth and the Pacers right down to seventh, whereas a Pacers win and Magic loss strikes Indiana to fifth, Philadelphia to sixth and the Magic to seventh or eighth.

Different video games value watching —

Hornets-Cavaliers, 1 p.m.: Cleveland is at the moment fourth, within the Celtics’ second spherical bracket, and whereas they’ll’t fall any additional, they’ll transfer as much as second or third, dropping the Bucks or Knicks into fourth and the Celtics’ second spherical sights.

Bulls-Knicks, 1 p.m.: New York clinches no less than third with a win, and will transfer as much as two. Both final result retains them out of play for the Celtics till the East Finals.