McLaren ahead of Red Bull?

A crucial disclaimer after every Formula 1 testing session – including this week’s one – is that lap times say little.

Teams do not know each other’s exact programmes and this is even more true for outsiders. In particular, single-lap times say very little, as no team is showing its full hand yet while both fuel levels and engine modes are a big variable.

However, the long-run pace calculated by our data partner PACETEQ says more, especially when combined with GPS data and top speeds that can reveal a bit more about engine modes and possible sandbagging.

It means that the data does show a pattern in the end, of course with all the usual reservations and the note that teams will develop their cars towards the 2025 season opener in Melbourne on 14-16 March.

But as things stand, which F1 team ranks where after pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit?

10. Sauber

Nico Hulkenberg, Kick Sauber C45

Photo by: Sauber F1 Team

It is a common belief across the F1 paddock that Sauber remains bottom of the pecking order, having finished last in the 2024 championship.

The C45 looks unstable and at the circuit’s double left, Turns 9 and 10, the Sauber drivers’ lines were different each lap with the car unable to do what Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto wanted it to do.

Sauber’s long runs were also unimpressive with an average gap of 1.3 seconds per lap. But, this comes as little surprise because much of its focus is already on 2026, when Sauber will morph into the Audi F1 Team to kickstart the next era of technical regulations.

9. Racing Bulls

Yuki Tsunoda, RB F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Although in a livery ranking Racing Bulls would be near the top, the 2025 F1 campaign is expected to be a difficult one for the Italian outfit.

Its driver Yuki Tsunoda confirmed this belief, as he explained that the team is in a weaker position now than it was one year ago in comparison to its rivals. So, the Japanese driver expects the team to struggle to score points in the opening rounds of 2025.

Racing Bulls’ long run pace was not too bad though, with an average gap of around one second per lap to McLaren. Tsuonda is still playing it cautiously and he will have a rookie team-mate this year in Isack Hadjar, who replaces now Red Bull driver Liam Lawson.

8. Haas

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The margins between the midfield teams remain extremely small, which makes it difficult to position said squads in an exact ranking. 

The same goes for Haas, who did not really show a clear picture in the first two days of testing. It did produce some long runs with new signing Esteban Ocon on the final day, but it was not with a full tank or full race simulation. 

Ocon was over a second slower than McLaren in Paceteq’s numbers, but showed relatively little tyre degradation. It is what characterised Haas in 2024 and the American outfit seems to be building on it. 

7. Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Aston Martin is firmly focusing on the regulation overhaul in 2026, as it has signed legendary F1 car designer Adrian Newey while Honda is set to arrive as a power unit supplier. 

But, a team that’s as ambitious as the Silverstone-based outfit will be reluctant to see 2025 turn into a torturous campaign yet pre-season testing was not impressive.

Of course, Lance Stroll’s physical condition did not help forcing Aston Martin to switch its approach on the final day, but at no point did the British team really show a glimpse of speed or potential.

The car seemed stable when watching trackside at Turns 9 and 10, but both the short and long runs were not particularly quick.

6. Williams

Carlos Sainz, Williams

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Williams was a positive surprise of the three-day test in Bahrain, even though the squad has made no secret of its focus mainly being on 2026.

But its new driver line-up of four-time grand prix winner Carlos Sainz and double podium sitter Alex Albon has no doubt helped things. Sainz, who recently joined from Ferrari, has integrated himself into the team rather nicely and Williams boss James Vowles has been impressed by his feedback and experience.

Although Williams’ single-lap times offer little detail, its long-run pace compared to fellow midfield squads is relatively good. The British outfit had a productive test without any significant problems, so it looks set to become a serious player within the midfield.

5. Alpine

Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Photo by: Alpine

F1 has four teams which are significantly ahead, so fifth-place is simply a case of ‘best of the rest’.

Alpine seems favourite for that tag after an impressive testing session, which marks a remarkable turnaround from 12 months ago when it had an overweight car. But that weight has now gone so Alpine’s pace looks promising and in the calculated long runs, Pierre Gasly was around six-tenths slower than the leaders. 

There was a significant difference between Gasly and his rookie team-mate Jack Doohan though, so an unbalanced driver line-up unlike Williams may come back to haunt.

4. Mercedes

George Russell, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

George Russell was roughly at Ferrari’s level in the long runs, as the Mercedes car looked relatively stable while watching trackside and the team suffered no major setbacks.

There being no setbacks is of course the most important thing at winter testing, especially as Russell previously indicated that Mercedes does not want to fall into the poor development trap of recent years.

Currently, there are no signs that that will happen in 2025 but Mercedes is still slightly behind on pace compared to the reigning constructors’ champion squad McLaren. 

Alongside Russell will be rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who had a solid pre-season test. ‘Solid’ is also the word that goes with Mercedes’ test as a collective.

3. Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari SF-25

Photo by: Ferrari

Expectations for Ferrari this year are high, as it has added to a runner-up finish in 2024 with the signing of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton.

So, the Scuderia is of course aiming to end its 17-year championship drought but its long-run pace in Bahrain was not particularly impressive.

Ferrari lost time on the straights, which may indicate something about engine modes while Hamilton started a race simulation on Friday and aborted it after 12 laps.

The times and tyre degradation put him over four tenths behind McLaren, according to Paceteq, which was similar to team-mate Charles Leclerc a day earlier. More to come from Ferrari.

2. Red Bull

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

It is pretty close between the top teams making it somewhat difficult to judge. But on Wednesday, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko and the four-time, reigning world champion Max Verstappen showed great optimism about the RB21.

Marko said its balance problems had been largely fixed, while Verstappen added that he is yet to encounter any negative surprises with this year’s challenger. But, the Dutchman is still adamant that there is more work to be done with technical director Pierre Wache sharing said belief. 

A full race simulation was also only completed by new driver Liam Lawson, who was seven-tenths short of McLaren’s Lando Norris. But if that were Verstappen in the car, the gap would have no doubt been less putting Red Bull just behind McLaren.

1. McLaren

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Reigning champion McLaren is the clear favourite for the 2025 F1 season. Speaking to members of the paddock, the consensus is that nobody really knows how far behind the rest may be and when looking at the data “it could be two-tenths, three-tenths or five-tenths”.

Nonetheless, McLaren has impressed and particularly when one considers the long run that Norris completed on Thursday. The 2024 drivers’ championship runner-up was consistently fast and the onboard footage may scare rivals even more. 

Competitors are also looking at McLaren’s 2025 car with interest. Red Bull, for instance, called McLaren’s new front suspension ‘interesting, but also risky’. More specifically, that’s about what McLaren is doing with the positioning of the wishbones and anti-dive. So far, it all seems to be working and at a track McLaren has found difficult in recent years.

Pecking order F1 Testing

Photos from the Bahrain Pre-Season Testing – Day 3