Alaina Getzenberg
Eric Woodyard
Eric Woodyard
ESPN
Eric Woodyard covers the Detroit Lions for ESPN. He joined ESPN in September 2019 as an NBA reporter devoted to the Midwest area earlier than switching to his present position in April 2021. The Flint, Mich. native is a graduate of Western Michigan College and has authored/co-authored three books: “Wasted, Ethan’s Expertise Search” and “All In: The Kelvin Torbert Story”. He’s a proud dad or mum of 1 son, Ethan. You may comply with him on Twitter: @E_Woodyard
The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Payments are two of the 12 NFL groups which have by no means received a Tremendous Bowl. A 3rd of these franchises have by no means appeared within the recreation, together with the Lions. None has misplaced 4 straight appearances just like the Payments.
The 2 Canadian-border cities have supported their groups by way of thick and skinny. Detroit and Buffalo each dream of reaching soccer’s highest stage of success — to this point, out of attain.
The 2 groups will meet on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) in what might be a Tremendous Bowl preview. The Lions (37.9%) and Payments (27.2%) are the favorites of their conferences to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl, in accordance with ESPN Analytics.
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With each groups already punching the ticket to the postseason, the following step for the Lions is successful the NFC North with the Payments having already clinched the AFC East. Each groups have their eyes on the No. 1 seed with 4 video games to go. The Payments (10-3) and Lions (12-1) enter this matchup with a mixed win share of .846, tied for the fourth highest getting into a matchup in Week 15 or later for the reason that 1970 merger, per ESPN Analysis.
The quarterbacks have led the best way. The Payments’ Josh Allen is the chief in MVP odds, per ESPN BET, and leads the league in Whole QBR (76.7), whereas the Lions’ Jared Goff has put collectively the very best season of his profession, finishing 72.4% of passes. The performances have led to high-scoring offenses. This would be the fourth time for the reason that 1970 merger that two groups averaging 30 factors per recreation met in Week 15 or later, per Elias Sports activities Bureau.
Recreation of the season? Perhaps so. This is how the 2 groups stack up.
Detroit Lions (12-1)
FPI general rating: 1st (8.4)
Possibilities to win division: 89.4%
Possibilities to make the playoffs: 100%
Possibilities to earn No. 1 seed: 76%
Possibilities to succeed in/win Tremendous Bowl: 38.7 / 24.7%
Remaining schedule: vs. Payments, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
What makes the Lions offense so good?
The straightforward reply is the expertise on this roster. Nonetheless, it is far more than that. Goff is guiding the ship alongside coach Dan Campbell and basic supervisor Brad Holmes. The Lions have put collectively a roster stuffed with younger gamers by way of the draft who’ve contributed instantly, akin to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta and RT Penei Sewell, who’re all 25 or youthful.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can also be arguably the league’s prime playcaller, and he is not afraid to tug out all of the stops on any given possession. Underneath his steerage, the Lions have some of the inventive and productive offenses within the NFL, which has helped make Johnson a prime head teaching candidate heading into the offseason.
How has Goff made an impression on this group?
Goff is having an MVP-caliber season, aided by the numerous weapons round him. Getting into Sunday’s matchup, the primary general choose from 2016 has accomplished at the least 75% of his passes seven instances this season, which is tied for the second-most such video games in a season all-time behind Tom Brady (eight in 2007), per ESPN Analysis, with a minimal 15 cross makes an attempt in every recreation. Extra importantly, Goff has earned the belief of his teammates because the man to get the franchise to its first Tremendous Bowl.
“The way in which he goes about his enterprise, he is available in every day the identical man and all people gravitates in direction of his power,” Sewell instructed ESPN. “All of us simply comply with, and all of us love that about him.”
How can the Lions attain the Tremendous Bowl?
The Lions have a top-five offense and a top-five protection and have reeled off 11 consecutive victories. So, they simply must proceed acting at that stage. They can not skip steps and Campbell is all the time stressing consideration to element every week throughout preparation. With the squad they’ve, Detroit is assured and presents a nightmare matchup for any group within the league.
“We nonetheless perceive the project. We all know it doesn’t matter what, it is as much as us,” Lions rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold instructed ESPN. “We’re not trying on the different elements so far as what they do, it goes by way of us.”
What might preserve the Lions from making a deep playoff run?
Accidents. It is a miracle that Detroit has continued to play at such a excessive stage whereas being with out the likes of Professional Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a damaged tibia and fibula in Week 6 at Dallas. However he is not the one defender down.
The Lions had a league-high 13 defensive gamers on the injured reserve record for final week’s 34-31 over the Packers, after which noticed defensive sort out Alim McNeill dominated out for the second half with a concussion. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has to this point been in a position to adapt, however it’s essential to ponder whether these accidents will catch up sooner or later.
Who do the Lions have to fret about on this upcoming matchup?
With the Lions (32.1 PPG) and Payments (30.5 PPG) rating first and second within the NFL in scoring offense this season, Detroit’s protection should be prepared for the problem. Buffalo has explosive weapons in quarterback Josh Allen, operating again James Prepare dinner and broad receiver Khalil Shakir. Even with all of Detroit’s defensive accidents, Lions cornerback Carlton Davis mentioned they’re going to proceed to view the Payments as a “anonymous, faceless opponent” — that means the group’s primary focus is on week-to-week enchancment, irrespective of the opponent.
“I really feel like we have been getting examined all 12 months. Final week was a take a look at with Inexperienced Bay coming in scorching and we have had completely different assessments this 12 months,” Davis instructed ESPN. “It is a part of the sport, it is the NFL … for us, we’re simply going to work. We’re clocking in and nonetheless your habits are will make you win. It is the identical.”
Buffalo Payments (10-3)
FPI general rating: 2nd (6.7)
Possibilities to win division: 100%
Possibilities to make the playoffs: 100%
Possibilities to earn No. 1 seed: 17.1%
Possibilities to succeed in/win Tremendous Bowl: 27.2% / 14.1%
Remaining schedule: @ Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, @ Patriots
What makes the Payments offense so good?
Josh Allen. This offense isn’t almost nearly as good or profitable with out No. 17.
Lots of the statistics do not essentially bounce off the web page for the quarterback, however he has thrown simply 5 interceptions in comparison with 14 by way of 13 video games final season and the Payments are second within the league in turnovers.
The offensive line has been one other key purpose for the Payments’ success, permitting a league-low 13 sacks and having consistency, with just one starter lacking a recreation this 12 months. It is a line that may be dominant up entrance as seen within the win over the 49ers (220 dashing yards).
How has Allen made an impression on this group?
How hasn’t he can be a shorter query to reply. He is stepped up as a frontrunner this 12 months as considered one of two group captains (the opposite, LB Terrel Bernard).
In his seventh season, Allen has proven the flexibility to place the group on his again and rating each along with his legs and his arm. He’s tied for second within the NFL in whole touchdowns (32).
The Payments have received video games this season largely due to Allen’s potential to make a play when it is wanted; there is no higher instance than his successful landing run on fourth right down to beat the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
How can the Payments attain the Tremendous Bowl?
Every thing falling into place. That might sound overly easy, however in playoff run after playoff run for the Payments all kinds of hurdles have impeded their manner. From accidents to poor clock administration to defensive miscues, however this group has proven it has the expertise, teaching and talent to play with the league’s finest.
Allen has executed on the highest ranges within the postseason. Taking that subsequent step will come from the protection and particular groups exhibiting up when it issues most.
What might preserve the Payments from making a deep playoff run?
Protection. Too many huge performs allowed has been the difficulty, placed on show in opposition to their Week 14 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams.
The Payments have allowed the third-most performs of 10 or extra yards, together with tied for the third-most such passing performs. The Baltimore Ravens’ and Rams’ offenses confirmed the flexibility to benefit from that.
The Payments’ incapacity to get off the sphere on third down (twenty fifth) is one other hassle space. The priority for the Payments extends to the bottom with consistency points in opposition to the run.
One space to look at: Kicker Tyler Bass. He has improved after early-season woes, however his reliability remains to be a priority.
Who do the Payments have to fret about on this upcoming matchup?
Does your entire offense depend? The Lions are an enormous general problem, however particularly for the Payments’ protection going up in opposition to Goff, a formidable operating again duo in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and broad receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Successful the battle up entrance and forcing turnovers can be key after the Payments’ league-best 14-game streak with a takeaway ended final Sunday. “They do an excellent job, specifically within the play-action recreation and display recreation,” coach Sean McDermott mentioned of the Lions.
Security Taylor Rapp (neck) and cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) are coping with accidents, which might be key absences for this matchup.
