5 causes to imagine the Chiefs will three-peat in 2024

At 15-1, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have the NFL’s finest report. However many league observers stay unconvinced the crew has an actual shot at successful its third consecutive league championship.

Listed here are 5 causes they may be incorrect.

1. The Chiefs are excellent in one-score video games

A lot has been made about Kansas Metropolis setting a brand new NFL report by successful “14 consecutive one-score video games.” This has been broadly misinterpreted to imply the Chiefs had performed 14 straight one-score video games.

In fact, this occurred over 18 video games — beginning with the Chiefs’ 25-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 of final season. Video games that weren’t settled by one rating are simply ignored.

Since setting a brand new report of 14, the crew has had 4 extra matchups — successful all of them. Two have been determined by single scores. So, 73% of the video games on this 22-game stretch have been determined by eight or fewer factors.

And sure… that’s so much. Over the past 10 seasons, 53% of NFL video games have been determined that narrowly, so it will be straightforward to assume that the Chiefs are some form of loopy outlier.

However they’re not.

Listed here are the ten NFL groups with the very best proportion of one-score video games throughout that very same interval — starting with Week 17 of final season and together with the postseason.

Whereas Kansas Metropolis has greater than some other crew — and the very best proportion — it’s not precisely an outlier. Two different groups are at 70%. Three others are above 60%.

However the Chiefs are a little bit of an outlier in a extra essential statistic: the variety of victories in these shut video games. Over this similar interval, listed here are the groups with the perfect successful percentages in one-score video games.

If the season ended right this moment, all however considered one of these groups could be within the playoffs. So it’s unclear why successful one-score video games is unhealthy. It positive appears to be like like successful shut video games is a part of the NFL’s components for achievement.

But it surely’s not as if Kansas Metropolis has simply now found out how one can do it. Since Patrick Mahomes took over the offense in 2018, the Chiefs’ report in one-score video games is 47-20. That 0.701 report tops the league throughout that point. And it’s not nearly about Patrick Mahomes, both. Throughout the 10 consecutive seasons Kansas Metropolis has been within the playoffs, it has a report of 0.667 in one-score video games — second solely to the Pittsburgh Steelers at 0.670.

2. The Chiefs’ success isn’t constructed on luck

Solely a idiot would deny that luck has performed a task in an NFL crew’s 15-1 report. Because the famous thinker Joe Montana typically advised his followers, “The ball is formed bizarre. Typically it bounces humorous.” But it surely’s flat-out incorrect to counsel that Kansas Metropolis’s report has all been constructed on fortunate bounces.

Certain… Matthew Wright’s 31-yard subject aim try that bounced off the left upright and over the crossbar to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14 was fortunate. However no luck was concerned in Kansas Metropolis blocking the Denver Broncos’ last-second subject aim try in Week 10. That was a superb particular groups play the Chiefs had deliberate after discovering a weak spot within the Broncos’ subject aim makes an attempt.

In fact… it was fortunate for Kansas Metropolis that the Las Vegas Raiders selected a third-and-3 play with 14 seconds left of their Week 13 matchup for the middle and quarterback to get their wires crossed and put a shotgun snap on the bottom. However there was nothing fortunate about Chiefs’ linebacker Nick Bolton breaking into the backfield to recuperate the free ball.

These arguments solely give attention to the crew’s good luck. The Chiefs have had loads of unhealthy luck, too. Shedding vast receiver Hollywood Brown — their high free agent acquisition — on the primary offensive snap of the preseason definitely counts as unhealthy luck. So does dropping Rashee Rice to a “pleasant fireplace” harm in Week 4, Jaylen Watson in Week 6 and newly-signed left sort out D.J. Humphries in his first recreation with the crew.

So sure… the Chiefs have benefited from some good luck. However they’ve needed to battle off their share of unhealthy luck, too. That’s what all NFL groups do. Championship groups simply do it higher.

3. Key gamers have returned

Talking of Brown, there’s little doubt the crew will likely be higher now that he has returned to the sector. The identical is true of operating again Isiah Pacheco.

However within the 5 video games defensive finish Charles Omenihu has performed since his return, the crew’s sacks have virtually doubled, going from 1.9 per recreation to three.6 — whereas the variety of blitzes per recreation has declined 30% from 13.3 to 9.2. On the similar time, whole quarterback pressures have remained comparatively regular, dropping from 10.5 per recreation to 9.6.

Like Chris Jones, Omenihu is a participant who could be efficient each inside and outdoors. When he’s within the lineup, it’s simpler for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to maintain defenses guessing. This permits him to carry quarterback strain extra typically — and provides it a greater likelihood to get house — when he sends simply 4 go rushers.

This additionally advantages the go protection. Throughout this five-game span, opponent passer scores have dropped from 91.8 to 75.1, and factors allowed have dropped from 19.8 to 14.0 per recreation.

4. Key gamers have arrived

The accidents to Rice and Pacheco opened the door for 2 gamers we by no means imagined would play for the Chiefs this season: vast receiver DeAndre Hopkins and operating again Kareem Hunt.

Throughout a number of offseasons, Hopkins had been reported to be a participant Kansas Metropolis had sought in free company. Issues had by no means labored out. However after Rice’s harm, common supervisor Brett Veach acquired him by way of a commerce with the Tennesee Titans — and found out a option to pay him the stability of his 2024 wage.

Whereas he’s averaged simply 4.1 receptions (and 43.1 yards) every recreation, Hopkins’ contributions have been vital. His presence has helped the crew get extra manufacturing from tight finish Travis Kelce (who averaged 40.8 yards a recreation earlier than Hopkins arrived, however 57.8 since then) whereas additionally making large performs of his personal.

Then there’s Hunt, who acquired up from his sofa to return to the crew — and instantly turned the beginning operating again. The 29-year-old veteran could also be a step or two slower than he was when the crew launched him in 2018, however he’s nonetheless a fierce competitor who could be trusted to get tough yards. He performed so effectively that when Pacheco returned, Hunt continued to have an essential position within the offense.

5. The Chiefs have already made historical past

Earlier than NFL free company started, it was pretty frequent for groups to win back-to-back Tremendous Bowls. 5 groups did so in the course of the recreation’s first 28 years.

However after free company began, it’s been a completely completely different story. After the Denver Broncos did it, they went 6-10 in 1999. The New England Patriots did slightly higher in 2005, ending the season 10-6 and successful in opposition to a Wild Card crew within the first spherical — however then misplaced to the Broncos within the Divisional spherical.

So of their try at a three-peat, the Chiefs have already had extra success than some other crew within the free company period.

Does that imply Kansas Metropolis will waltz proper by way of the playoffs and win Tremendous Bowl LIX in New Orleans? No. The Tremendous Bowl champion is the crew that may win three (or 4) consecutive video games in opposition to the NFL’s finest groups. That’s very onerous to do — which is precisely why it took virtually twenty years for one more crew to have an opportunity at a three-peat.

However make no mistake: the Chiefs are professional contenders who’re as well-positioned as some other crew to win the 2024 championship. In the event that they fail, there will likely be no disgrace in it. In the event that they succeed, their glory will likely be richly earned.