The PGA Tour continues its trip around Florida at Bay Hill Golf Club for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Take a look at this weekend’s odds, picks, and best bets.
Betting at Bay Hill
The Favorites
The favorite coming into the Arnold Palmer is defending champion Scottie Sheffler. Scheffler has an impressive track record at Bay Hill, with victories in 2022 and 2024, and a T-4 finish in 2023. You can take Sheffler at +300 to win and keep his crown.
A past winner in 2018, Rory McIlroy boasts a stellar record at Bay Hill, never finishing outside the top 30 in 10 appearances. His current streak includes eight consecutive top-20 finishes at this event, underscoring his consistency. He enters Arnold Palmer Invitational with odds around +750.
Mcilory and Sheffler are the only two players in the field this week who are under +1000 odds. In fact, no other players in the field can even be found under +1500. Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg are the only two players you can currently take around those odds. This could leave a big hole in Vegas’s pocket if one of these four men isn’t hoisting a trophy Sunday evening.
Contenders and Longshots
Shane Lowry has been touted all week as someone who can pull this tournament off. Windy conditions on Thursday and Sunday will make it feel like a home course for the Irishman. The elite iron game in Lowry’s possession will be crucial. At +6500, the value is there for Shane Lowry to put some serious coin in the people’s pocket.
Russell Henley’s form cannot be ignored right now. In the last 5 events, Henley has finished top-10 in 4 of them. His accuracy off the tee and work around the green can be the difference on the weekend. +2800 to finish as top American is definitely something to pay attention to.
Another player who’s been heating up is Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay’s finished top-5 twice already this year with a top-15 finish at The Sentry. Cantal can take advantage of the tough conditions with his premier iron play. Having no wins on Tour since 2022 would be a tough chance to take him as an outright winner. A top-10 finish at +240 can be a relatively safe play.
Ugly Odds
It’s very tough to look at the board and find much value in Xander Shauffele to win the tournaments. Returning from a two-month injury hiatus, Schauffele’s odds stand at +1800. While he’s a world-class talent, the lack of recent competitive play raises questions about his readiness to contend immediately.
It’s very difficult to understand why Tommy Fleetwood’s is a top-10 favorite this weekend. To his credit, he has been playing well finishing T5 at the Genesis Invitational. But it’s hard to see a world where a player with zero all-time PGA Tour wins pulls it off at Bay Hill. A top-10 or even top-5 finish should be what bettors look towards.
As this is one of the biggest non-major tournaments of the year, we don’t know how some of these players will handle the pressure. With monsters like Sheffler and McIlroy leading the way, it’s extremely difficult to find who can poke their head through. But play it smart and some serious money can be made.
Main photo credit: © Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images
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