9:45pm: The sides have an agreement on a one-year deal, writes Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune.
5:20pm: The Padres are nearing a deal with infielder/outfielder Connor Joe, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Financials for the John Boggs & Associates client aren’t publicly known at this time. The Padres have multiple 40-man vacancies, so no corresponding move will be required.
Joe, 32, has been roughly a league average bat in his career but decent in a platoon capacity. In his 1,582 plate appearances, he has hit .242/.337/.391 for a wRC+ of 97, indicating he’s just been 3% below par. A right-handed hitter, Joe has a .254/.350/.415 slash and 107 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a .235/.329/.377 line and 91 wRC+ against righties.
Defensively, he is capable of playing at first base or in an outfield corner. He has five Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder in his career. Outs Above Average is a bit more pessimistic, giving him a -7 score. However, both metrics consider him above average as a first baseman.
The Pirates could have retained Joe for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $3.2MM salary, but the Bucs decided to non-tender him instead. That sent him into free agency without being exposed to waivers.
Though the financials of this deal haven’t been reported yet, it’s surely a fairly modest guarantee by MLB standards. That’s obviously attractive for the Padres, since the budget is clearly a major concern, as it has been for a while. Last winter, the payroll crunch was tight enough that they dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees. This winter, they’ve been fairly quiet, but rumors have swirled around players like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez, Robert Suarez and others.
The tight payroll situation is awkward because they have a few clear holes on the roster. Jurickson Profar hit free agency and signed with Atlanta, leaving an opening in left field. The first base/designated hitter situation is also somewhat open. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim hit free agency and signed with the Rays. The Padres are going to move Xander Bogaerts from second base, his primary position last year, back to short. That will seemingly allow Jake Cronenworth to move from first base to second base on a regular basis. Arráez, who served as the designated hitter a lot last year, could be the regular first baseman. Useful part-time players like David Peralta and Donovan Solano also hit free agency at the end of last season, subtracting from the bench/depth area.
Having Joe in the mix gives the Padres some options. He could see time at first base, pushing Arráez back into the DH spot. In left field, Tirso Ornelas projects as the top option at the moment despite having no major league experience. Bringing Joe aboard will push Ornelas down the depth chart, though he could still push for and earn playing time, with depth options like Eguy Rosario and Brandon Lockridge also possibilities to earn at-bats. Ornelas is a lefty bat, so perhaps a platoon with Joe is possible.
The market for part-time outfielders has been moving steadily in recent days. In the past two weeks, Austin Hays, Adam Frazier, Ramón Laureano, Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader have signed one-year deals ranging from $1.5MM to $6.25MM. Joe’s details haven’t been reported yet but it’s possible he’s in there as well. For clubs still looking for outfield help, players like Alex Verdugo, Jason Heyward and Peralta are some of the unsigned options.
RosterResource currently puts the Padres at a payroll of $205MM and a competitive balance tax number of $245MM. It’s unclear exactly how much wiggle room they have in terms of the pure payroll. As far as the CBT goes, they are currently just $4MM over the $241MM base threshold. It’s presumed that they would want to be below that line, which is understandable, given how close they are.
They didn’t pay the tax in 2024, so they would be a “first-time” payor if they did so in 2025, which would lead to a modest 20% base tax rate for their overages. However, paying the tax also leads to lesser compensation when it comes to players rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere. Cease, King and Arráez are all impending free agents and candidates for a QO if they stick with the club through the end of the year, which could incentivize the Padres to duck under the tax line by season’s end if they’re at all close.
