The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have been residing a charmed life all season. Coming into Sunday evening’s sport towards the Los Angeles Chargers, the two-time defending Tremendous Bowl champions had already set an NFL report with victories in 14 straight one-score video games. And their level differential of +54 was the worst of any 11-1 crew in professional soccer historical past.
Sunday evening was extra of the identical. The Chiefs received out to a 13-0 lead, and it appeared for a cut up second that, for as soon as, they might win a sport comfortably. Then, the Chargers got here again, and there have been three lead modifications within the fourth quarter – all on discipline objectives. The sport-winner was solely typical for the Chiefs this season: a 31-yard try by backup kicker Matthew Wright, who’s in for the injured Harrison Butker. Wright’s try hooked left, and appeared for all of the world that it might preserve hooking left, leaving Andy Reid’s crew on the flawed finish of a 17-16 rating.
However as a result of that is the 2024 Chiefs, the ball doinked off the left upright, rebounded to the correct and the Chiefs gained 19-17.
Per OPTAStats, Wright was the third Chiefs kicker this season to make a game-winning discipline aim as time expired in a sport – Wright right here, Butker towards the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, and Spencer Shrader towards the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. No different NFL crew has ever had multiple kicker achieve this in an everyday season in NFL historical past.
Now, the 12-1 Chiefs have the worst level differential for any crew ever with that report (+56), they usually’ve prolonged their all-time streak of 15 straight wins in one-score video games.
If the Chiefs had been pretty much as good as you’d count on a Tremendous Bowl champion to be, this might nonetheless be ridiculous – the sorts of factor Invoice Belichick’s New England Patriots received away with (legally and in any other case) for the higher a part of 20 years. However, at the very least on the floor, this Chiefs crew is weaker than those that gained Tremendous Bowls in three of the final 5 seasons.
The Chiefs have been biking by means of beginning operating backs, receivers, and offensive tackles this season. Steve Spagnuolo’s protection, which was the first purpose Kansas Metropolis even received to final yr’s Tremendous Bowl, has fallen off a cliff of late as a consequence of accidents and personnel points. And nonetheless, when all the pieces counts, there are 31 NFL groups left questioning simply what black magic the Chiefs received themselves into, and the place they will get some themselves.
It’s time to look underneath the hood and see what’s powering the Chiefs’ run.
Patrick Mahomes’s chemistry with Travis Kelce
Kelce is in his twelfth NFL season, and the attrition exhibits. He’s not as quick or bodily dominant as he was once. However the mind-meld he has constructed over time with Mahomes, who’s now in his eighth season, exhibits up over and over in pivotal moments. After the win over the Chargers, Andy Reid highlighted one play that swung issues within the Chiefs’ course. With two minutes left within the sport, Kansas Metropolis had the ball on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. It was third-and-seven, and whereas Wright might need made the game-winner from that discipline place anyway, the Chiefs had one other concern – they needed to run the clock down in order that the Chargers wouldn’t have an opportunity to attain once more.
The unique play gave Mahomes the choice to throw the ball to operating again Samaje Perine, or run the ball himself. However when the Chargers dropped into inverted Cowl-2 – by which the cornerbacks drop again to take security tasks – Mahomes noticed another choice, and that was to hit Kelce for a brief completion of 9 yards, one thing he did with ease. Mahomes then knelt twice to bleed the clock down, and Reid referred to as the timeout with one second left earlier than Wright made the game-winning kick.
The Chiefs anticipated the Chargers to return after them on the Mahomes go to Travis Kelce with 2:00 left within the sport. As a substitute, they dropped into Invert-2, and Mahomes threw out the RB Flat/QB Run choices. He had Kelce on the sit route. That arrange the game-winning DOINK. pic.twitter.com/aZ1xaumGHs
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 9, 2024
“I imply, I’ve belief in Pat making these sorts of performs,” Reid stated. “He sort of stated that earlier than the play, simply … ‘I’ll make one thing occur.’”
As ordinary, Mahomes did. And these performs are about greater than random schoolyard soccer. Whenever you do it this usually and this persistently, it’s actually about two all-time nice gamers who know one another’s minds, and a head coach who believes in them.
The Chiefs are ridiculously good on third down
Talking of profitable conversions, as inconsistent because the Chiefs have been on either side of the ball, they’ve the NFL’s most dominant offense on third down, which permits them to maintain drives regardless of the near-total absence of explosive performs. Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) is a metric that measures how nicely a crew performs in comparison with expectations on a play-to-play foundation. This season, the Chiefs rank twelfth in offensive EPA per play on first down (-0.01), seventeenth on second down (-0.08), and first on third down (+0.29).
What does that imply in a sensible sense? The Chiefs have had 194 third downs this season, they usually’ve transformed 101 into firsts. That conversion fee of 52.1% is the NFL’s greatest. And it confirmed up on that game-winning drive towards the Chargers. With 4:20 left, the Chiefs had third-and-10 at their very own 40-yard line after two straight Mahomes incompletions. Right here, the Chargers dropped into Cowl-3 (zone with a single-high security), and despatched a four-man rush at Mahomes with defenders in all the correct locations in protection. After all, Mahomes placed on his wizard hat, and countered with an unreal 14-yard completion to Xavier Worthy.
Oh, and there’s extra: the Chiefs rank third in offensive EPA per play on fourth down (+1.46, behind solely the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Payments), when issues go that far.
Steve Spagnuolo has gone utterly old-school
This previous offseason, the Chiefs traded prime cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, and moved Trent McDuffie from main slot defender (the place he was in all probability the NFL’s greatest at his place) to extra of an out of doors function. There have been accidents and rising pains because of this, and the transition is a main purpose Kansas Metropolis’s protection has regressed mightily. Since Week 10, solely the Cincinnati Bengals have ranked decrease defensively in FTN’s opponent-adjusted effectivity metrics.
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How has Spagnuolo responded? By going all the way in which again to the Sixties and Seventies, when zone defenses had been comparatively new in professional soccer, and aggressive press protection was the order of the day. This season, the Chiefs have had at the very least one cornerback in press protection on 88% of their snaps, by far the NFL’s highest fee, and the NFL’s highest fee since 2021, when Spagnuolo’s Chiefs pressed at the very least one receiver 90% of the time.
Cornerbacks who play that a lot press protection are vulnerable to getting overwhelmed extra usually, as a result of there’s no room to get well earlier than participating the receiver. However Spags doesn’t care, and whereas numerous defensive coaches can be extra more likely to again off, that isn’t the case right here. On Monday, the Chiefs signed Steven Nelson, the veteran cornerback who retired after the 2023 season, and has been one of many league’s higher press cornerbacks.
Overlook doubling down; the Chiefs are going exponential right here. And we’ve seen Spags put all of it collectively on the proper time earlier than. In reality, we noticed it final season once they gained the Tremendous Bowl.
Final Christmas, the Chiefs determined they’d had sufficient of this rubbish
Per NFL Analysis, it’s not uncommon to win by the smallest of increments. So perhaps it’s the league that’s bending to the Chiefs’ curve versus the opposite means round.
Seven video games in Week 14 had been determined by six or fewer factors. The Chiefs, the Detroit Lions, and the Miami Dolphins gained on the ultimate performs of their video games. In reality, 99 video games this season have been determined by six or fewer factors, probably the most by means of Week 14 in NFL historical past.
The league at all times desires as a lot parity as doable, and that’s definitely taking place now. It’s solely becoming that the champs are the personification of such. However as Chiefs CEO Clark Hunt remembered after the Fees win, it hasn’t at all times been this manner.
“I’m definitely glad that we’ve ended up on the successful facet of these video games,” Hunt stated. “As we’ve been going by means of it, I’ve thought lots about final yr the place we had numerous shut video games they usually tended to go the opposite means. We actually had a difficult stretch.”
Earlier than their wonderful streak started, the Chiefs had been 4-5 in one-score video games in 2023. The final Kansas Metropolis loss in that kind of sport got here on Christmas Day 2023, a 20-14 deficit in favor of the inferior Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas Metropolis gave up two defensive touchdowns, and made all of the errors they haven’t made since with turnovers, missed discipline objectives, and terrible third-down effectivity (5 of 16).
The Chiefs had been embarrassed and pissed off, and there was one thing transformative about that debacle. Or perhaps they only went from being unfortunate – dropping shut video games in 2023 – to fortunate – successful shut video games in 2024. It is also, because the poet John Milton first stated, that “Luck is the residue of design.” They’ve the remainder of the season to additional show how a lot design is behind all that luck.
Will the development proceed?
It’s not that the Chiefs have been doing all this voodoo towards chumps. Their schedule thus far has been center of the pack so far as opponent-adjusted power, and that may proceed by means of the remainder of the common season.
Maybe the sternest take a look at within the common season will come on Christmas Day, when the Chiefs journey to Pittsburgh to fulfill the 10-3 Steelers, who’re greater than able to dominating on either side of the ball with a stern protection, and Russell Wilson taking part in just like the Russell Wilson of previous. Possibly the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, or Denver Broncos (who already misplaced to the Chiefs 16-14 in Week 10 on a last-second blocked discipline aim) may give you a efficiency that engenders a fluke win. However we’re attending to the purpose the place we gained’t be utterly shocked if these guys run the desk.
Additionally, the Chiefs clinched the AFC West after their win over the Chargers, they usually’re the convention’s No 1 seed. Which implies that if all the pieces stays the place it’s, the highway to the Tremendous Bowl will undergo Arrowhead Stadium, one thing no crew within the NFL desires exterior Kansas Metropolis. Even the Buffalo Payments, the one crew at hand the Chiefs a loss this season – a 30-21 sport in Week 11 – did so on their very own house turf.
It’s yet one more instance of the Chiefs’ “luck” that’s excess of simply luck. Will the Chiefs wrestle within the postseason with out an uptick in efficiency in at the very least one class? Positive, however while you issue within the tangibles and the intangibles, it might be extraordinarily unwise to guess towards them, irrespective of how susceptible they might look.
