You really can’t make these things up. Again in December, the Padres had been concerned within the greatest commerce of the offseason, sending Juan Soto to the Yankees in return for a heaping serving to of pitching prospects. It’s the sort of commerce you make if you’ve missed out in your purpose, a basic try to show a nasty state of affairs into an OK one. Whenever you commerce among the best handful of gamers in baseball for some dudes most individuals outdoors of New York have by no means heard of, it’s pretty simple to guess your workforce’s trajectory.
However, uh, don’t inform A.J. Preller that. On Wednesday, the Padres made their second blockbuster of the winter, this one headed in the other way: They acquired Dylan Stop from the Chicago White Sox in change for Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and Steven Wilson, as Mark Feinsand first reported.
That is wild stuff. It’s so laborious to get a participant like Soto in your workforce; you probably have him, and also you’re attempting to make the playoffs, there’s virtually by no means a great purpose to maneuver him. In the event you do transfer him, you’re most likely rebuilding, although, not turning round and utilizing a type of identical prospects you bought within the first deal so as to add a brand new star. The Padres, man.
Let’s give San Diego the advantage of the doubt on this one, although, and attempt to stroll by way of what the workforce is considering right here. It’s no secret that its pitching employees is in tatters. Three of its prime 5 starters from final season – the highest three by WAR, the truth is – left in free company, leaving solely Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove as holdovers. The Padres added Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito, and Thorpe within the Soto commerce, and kind of deliberate on making them the again half of the rotation. Earlier than the Stop commerce, we had been projecting that foursome to ship 385 innings value of beginning pitching along with serving to out the bullpen.
Astute baseball observers will observe that the majority of these pitchers did not make an impression on a Yankees workforce that hardly broke .500. King appears to be like like the actual deal, however the remainder of them could be extra initiatives than fast fixes. That wasn’t precisely promising, contemplating San Diego went 82–80 final 12 months after which received worse on the plate – no Soto – and on the mound.
Enter Stop, who brings considerably improves the rotation. Whether or not he’s an ace relies upon closely in your definition of ace, however he’s inarguably a great beginning pitcher. Over the previous three years, he’s averaged 32 begins, 175 innings, and 4 WAR. That’s a top-10 pitching line, and his peripherals largely match the headline numbers, so it’s not like he’s been doing it with smoke and mirrors.
That’s to not say that Stop all the time appears to be like like an ace. He’s kind of a right-handed Blake Snell, all strikeouts and walks due to a killer slider and the deep counts that include such a pitch. He enhances that slider with a quick however not overpowering four-seamer; the pitch has performed down all through his profession whilst he’s executed appreciable work to alter its form, including almost three inches of vertical motion since his main league debut.
Each at-bat towards Stop comes right down to hitters attempting their hardest to hit that fastball, as a result of in the event that they swing at his slider, they’ll possible go dwelling unfulfilled. Barely half of the swings towards his slider even make contact. Batters have had higher luck towards his curveball, which he merely can’t manipulate just like the slider; it’s solely there as a result of he shouldn’t precisely throw solely fastballs and sliders, and he hardly ever makes use of his changeup. The purpose is that Stop is nice, and in a Snellian means, however not fairly nearly as good.
That’s not precisely faint reward. Snell simply received the Cy Younger, in any case, and he’s been among the best within the recreation for some time now, even when his video games is usually a chore to observe at instances due to all of the deep counts. By buying and selling for Stop, the Padres have gotten their rotation again, roughly, to the place it was final 12 months, with a strong prime 5 however not a ton of depth behind it.
One of many causes there’s no depth is that they simply despatched plenty of it to the White Sox. High-100 prospects Thorpe and Iriarte headline the return, and I’m going to borrow liberally from Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin’s latest High 100 publish in describing them. Thorpe has bounced across the league this offseason particularly as a result of he’s so fascinating. He made his professional debut in 2023 and flat out wrecked opposing lineups with an untouchable changeup. He’s a command over stuff man, changeup however, with glorious management of the zone and an in depth arsenal of decent-but-not-great pitches. Eric and Tess in contrast him to Jeremy Hellickson and Marco Estrada, two guys who had been above common pitchers at their peak regardless of underwhelming velocity and breaking balls. He has a strong flooring due to that one elite pitch and good command; hitting his ceiling will most likely contain discovering one other out pitch sooner or later.
Iriarte is extra of a contemporary pitching prospect. He touches 100 together with his fastball and throws a giant sweeping slider that enhances the fastball properly. He’s a tall drink of water, listed at 6’2” and 160 kilos, and he boasts premium arm pace in a supply that made Eric and Tess describe him as “like watching Slender Man throw 97.” He’s virtually a reverse Thorpe. It’s simple to think about how this may not work out, as a result of he doesn’t have sufficient command in the meanwhile; we’re simply projecting enchancment there primarily based on his clear bodily expertise. If he can harness his two devastating pitches, although, be careful. In a short cameo at Double-A final 12 months, he threw 29.1 innings and struck out 51 batters. His stuff is not any joke.
Zavala is rather a lot additional off than the opposite two prospects on this deal. He turned 19 final July, and spent many of the season within the Cal League earlier than a short, tough stretch with Excessive-A Fort Wayne. His floor numbers are spectacular and he will get on base a ton, however per Eric, his contact fee and swing are causes to fret. His swing path makes him prone to excessive fastballs, and he had some fairly anemic contact information within the first half of the 12 months, although he rebounded a bit there because the season went on. Eric considers him a high-risk prospect, with loads of expertise but in addition loads of questions but to be answered about his swing.
(All three prospects will quickly be added to the White Sox prospect report.)
That leaves Wilson, positively the odd man out within the deal. The opposite three are guys the White Sox can hope will likely be a part of their subsequent contending workforce. Wilson has spent two straight years as a center reliever in San Diego, which makes him fairly much less fascinating. However I can see what the White Sox are doing right here in getting Wilson as a throw-in. He has two excellent pitches, a slider and a mid-90s fastball with a ton of using motion. He labored a number of innings at a lot of his reduction stops within the minors, however the mixture of beginning late, lacking reps because of the pandemic-canceled minor league season, and an IL stint in 2021 meant he by no means progressed previous stretching out into beginning.
If I had been the Sox, I’d attempt to right that immediately, whether or not within the minors or the massive leagues. It may not work out, however he actually does have strong stuff; it’s only a matter of whether or not it’s going to nonetheless play as a starter. Positive, nice, it’s additionally a matter of whether or not he has the stamina to deal with starter workloads and whether or not he can develop a 3rd pitch. And likewise, sure, he wasn’t even that nice as a reliever, however we’re want casting right here, which is an applicable factor to do for a workforce bottoming out as laborious as Chicago appears to be.
So, did anybody “win” this commerce? Did each groups? Did neither? I’m actually struggling to wrap my head across the Padres aspect of issues. They primarily swapped a 12 months of Soto and two of Trent Grisham for 2 years every with King and Stop; the remainder of the gamers that modified palms largely offset, although Iriarte is one of the best of the bunch, so you’ll be able to consider it as a tiebreaker in that path. Possibly backup catcher Kyle Higashioka is the counterpoint to that tiebreaker, however in any case, the important thing components shifting are the key leaguers.
From a projection standpoint, these two sides stack up roughly equally, relying on what taking part in time you wish to allocate to Grisham. I feel it really works out higher than that for the Padres, as a result of they badly wanted beginning pitching, however not that significantly better. Their outfield state of affairs is really dire; Jurickson Profar appeared cooked final 12 months en path to a -2 WAR season, and he’s their beginning left fielder. Their beginning middle fielder is shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill, who first performed the outfield in late 2023 and has 211 plate appearances above A-ball. José Azocar is prominently concerned within the outfield plan. It’s ugly on the market, is my level; San Diego has a ton of redundant depth within the infield, and but it traded outfielders away.
A few of that’s undoubtedly as a result of the Padres are lowering wage, and Soto by far has the best wage of any of the gamers concerned on this net of trades. This commerce additionally units them up for a barely longer window of competition; as an alternative of an enormous decline in workforce high quality after 2024 when Soto would have turn out to be a free agent, together with shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, they’ve two seasons earlier than they lose their two new pitchers.
I feel this transfer makes the Padres higher than they had been originally of the week, as a result of I don’t assume it made sense for them to drag off a comfortable rebuild when so a lot of their core gamers are of their prime and signed to costly contracts, however they seem like a worse workforce now than they had been final season. Their roster doesn’t scream wait ‘til subsequent 12 months, however the Padres ended up treading water on the commerce entrance, and so they misplaced a ton of excellent gamers in free company.
Possibly that’s simply what they needed to do to make payroll. We have now them comfortably beneath the primary CBT threshold with a projected $223 million luxurious tax payroll this 12 months, down from $280 million. After exceeding the tax threshold by a minuscule quantity in 2022 after which blowing previous it final 12 months, they had been due for some fairly steep penalties in the event that they didn’t discover some solution to cut back their wage outlay. Maybe a few of this maneuvering is paying for Preller’s previous misdeeds – that 2022 overage meant {dollars} over the brink this 12 months would’ve been taxed at a whopping 50%, versus 30% if the workforce had are available beneath it that 12 months — however that’s par for the course with him. He did a great job benefiting from a sticky state of affairs, however the Padres nonetheless most likely received’t make the playoffs, contemplating they play in a tricky division and our projections see them as a bottom-10 offense.
Once more, although, that’s not this deal’s fault. If the Padres actually couldn’t add wage, then Stop was the best choice out there to them, and so they received him for a bunch of gamers who weren’t integral to their plans. I’m a giant Thorpe fan within the restricted video I’ve seen of him, and Iriarte and Zavala are each definitely fascinating, however they’re dangerous profiles, and so they definitely felt misplaced on a workforce nonetheless attempting to maximise its present window of competition, earlier than Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts lose steam. From that standpoint, buying and selling the prospects is smart.
The White Sox spent all winter loudly proclaiming that they’d solely commerce Stop for a haul, and ultimately they achieved that purpose with out actually altering the trajectory of their franchise. The Reds shot down the largest rumored provide for Stop, which might have included Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, and Connor Phillips, and this package deal from the Padres feels much like me, maybe even a bit higher as a result of the White Sox are getting two 50 FV guys in Iriarte and Thorpe as an alternative of only one, Lowder. Eric and Tess are down on Zavala, however he’s definitely an fascinating piece. And Wilson? He’s only a good little add-on.
The factor is, simply because this return is akin to that one doesn’t imply it’s good. Each commerce of a marquee participant this 12 months has made one factor clear: The return on stars simply isn’t that prime. Soto, Stop, and Corbin Burnes all received traded for prospect packages that had been good however not nice. No generational future abilities modified palms in change for these All-Stars.
It’s potential that not one of the guys the White Sox acquired will ever turn out to be common regulars for them. If it weren’t for Thorpe’s excessive flooring, I’d name it fairly possible, the truth is. That isn’t the place you wish to be when buying and selling somebody this good. Stop himself came to visit to the White Sox, together with Eloy Jiménez, from the Cubs for Jose Quintana, who admittedly had 3 1/2 years of workforce management remaining as an alternative of two. However trades like that don’t actually occur anymore; groups don’t commerce top-five prospects like Jiménez, interval.
None of because of this the White Sox ought to have stored Stop. They’re going to be putrid this 12 months, and so they nonetheless would have been putrid even when they didn’t deal him. Constructing for the long run is their greatest transfer at this level, and there most likely wasn’t an even bigger return coming down the pipeline. That is what they’ve. It’s only a bummer for White Sox followers that each one they’re getting again for an important pitcher in his prime are some respectable prospects and the continued dialogue of whether or not the workforce will depart Chicago for a brand new stadium. It’s going to be a tough 12 months on the South Facet.
