The Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Payments on Wild Card Weekend. Now we have fantasy soccer start-sit recommendation for each fantasy-relevant participant for the Broncos so you may make one of the best choices in your lineups.
Are you on the lookout for recommendation for different gamers in your lineup? Learn our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Begin-Sit Recommendation Cheat Sheet for each fantasy-relevant participant in each recreation.
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix made NFL historical past as the primary rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion charge in 4 video games. He additionally matched the franchise report for such video games in a season (Peyton Manning had 4 in each 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton bought his man within the draft, we simply had no concept that this could be a fantasy-friendly state of affairs from the bounce.
Everyone seems to be choosing the Payments to win this recreation, however few individuals determine to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing recreation, Nix might very properly be put ready the place he must do all of it, a pleasant function given the discounted value within the DFS streets.
Buffalo has loads of strengths, however they’re the worst playoff group in getting off the sector (43.8% opponent third-down conversion charge; NFL common: 39.7%) and wrestle towards the slot (fifth-highest completion share). These weaknesses can elevate Nix’s ground, one thing that could be very interesting on condition that we’re conscious of his ceiling potential by way of Courtland Sutton and/or his speeding means.
I’m not clicking on Nix in a money setting the place half the sector is paid out, however in the event you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a really energetic possibility.
Audric Estimé, RB
Audric Estimé has scored in two of his previous three video games, however you’d have to actually be seeking to be completely different to go this path with Denver being such a giant underdog.
NFL dropback charges, 2015-24:
Trailing: 67.7%
Tied: 58.2%
Main: 51.7%
Dashing makes an attempt could possibly be restricted for the Broncos, and that’s a loss of life sentence relating to any hope for Estimé. Is it true {that a} operating again in a Sean Payton scheme can rip-off his option to PPR factors? It certain is, however we’ve got no proof that the rookie can be utilized in such a task.
In a blowout win over the Falcons, he caught three passes in 5 performs – he has two different catches on his NFL résumé. We’re a participant who doesn’t have a contact gaining 10+ yards in two months and initiatives for, at greatest, 6-8 touches.
I’m nice with focusing on uncertainty in a playoff setting, however we appear to have a stage of certainty in Estimé not being a constant a part of this offense.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB
I’m going to do a number of irresponsible issues right here to show a degree. Persist with me right here.
In 12 months 2, Christian McCaffrey picked up 41.8% of his speeding yards after first contact and gained no less than 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
In 12 months 2, Jaleel McLaughlin picked up 41.2% of his speeding yards after first contact and gained no less than 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
Need some extra propaganda? You’re in the precise spot.
Since Week 12, McLaughlin’s 10+ yard carry charge was as much as 18.5%, the best within the league. The subsequent gamers on that record amongst qualifiers:
2. Derrick Henry: 17.2percent3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 16.2percent4. Bijan Robinson: 14.6%
We clearly solely have a lot movie to go on for McLaughlin, however he appears to be like like extra than simply one of the best again in Denver. Sean Payton loves what Bo Nix brings to the desk, however I don’t assume getting right into a shootout with Josh Allen is on the to-do record this week, furthering my perception that we might get a real breakout efficiency from this backfield towards a Payments protection that ranks twenty third at stopping operating again yardage earlier than contact.
I’ve bought him penciled into my first run of a DraftKings GPP lineup for the complete Wild Card slate:
QB: Jayden Daniels (at TB)RB: Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)RB: McLaughlin (at BUF)WR: Ladd McConkey (at HOU)WR: Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)WR: Marvin Mims (at BUF)TE: Zach Ertz (at TB)FLEX: Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)D/ST: Eagles (vs. GB)
Javonte Williams, RB
Thanks, however no thanks. Javonte Williams’ function has been trending within the incorrect path for some time now, and what I noticed final week was greater than sufficient for me to have zero curiosity.
With their season on the road, Jaleel McLaughlin (41.7% share) out-snapped Williams (29.2%) in a significant manner, and that was the sport plan coming in — McLaughlin’s edge was 61.9% to 23.8% within the first quarter.
Williams has a number of receptions in all however two video games this season, so in the event you assume the Broncos aren’t aggressive within the least, possibly he’ll get there, however that’s a skinny path to success and never one I imagine in. Williams is within the remaining 12 months of his deal, so even when that recreation script had been to play out, wouldn’t Sean Payton be extra prone to get his youthful choices some playoff reps?
I’ll have publicity to loads of gamers this weekend, however Williams is not going to be on that record.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton has scored 18 occasions on 225 targets over the previous two seasons (earlier two seasons: 4 touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns could be fluky on a game-to-game foundation, nevermind season-to-season, however the utilization tendencies are very a lot in his favor, and that’s what I’m snug with on this profile
This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% final season). This offense is healthier than we might have imagined and they’re routinely trusting their WR1 with ending drives, one thing that makes the spike in scoring charge rather more sustainable.
And it’s solely getting higher.
Throughout the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a quantity that trails solely triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Corridor of Famer Davante Adams, and possibly one of the best receiver within the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Payments are a mean red-zone protection that enables touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (twenty second), giving us each motive to assume that Denver’s WR1 can as soon as once more produce.
All of the indicators look nice, together with the projected recreation script, however that is the spot the place I’m getting my leverage. I’m not assured that any member of Denver garners a ton of possession. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated manner for my upside lineup and it doesn’t embrace their alpha goal earner.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR
It’s not what you mentioned, it’s the way you mentioned it.
We’ve all heard it and all of us worry what comes subsequent – fortunately, the fantasy soccer model is a constructive. For Marvin Mims Jr. on this Sean Payton offense, it’s not how typically he’s on the sector, however how he’s used. He ran 146 routes this season, simply three greater than a season in the past, however he generated 22 extra targets and scored 47.1 extra fantasy factors.
We frequently preach endurance with younger receivers all through their rookie season, however contemplating that development just isn’t linear on the place, why not prolong that courtesy into 12 months 2 with a altering offensive construction?
Mims has been approaching in a giant manner and performed a crucial function within the Broncos qualifying for the postseason … and I feel he might preserve the great occasions rolling!
The Payments personal a bottom-five blitz charge and a bottom-10 stress charge this season (their stress charge sits at 32.5%, the bottom amongst playoff groups). To not be overly dramatic however Mims turns into an All-Professional receiver when Bo Nix isn’t sped up.
Yards per route run when their QB just isn’t pressured, 2024:
The Payments rank twentieth in opponent deep completion share (45%) and twenty first in deep landing charge (7.3%), leaving the door open for Mims to make the kind of splash play that can be wanted for the highway group to drag off the upset.
The danger goes with out saying – the subsequent recreation Mims runs 15 routes in a Nix recreation can be his first. We are able to drive Sean Payton’s hand to place him on the sector, however we could be impressed with the probabilities he has gotten: 28 catches (32 targets) on his 84 routes since Week 10.
The Broncos rank sixth in go charge over expectation this season after checking in at twenty fourth in Payton’s first season. It’s nearly like having a hand-picked QB to run your system helps, go determine. I count on that “expectations” a part of that metric to work in our favor with Denver opening as an 8.5-point underdog.
There’s no flier I like extra in Wild Card DFS contests this week. For playoff codecs, the mathematics adjustments a bit, as you’d have to love Denver to advance greater than I do, so tread frivolously there. In weekly GPP codecs, by all means, shoot your shot!
