UFC Vegas 102 Gambling Preview: Will Gregory Rodrigues beat Jared Cannonier and crack the Top 10?

Following UFC 312 this past weekend, the UFC heads back to its preferred stomping grounds in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 102. Headlined by a middleweight matchup between Jared Cannonier and Gregory Rodrigues, the card features ample opportunity to make some wagers, so let’s dive in.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Gregory Rodrigues (-230)

I wanted to put some money down on Rodrigues by submission, but FanDuel doesn’t have prop bets for this one (speaks to the quality of the APEX), so instead, I’m content to just play Rodrigues straight up. Cannonier turns 41 next month, and he’s got a lot of miles on him. If “Robocop” comes out and brawls, then Cannonier has a chance, but even then Rodrigues has a good enough chin and power to win that. And if he fights smart and uses his takedowns and grappling, Rodrigues should walk to a win here.

Calvin Kattar (+350)

Kattar takes on Youssef Zalal in the co-main event and it’s a make-or-break fight for the Bostonian. Kattar is on a three-fight skid and has lost four of his past five — granted, that’s all come against top opposition, but still. At some point, the losses are too many to overcome. If Kattar drops this one, he’s on the way out.

And that’s partly why I like his chances. Zalal has a sensational 2024, but this is a massive leap up in competition, and the last time he jumped up in competition like this, Zalal washed out of the UFC. Kattar is the superior boxer of the two and if he can show better takedown defense than he did against Aljamain Sterling, this is a coin flip fight.

Ketlen Souza (-110)

Souza takes on Angela Hill in the final prelim fight, and just like in the main event, I’m fading the old veteran with a lot of miles. Hill just turned 40, and she has the most fight time in women’s strawweight history. That’s not ideal. Souza, on the other hand, is 29, on a two-fight winning streak, and has looked exceptional since dropping down to 115. She should be a clear betting favorite, so there’s value here.

Elijah Smith (-150)

Smith makes his UFC debut against Vince Morales in a prelim bantamweight bout, and while it’s a tall task to back a debuting fighter, Smith is worth it. Smith was one of the best prospects to come off the most recent season of Contender Series, and the only real issue for him at this stage is development. Smith is only 22 years old and needs a lot of work. In fact, he’d probably be better served not fighting in the UFC so he can compete 5-6 times a year, but instead, he’s here, and he’s getting a veteran right away. I won’t be stunned if he loses, but the gulf in athleticism in this fight is major, and Smith has the raw tools to win early in his UFC run anyway.

Parlay

As you know by now, there’s nothing I love more than a gimmick parlay, and there were two available, but since the “Jared Parlay” is no longer an option with Jared Gordon’s fight falling off the card, that leaves the extremely obvious Bonfim Bros Parlay.

Ismael Bonfim takes on Nazim Sadykhov in a main card lightweight bout, while Gabriel Bonfim takes on Khaos Williams in a prelim welterweight bout. Both are slight favorites with big tests in front of them, but I like their superior, well-rounded games to carry them both to victory.

Parlay these two bets together for +114 odds.

Wrap Up

It was a losing week for us last week. It’s been a rough start to 2025. Hopefully, we turn things around by heading back to the APEX. In the absence of prop options, we went for a good chunk of straight bets, so maybe that’ll work out for us.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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