Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the pay-per-view (PPV) market for the upcoming UFC 312 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, headlined by the middleweight title fight between reigning 185-pound kingpin, Dricus Du Plessis, and former division titleholder, Sean Strickland. The action takes place this Sunday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, but airs Sat. night (Feb. 8) in most markets due to the discrepancy in time zones.
Remember, you’ll need a subscription to ESPN+ (sign up here) to stream UFC 312.
Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a strawweight co-headliner pitting 115-pound champion, Zhang Weili, opposite unbeaten division contender Tatiana Suarez, as well as the heavyweight collision showcasing local hero, Justin Tafa, against Brazilian interloper, Tallison Teixeira, be sure to check out all the UFC 312 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2” PPV lineup here.
Let’s see what the PPV main card has in store for us this weekend “Down Under.”
185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (22-2) vs. Sean “Tarzan” Strickland (29-6)
Sean Strickland is looking to prove that he was the better fighter at UFC 297, where he was allegedly robbed of a decision against Dricus Du Plessis by “dirty Canadian leftists.” What started as mildly-amusing shtick is now boorish and overplayed, because his repeated attempts to market himself as some bloodthirsty savage with an MMA death wish, the Octagon version of “Tarzan” (separated from his media personality) is just the opposite, a volume striker with no power and endless cardio. That’s why his 7-3 record across his last 10 fights returns six wins by decision. Even two of his three losses have gone to the judges’ scorecards, because — in Strickland’s words — it’s a “chess match.”
“The difference is when you’re fighting world-class fighters, like we had Johnny Eblen out of Bellator here. You watch me and Johnny fight, it’s a f*cking chess match,” Strickland told ESPN. “World-class level striking meets world-class level striking. You’ll watch the pinnacle of any sport, and you’re like why is it different? Because I’m fighting the very best. So, you bring in anybody who’s not a top world champion, it’s easy. But you bring in an elite-level striker who’s been training their entire life for this moment, and it’s a chess match.”
I don’t think anyone would confuse the champion’s style for chess, unless he’s playing in a junkyard with monster trucks. If you compare the last 10 fights of Du Plessis, where the South African stands at 10-0, eight of his victories have come by way of knockout or submission, which includes finishes over ex-middleweight champions Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Statistically speaking, Du Plessis lands more strikes per minute than Strickland with better accuracy and outperforms “Tarzan” in offensive wrestling. That said, Strickland was the busier fighter at UFC 297 and may be equally effective in tomorrow night’s rematch, simply because of his commitment to the jab and overall striking game. Du Plessis, on the other hand, just comes forward with everything and the kitchen sink.
“It’s such a weird style that it’s hard to really figure out,” former UFC welterweight title challenger, Stephen Thompson, told Submission Radio. “It’s like, sometimes, I have a hard time with people that don’t have a lot of skill just because they’re so spastic and they throw techniques from out of nowhere. It’s so weird. I can see how people would have a lot of difficulty fighting him. Because he does a lot of pulling techniques, he does spinning techniques. It is like with no real good technique.”
“And I understand where he’s coming from, when people are breaking down his fights,” Thompson continued. “He’s out there not thinking about it, but it’s all in the training, how he’s developing all this. Even though he’s not thinking about it, what he’s doing is working because it’s years of preparation, doing all the sparring and things like that. But he’s such a weird striker, man. It works, man. It freaking works.”
Strickland, a former champion still in his prime, is not to be taken lightly, having previously scored victories over the aforementioned Adesanya and red-hot middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov. With that in mind, I do think that if Strickland was going to defeat Du Plessis, UFC 297 was the place to do it. “Stillknocks’” style is not something you can adjust to after just one fight; whereas “Tarzan” may be easier to figure out with five rounds already in the books. Du Plessis is not an undefeated fighter and certainly not without his flaws, but until I see an opponent exploit those flaws and find the win column, it’s going to be very hard to pick against him, which is probably why so many fans were hoping for that Khamzat fight.
Prediction: Du Plessis def. Strickland by technical knockout
115 lbs.: UFC Strawweight Champion Zhang “Magnum” Weili (25-3) vs. Tatiana Suarez (10-0)
After a brief run on the regional circuit, Tatiana Suarez was selected to participate on Season 23 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), coached by then-strawweight rivals Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. Not surprisingly, Suarez cut through the TUF competition the way Freddy Krueger cuts through sleepy teenagers, which includes her finale victory over Amanda Bobby Brundage back in summer 2016. Big things were expected for the one-time Olympic hopeful, but injuries and personal setbacks plagued Suarez throughout her UFC career, leading to a measly two fights over the last five years. Now 34, the Californian will have an opportunity to compete for gold after wiping out some of the top names in the division, including former champions Jéssica Andrade and Carla Esparza.
“The time is now,” Suarez said during the UFC 312 media day. “I thought it would be years ago, but my time is now. Just excited to be here. I’m super relentless. I keep going. I have a really good gas tank. The thing that separates me from a lot of people is just my relentlessness. My wrestling is second to none. I have a series of attacks that I’m good at, and once I start flowing, it’s very, very hard to stop me. And in just grappling in general, they think that they’re safe, and all of a sudden they’re in a choke.”
There’s a good argument for naming Zhang Weili one of the most exciting champions in any weight class, male of female. “Magnum” sports five post-fight performance bonuses, which includes her insane, five-round car crash against the aforementioned Jedrzejczyk at UFC 248. What makes Weili such an effective talent is her ability to be dangerous anywhere the fight goes. She has crushing knockout power, sneaky submissions, and a champion’s gas tank. In addition, Weili has only been outwrestled once in 11 UFC fights and that came in her submission win over Carla Esparza at UFC 281. That said, it’s important to note that “Magnum” can be taken down by above-average wrestlers whereas Suarez has a takedown defense of 100 percent. If Weili is going to win this fight, she’s going to win it standing up — and that means staying off the floor against a multi-time medalist in women’s freestyle wrestling. Possible? Sure. Plausible? Probably not.
“I believe I would fight Tatiana sooner or later because she has a great track record, and she’s also very high in the rankings,” Weili told MMA Junkie. “I think Tatiana is very good at grappling and wrestling, and I’m very happy I can fight with her in Australia. I think Tatiana is the best wrestler and grappler of all the opponents I have faced. But I think all of Tatiana’s strengths have a way to solve it and a way to handle it. She has faced many adversities in her life so I’m sure she will be very persistent. I don’t think I need to prove people wrong. Tatiana is a good fighter and I understand why people think this is a close fight.”
Weili has not faced a wrestler with the credentials or doggedness of Suarez — who was 9-11 on takedowns against Esparza — and I’m not convinced she will be able to weather the incoming storm. At the same time, the challenger has never dealt with the type of violent blitzkrieg that comes from Weili — and every bout starts on the feet. I don’t think “Magnum” can do enough damage to end the fight before Suarez finds her rhythm, and that is going to put the champion on her back for as long as Suarez wants to keep her there. Spoiler alert: it won’t be long.
Prediction: Suarez def. Weili by submission
265 lbs.: Justin “Bad Man” Tafa (7-4, 1 NC) vs. Tallison “Xicao” Teixeira (7-0)
Justin Tafa, much like his brother Junior Tafa, is not really a mixed martial artist, which is why he’s yet to score a takedown or win by submission in 12 professional fights. “Bad Man” is just there to bang, bro, which has its place in professional prize fighting, I guess. I just wish that place wasn’t the main card of a major PPV; but hey, the locals will stand and cheer for any gunslinger repping their home turf. It’s just a shame Tafa is going to get executed in front of his people because Tallison Teixeira, six years younger than the Aussie at 25, is a 6’7” monster with an astounding 83” reach.
“It’s easy to feel like you’re the shark when you’ve been dominating, until you meet someone else that’s another shark,” Tafa said during the UFC 312 media day. “He had that fight against someone that had finished all his opponents, too. My brother has been tested, that’s why he came away with the ‘W.’ That was the difference.”
Tafa stands just 6’ with a 74” reach and yet somehow managed to miss the heavyweight mark at UFC Vegas 45 back in late 2021, the first and only time a combatant has exceeded the 265-pound limit. I don’t want to get too crazy over Teixeira because we all saw what happened with karate wunderkind Robelis Despaigne, who is the same size as “Xicao,” but Tafa can’t wrestle and has no ground game. In addition, Teixeira is making his Octagon debut after destroying Arthur Lopes on Dana White’s “Contender Series,” so there is still a long way to go before anointing him the chosen one. I will just say that anyone who think Teixeira is just a tall striker with heavy hands should know he also holds one victory by submission and that’s by way of inverted triangle armbar.
Prediction: Teixeira def. Tafa by knockout
205 lbs.: Jimmy “The Brute” Crute (12-4-1) vs. Rodolfo “Trator” Bellato (12-2)
Look, I know how the business works and the promotion always tries to fill its lineup with local stars, but Jimmy Crute hasn’t won a fight in over four years and should be on the UFC 312 preliminary card. The only saving grace is that Rodolfo Bellato, who like Tallison Teixeira is a product of Dana White’s “Contender Series,” gets a chance to showcase his formidable skills on the big stage, because “Trator” is expected to make waves in the crowded light heavyweight division.
Crute is no stranger to “Contender Series,” blasting his way into the promotion with a first round finish over Chris Birchler back in summer 2018. “The Brute” jumped out to a 4-1 start in the years that followed and even found some real estate in the division Top 15, only to sputter and stall across his next four fights, posting three losses with one draw. More concerning is that Crute was finished in all three defeats.
Bellato needed two appearances on “Contender Series” to land his UFC contract and we’ve only seen him once since late 2023, courtesy of his second-round destruction over Ihor Potieria at UFC Austin.
“I had a serious kidney issue — a severe infection caused by bacteria,” Bellato told Sherdog.com. “This kept me away from high-performance training for a while. However, I never stopped training. I trained any way I could. I believe that my career so far is like real life. We have ups and downs. The most important thing is to always have a good mindset and learn from victories and defeats. I have learned and matured a lot.”
“I accepted this fight with 30 days’ notice, but I’m a guy who’s always training, regardless of whether I have a fight scheduled or not,” Bellato continued. “I am always looking for and waiting for the opportunity to fight. He’s an experienced athlete with several fights in the organization. He’ll show up motivated since he’ll be fighting at home, but that doesn’t scare me. I know what I have to do to walk out of there victorious. I’m going to bring this victory back to Brazil.”
Crute is a relentless wrestler who averages more than four takedowns per fight and no doubt that will be the order of the day against a powerhouse like Bellato. But the Brazilian also has four wins by submission, including a triangle choke, which should give Crute yet another set of problems to deal with on fight night.
Prediction: Bellato def. Crute by technical knockout
170 lbs.: Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (20-7) vs. Francisco Prado (12-2)
Jake Matthews has been fighting in UFC for more than a decade, appearing every year since his Octagon debut opposite Dashon Johnson at UFC Fight Night 43 in Auckland, New Zealand, an event headlined by Nate Marquardt vs. James Te Huna. I’m not trying to throw any shade at “The Celtic Kid,” who is still in his prime at 30 years old, but he’s competed in 20 UFC fights and remains unranked at 170 pounds, establishing a clear ceiling for the 20-7 Aussie. At the same time, having enough success to last 20 fights (and then some) is pretty amazing on its own, so clearly he must be doing something right — just not at a championship level. Matthews is good at everything and great at nothing, compiling a cohesive mix of knockouts (5) and submissions (8) in his 20 victories. His most recent appearance ended in a unanimous decision nod over Philip Rowe at UFC 302 last June.
The promotion had high hopes for Francisco Prado when he crossed over from the International circuit as an undefeated prospect back in early 2023. Unfortunately, the Argentinian has only managed a 1-2 record in three trips to the Octagon, which includes his “Fight of the Night” loss to Daniel Zellhuber in early 2024. To be fair, Prado is still just 22 years old and may need a little more time under the lamps. Like Matthews, the former Samurai Fight House champion is as good on the feet as he is on the ground, which should make for an interesting battle when these two hook ‘em up this weekend in Sydney.
“He’s a fighter that’s been in the UFC for a long time, and maintaining yourself at that level is not easy, so you have to respect,” Prado told Hablemos MMA. “I respect him a ton. I think he’s a very complete fighter with a good base in striking. I think this fight is going to be enjoyed by a lot of fans. I like moving forward. And like I’m telling you, I don’t think he’s in his prime and his best days are behind him. I’m going to show that. You guys will see on Saturday.”
“The bonuses have come due to my style and for wanting to get into fights,” Prado continued. “I didn’t come here to be all studious and thoughtful when it comes to competing. I like going forward, and finishing my fights. All my victories have come by finish. In this case, I’m here to get a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus, but if Jake is up to the level, then maybe we’ll take ‘Fight of the Night.’”
Matthews holds advantages in both height and reach; but more importantly, in experience. I just don’t think Prado is ready for this level of competition (yet) and will likely find himself one step behind the hometown favorite every step of the fight, though it’s likely to be wall-to-wall action for all three rounds. That’s assuming “The Celtic Kid” doesn’t short circuit or do something stupid but outside of that, look for a clear sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Matthews def. Prado by unanimous decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 312 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” bouts scheduled for 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, followed by the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 312: “Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 312 fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.
