Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3: Odds, full struggle preview and prediction | UFC 306

Final Preventing Championship (UFC) Flyweight rivals Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will sq. off as soon as extra this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 from inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Flyweight title image is unusual in the meanwhile, held up by the third consecutive struggle between these two champions. Even the fights themselves have been a bit odd. 9 rounds deep into this rivalry, “Bullet” has gained extra rounds than her opponent, however she’s additionally absorbing the largest pictures and ending up within the worst positions. Maybe that’s simply the fact of age catching up with the lifelong martial artist, whereas Grasso is undoubtedly at her peak and firing on all cylinders.

Whatever the final result, this must be the ultimate quick match between these two. There are too many worthy contenders lining up, an issue the Flyweight division has by no means skilled beforehand! Manon Fiorot has locked up a title alternative, however Rose Namajunas, Maycee Barber, and Natalia Silva are increase wonderful arguments that the division is able to transfer on.

As such, that is for all of the marbles. Let’s take a better take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Grasso vs. Shevchenko Betting Odds

Alexa Grasso victory: -135
Alexa Grasso through TKO/KO/DQ: +700
Alexa Grasso through submission: +350
Alexa Grasso through resolution: +200
Valentina Shevchenko victory: +114
Valentina Shevchenko through TKO/KO/DQ: +900
Valentina Shevchenko through submission: +1100
Valentina Shevchenko through resolution: +180
Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Grasso Wins

Grasso is a boxer with strong pop in her arms. Through the years, her grappling and wrestling abilities have grown tremendously, leading to a well-rounded champion who can end on the ground or upright.

After almost 45 minutes of shared fight, we all know how Grasso wins this struggle. She’s confirmed herself wonderful at capitalizing on Shevchenko’s errors and riskier strategies, notably the spinning again kick and headlock throw. Even whereas shedding extra minutes of the struggle, Grasso has scored the heaviest blows and persistently put Shevchenko is extra hazard of being completed.

One of the simplest ways to maintain creating such moments is stress. Grasso can’t wade ahead recklessly into the counter puncher’s assaults, however she tends to land tougher in prolonged exchanges. If Grasso is methodical and constant in her advance whereas refusing to let Shevchenko hold the amount low, she’s prone to join extra usually and damage the previous champion.

How Shevchenko Wins

Shevchenko is probably going one of the best counter fighter in ladies’s MMA historical past. “Bullet” is meticulous in her vary management, in a position to severely restrict her opponent’s choices at distance and pressure them to play her recreation.

As talked about, Shevchenko has discovered loads of success in these fights, it simply comes all the way down to avoiding errors and making good selections. Initially: throw the headlock toss away! It’s a nasty method! I wrote a whole article about its drawbacks and dangers, and Shevchenko continues to price herself by counting on it. The spinning again kick, conversely, is a superb method with many functions — Shevchenko simply has to ensure to make use of it correctly.

In any other case, the jab has persistently been Shevchenko’s finest weapon. I’d actually wish to see her concentrate on sticking the jab greater than as soon as and ending with highly effective left leg blasts to the thigh, physique, and head. If Shevchenko is in vary to attain her jab — which, once more, has been snapping Grasso’s head again repeatedly in these fights — she ought to have the ability to construct off it with exhausting kicks.

Jab, left kick, and reset is an effective way to manage the dance and break down Grasso.

Grasso vs. Shevchenko Prediction

On the entire, I feel Shevchenko is the higher fighter. Grasso is an effective athlete in her prime, however there’s nothing about her recreation that I discover significantly extraordinary. Nevertheless, as we see time and time once more in MMA, nothing is extra precious than being a younger, sturdy fighter with good confidence.

I anticipate one other shut struggle right here, however sensible cash completely must be on Grasso. Statistics and traits don’t lie: older fighters not often do higher in rematches. Each six months that goes by is a bonus to Grasso and knock in opposition to Shevchenko. Grasso can theoretically nonetheless be bettering, whereas Shevchenko is method too deep into her fight sports activities profession to regulate in any vital method.

If Shevchenko wins, it’ll be an enormous testomony to her professionalism and work ethic within the later phases of her profession. Extra probably, nonetheless, is that Shevchenko nonetheless wins a pair rounds however nonetheless finally ends up damage badly sufficient for the Mexican champion to retain.

Prediction: Grasso through resolution (+200)

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC 306 struggle card proper right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) major card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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