It seems like Nathan Eovaldi made the correct determination. Up to now this offseason, the pitching market has been a lot hotter than projected, and because the Winter Conferences kicked into excessive gear in Dallas on Tuesday, that development continued. The 34-year-old right-hander won’t remorse for a second declining his $20 million participant choice with the Rangers. After signing a two-year, $34 million contract (plus that choice) earlier than the 2023 season, Eovaldi will stay in Texas on a model new three-year, $75 million deal. That $25 million common annual worth far outstrips the projections of $16 million by Ben Clemens, $20 million from our readers, and $22 million from MLB Commerce Rumors. As Nick Deeds famous for MLBTR, Eovaldi is barely the third pitcher previously 15 years to signal a deal for greater than two years that begins in his age-35 season or later.
Talking of pitchers who’re sufficiently old to recollect the band the Wallflowers, the Texas rotation options an terrible lot of them. Eovaldi rejoins Jon Grey, Tyler Mahle, and Cody Bradford, together with no matter presumably small, magnificent portion of a season Jacob deGrom can present. For those who’re retaining monitor at dwelling, the common age of these pitchers is 32.28 years. Bradford is the infant, as he’ll be a young 27 when the season begins. Dane Dunning, who took a step again final season (and turns 30 the week after subsequent), may also be out there. The rotation might additionally get an infusion of youth from Kumar Rocker, who completely annihilated the minors and pitched nicely in three massive league begins through the 2024 season, and Jack Leiter, who struggled mightily in 9 massive league appearances.
Which may simply be sufficient beginning pitching depth to make it by means of the season, however – aside from free brokers Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer – the Rangers are working again a rotation that completed the season ranked twenty second in WAR and twenty first in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Even of their championship 2023 season, the Rangers ranked simply 18th in all 4 of these metrics. And it’s not as in the event that they’re clearly due for an enormous bounce-back 12 months. If that group goes to meaningfully enhance, it’ll imply deGrom staying wholesome and both Rocker or Leiter making that final massive bounce, and neither of these propositions is what you’d contemplate a positive factor. Eovaldi is a confirmed big-game pitcher with a 3.05 profession ERA and a 9-3 document within the postseason. (In fact, if the Rangers hope to avail themselves of that ability set, they’ll have to exit and discover roughly one total bullpen’s value of relievers, however that’s a dialog for a special day).
Eovaldi’s bread and butter is a unbelievable splitter, which he has been leaning on increasingly more every of the final 4 seasons. In 2024, the pitch was as much as a 31% utilization price and it was as efficient as ever. Over the previous three seasons, Statcast has the pitch value 16 runs, making it the Twentieth-most beneficial offspeed pitch in baseball. Eovaldi additionally depends on a strong cutter and the occasional breaking pitch, and though the stuff fashions are unanimous of their disdain for his four-seamer, the pitch has carried out nicely and its 95.4-mph common velocity remains to be above the league common. He offers up much more laborious contact than any pitcher needs to be snug with, however he induces loads of chases and groundouts, avoiding walks and hanging out sufficient batters to get by. In 2024, his ERA ballooned from 2.97 within the first half to 4.81 within the second half, however the underlying numbers regarded pretty related.
Maintaining Eovaldi round might not increase the rotation’s ceiling all that a lot, nevertheless it actually reinforces the ground. In 2024, his 170.2 innings and 29 begins made him the one certified Rangers pitcher, and his 3.80 ERA (which matched his 3.83 FIP practically completely) ranked second among the many workforce’s starters, behind Bradford. Over the 2 years of his earlier deal, Eovaldi’s 5.1 WAR led the Rangers, with Grey and Heaney the one different pitchers above 2.0. Over the previous 5 seasons, Eovaldi’s 12.7 WAR ranks Twentieth amongst all starters, and he’s additionally been a top-30 starter by way of each innings pitched and video games began. The final time Eovaldi ran an xFIP above 4.00 or a DRA- above 100 was 2019. All of that is to say that by way of efficiency, Eovaldi is likely one of the most constant pitchers round, and for a Rangers workforce that’s so depending on the supply of deGrom and the emergence of Rocker and Leiter, consistency is a beneficial commodity. For those who set his age apart, there’s no cause to count on Eovaldi’s efficiency to instantly deteriorate.
Sadly, nothing lasts ceaselessly. The Rangers don’t have the luxurious of setting Eovaldi’s age apart, and consistency isn’t nearly efficiency. Eovaldi carries his personal important damage danger. He has already had two Tommy John surgical procedures, and previously three seasons, he’s missed time as a consequence of each shoulder irritation and a forearm pressure, two physique elements that set alarm bells ringing within the thoughts of any baseball fan. He’s surpassed 27 begins simply thrice in his 13-year profession, and he’s now below contract by means of his age-37 season. Mix that damage historical past with the danger of easy age-based decline, and abruptly, the possibilities that Eovaldi pitches three full, wholesome seasons at his present efficiency degree look fairly small.
The Rangers are actually conscious of these dangers, however Eovaldi ranked seventeenth on our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist for a cause, and moreover, you attempt going out and discovering a pitcher who carries no damage danger. Eovaldi is coming off two seasons wherein he put up 2.4 and a pair of.7 WAR, and made his second All-Star recreation. He additionally went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA through the Rangers’ 2023 championship run, clinching the World Sequence with six scoreless innings in Recreation 5. There’s rather a lot to love within the satan they know.
