The Tigers lately tried to increase reigning AL Cy Younger award winner Tarik Skubal, in keeping with a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, however Petzold suggests the supply from Detroit was not aggressive and the edges in the end didn’t come near hammering out a deal.
It’s definitely comprehensible that Detroit would have curiosity in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re starting to enter their aggressive window and have simply two years of group management remaining earlier than Skubal can depart in free company. With that being mentioned, Skubal is a consumer of Scott Boras, who sometimes encourages his gamers to check free company to maximise worth, and the lefty has loads of leverage coming off a 2024 season that noticed him win the AL Triple Crown and grow to be the membership’s first Cy Younger award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That’s to not say an extension is inconceivable, nonetheless. A handful of high-profile Boras purchasers, together with Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have beforehand signed extensions with their golf equipment previous to testing free company. And there’s definitely precedent for Cy Younger-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as nicely. The Tigers famously signed future Corridor of Famer Justin Verlander to 2 extensions throughout his 13 years in Detroit, the primary being a five-year, $80M contract that purchased out his ultimate two arbitration years and three free agent years previous to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed previous to the 2013 season that lined the 2015-19 seasons and assured Verlander a further $140M.
Whereas Verlander’s first contract stands as a reasonably simple comparability level to Skubal on condition that the lefty can also be two years away from free company and Verlander had simply completed third in AL Cy Younger award voting previous to the deal being signed, that deal is a decade and a half previous at this level and costs across the league have risen significantly since then. Verlander’s second extension might function a extra correct level of comparability when discussing the potential of one other Cy Younger winner extending his stick with the Tigers given the high-end offers gamers comparable to Gerrit Cole (9 years, $324M), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245M), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5M) have signed over the previous decade.
Maybe the most effective comparability for Skubal’s state of affairs may be present in right-hander Jacob deGrom. deGrom signed an extension with the Mets previous to the 2019 season that lined the 2020-23 seasons. The deal assured him $120.5M in new cash and included a membership choice for 2024 that would have raised the whole assure to $153M over 5 years. Extra importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the chance to decide out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a really related state of affairs to the one Skubal and the Tigers discover themselves in now. deGrom was simply two years from free company and had secured his first profession Cy Younger award on the heels of an otherworldly season that noticed him publish a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of labor.
That season was much more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom on the time had a a lot much less checkered harm historical past than Skubal at the moment does. Whereas these components might recommend that deGrom’s deal should be a goal for the lefty to shoot for, he has one main issue on his aspect that would considerably increase his incomes energy past even that of deGrom: age. Skubal simply turned 28 on Nov. 20 whereas deGrom was practically three years older throughout his Cy Younger-winning age-30 season again 2018. In different phrases, Skubal just isn’t solely youthful now than deGrom was on the time of his extension, however he’ll truly nonetheless be youthful than deGrom was on the time of the deal when he’s slated to achieve free company following the 2026 season.
With the ability to market an age-30 season in free company is a big increase to a participant’s total worth on the open market, significantly for pitchers. Cole’s large nine-year take care of the Yankees got here previous to his age-29 season, suggesting {that a} $300M payday could possibly be a stretch for Skubal, however Strasburg was a yr older than Skubal can be upon reaching free company when he secured his $245M contract on the open market and had a equally checkered harm historical past to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the many worst contracts in latest reminiscence as a consequence of subsequent harm woes, which might make golf equipment skeptical of replicating it, nevertheless it’s simple to think about Skubal touchdown a deal north of $200M ought to he attain free company through the 2026-27 offseason.
That’s a hefty price ticket for the Tigers to take care of, nevertheless it’s definitely possible they may put a compelling supply on the desk. In spite of everything, the membership has simply two gamers signed to assured contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith gained’t make greater than $5.3M yearly till and until his membership choice for the 2030 season is picked up, whereas Baez’s $23.3M AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a membership that was in a position to afford hefty annual salaries to each Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade in the past, it must be pretty manageable to commit an AAV within the $25-30M vary to Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8M wage by way of arbitration this yr, and would presumably be in line for a wholesome increase subsequent winter as nicely. If the Tigers had been keen to ensure Skubal a mixed $25M for his ultimate two journeys via arbitration, then maybe a seven-year, $175M extension might make sense for either side. Such a deal would assure Skubal a complete payday via his age-34 season that approaches the $200M assure he might hope to land in free company, whereas permitting the Tigers to lock up their ace via his prime years. It’s additionally doable that Skubal might take a web page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some complete assure in an effort to get a second chunk on the apple within the type of an opt-out, maybe following his age-32 season in 2029.
