INTRO: The Bucs should make a stand on Sunday. Tampa Bay’s slim playoff hopes change into even slimmer with a loss to San Francisco. With a purpose to increase the Bucs’ playoff probabilities they have to finish their three-game dropping streak and head into the much-needed bye week with a 5-5 document. A 4-6 document may imply catastrophe for Tampa Bay. The Bucs will want one other large recreation from tight finish Cade Otton, who I used to be incorrect about, and for rookie receiver Jalen McMillan to develop up. Take pleasure in this week’s SR’s Fab 5!
FAB 1. Bucs’ Push For The Playoffs Should Start NOW
I’m calling Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the 49ers a must-win recreation for the Bucs if this workforce has any likelihood of creating the playoffs this 12 months. This season will not be prefer it was in 2023 when Tampa Bay was miraculously capable of rebound from a 4-7 begin to a 9-8 end due to a 5-1 scorching streak over the remaining six video games.
The Bucs discover themselves in acquainted territory at 4-5, and so they might be 4-6 if the workforce loses its fourth straight recreation and falls to the 49ers on Sunday. However the NFC South panorama has actually modified this 12 months.
Final 12 months, the Bucs have been solely down one recreation within the division after the primary 10 video games of the 2023 marketing campaign.
2023 NFC South Standings – By way of 10 Video games
Saints 5-5 (1-1)Falcons 4-6 (2-0)Bucs 4-6 (1-1)Panthers 1-9 (0-2)
Now Tampa Bay is basically three video games behind Atlanta – two video games plus the truth that the Falcons personal the head-to-head tiebreaker by advantage of a season sweep. Which means the Bucs would wish to complete with yet one more win than the Falcons to win a fourth straight NFC South title this 12 months.
2024 NFC South Standings – By way of 10 Video games
Falcons 6-3 (4-0)Bucs 4-5 (1-2)Panthers 2-7 (1-2)Saints 2-7 (1-3)
Merely put, the Bucs can’t afford to lose too many extra video games due to the outlet they’ve put themselves in, particularly with the 6-3 Falcons having a 4-0 document within the division. If Atlanta finishes with 9 wins, Tampa Bay will want 10 to win the NFC South. If the Falcons win 10 video games, the Bucs might want to win 11 to retain divisional supremacy and host a Wild Card recreation once more.
A win in opposition to the 49ers is a wanted step in that route.
“I do know that all of us hate dropping, and that’s one thing we talked about within the locker room after, you recognize, don’t get used to this,” Bucs tight finish Cade Otton stated. “We all know we’re able to enjoying at a excessive stage. We all know we will beat the very best groups within the league, and we see ourselves as being up there. We simply need to show it – now we have to search out methods to win. There’s an urgency there, however we’re not breaking up or something. We’re not pointing fingers. We’re simply going again to work and doing something we will to discover a option to win.”
FAB 2. A Victory Over 49ers Helps Bucs’ Pursuit Of A Wild Card Spot
Regardless of a 4-5 document, three of the Bucs’ 5 losses have come in opposition to AFC groups just like the Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs. Tampa Bay does have a 4-2 document within the NFC, which is kind of good, however the workforce actually must win all six NFC video games down the stretch, together with Sunday’s recreation in opposition to San Francisco to assist its probabilities of claiming certainly one of three Wild Card playoff spots.
Here’s a have a look at the present NFC playoff contenders.
Present NFC Division Leaders
East: Commanders 7-2West: Cardinals 5-4North: Lions 7-1South: Falcons 6-3
There are at the moment eight groups with 4 wins or extra vying for 3 Wild Card spots within the NFC. The excellent news for the Bucs is that that Tampa Bay has head-to-head wins over Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit from the primary month of the season.
Present NFC Wild Card Contenders
Vikings 6-2Eagles 6-2Packers 6-3Bears 4-4Rams 4-449ers 4-4Bucs 4-5Seahawks 4-5
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA As we speak
So, if the Bucs are tied with any of these three groups for a playoff spot, they maintain the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Falcons, after all, maintain the head-to-head tiebreaker benefit over the Bucs attributable to their season sweep of Tampa Bay this season.
That’s why Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the 49ers is so large for Todd Bowles’ troops. Not solely is it the opportunity of gaining a head-to-head win in opposition to a workforce that Tampa Bay might be in direct competitors with for a Wild Card spot, however it could even be a possibility to safe one other NFC win in case the tiebreaker system comes right down to convention wins between the Bucs and one other NFC workforce.
And a victory over the 49ers additionally ends a three-game dropping streak, provides Tampa Bay some revenge for the 2 losses in San Francisco over the previous two years, will get the Bucs again to .500, and supplies a morale increase heading into the bye week.
In case you’re questioning, right here is the tie-breaker system for Wild Card Spots.
1. Head-to-head, if relevant.2. Greatest won-lost-tied proportion in video games performed throughout the convention.3. Greatest won-lost-tied proportion in widespread video games, minimal of 4.4. Power of victory in all video games.5. Power of schedule in all video games.6. Greatest mixed rating amongst convention groups in factors scored and factors allowed in all video games.7. Greatest mixed rating amongst all groups in factors scored and factors allowed in all video games.8. Greatest internet factors in convention video games.9. Greatest internet factors in all video games.10. Greatest internet touchdowns in all video games.11. Coin toss.
FAB 3. Is A Fourth-Straight NFC South Title Out Of Bucs’ Attain?
At 4-5 the Bucs aren’t mathematically out of profitable the NFC South this 12 months, however are two video games behind the 6-3 Falcons. The margin is basically three video games attributable to the truth that Atlanta has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.
So how a lot floor can the Bucs make up down the stretch, and the way a lot assist can Tampa Bay hope to get from Atlanta? Let’s have a look.
Bucs’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
Week 10 vs. 49ers 4-4Week 11 BYEWeek 12 at Giants 2-7Week 13 at Panthers 2-7Week 14 vs. Raiders 2-7Week 15 at Chargers 5-3Week 16 at Cowboys 3-5Week 17 vs. Panthers 2-7Week 18 vs. Saints 2-7
While you have a look at this schedule what number of wins do you see? What’s a practical quantity? Can the Bucs go 7-1 and end 11-6? Is ending 6-2 down the stretch with a 10-7 document sufficient to get into the playoffs this 12 months? Will Tampa Bay personal sufficient tiebreakers?
There are six groups left on Tampa Bay’s schedule with dropping information, just one workforce with a profitable document in Los Angeles, and one workforce with a .500 document in San Francisco. The Bucs have to make up three video games and end with yet one more win than the Falcons.
Let’s look at what’s left for Atlanta this season.
Falcons’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
Week 10 at Saints 2-7Week 11 at Broncos 5-4Week 12 BYEWeek 13 vs. Chargers 5-3Week 14 at Vikings 6-2Week 15 at Raiders 2-7Week 16 vs. Giants 2-7Week 17 at Commanders 7-2Week 18 vs. Panthers 2-7
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney and Bucs CB Tyrek Funderburk and ILB Okay.J. Britt – Photograph by: USA As we speak
The Falcons have 4 video games left in opposition to groups with profitable information. Suppose Atlanta loses all 4 of these video games and finishes 10-7. The Falcons would nonetheless have the tiebreaker benefit over a 10-7 Bucs workforce – ought to Tampa Bay end 6-2 down the stretch.
So even when the Falcons end 4-4, it could require the Bucs to complete 7-1 to get to 11-6, which might win the NFC South for Tampa Bay as soon as once more. That could be a Herculean feat I’m not positive this Bucs workforce is constructed for.
Do not forget that the Bucs have solely gained two video games in a row simply as soon as within the season, and that was the workforce’s 2-0 begin with wins over the Commanders and Lions. Ending 7-1 would require not less than a pair of three-game profitable streaks – three wins, a loss, after which three extra wins.
Ought to the Bucs lose to the 49ers on Sunday, Tampa Bay must win seven straight video games to complete 11-6 and seize the NFC South crown once more. Do you suppose this injury-riddled Bucs workforce that’s surrendering practically 30 factors per recreation is able to that?
Do you suppose that the damage bug goes to abruptly cease biting the Bucs and that Todd Bowles’ protection goes to magically change into good in a single day?
In case you are pointing to the sturdy finishes that Tampa Bay has had over the previous two years to win the NFC South in Week 17 (2022) and Week 18 (2023) as proof that the workforce can “do it once more,” right here is the Bucs’ document over the ultimate eight video games of every season.
Bucs’ End In 2022: 4-4 (8-9 document)Bucs’ End In 2023: 5-3 (9-8 document)
So whereas the Bucs did win 5 of their final six video games final 12 months, the truth is that they solely gained 5 of their final eight. And there are eight video games left this season.
I’m undecided that this 12 months’s banged up Bucs have it in them to complete the season 7-1. A loss to the 49ers all however ends the workforce’s hopes of profitable the division. A win, and there’s nonetheless a flicker of an opportunity – however it might need to coincide with an epic collapse by the Falcons down the stretch.
FAB 4. Cade Otton Is Making Me A Believer
There’s a excellent likelihood that Bucs tight finish Cade Otton establishes new profession highs for the season on Sunday in opposition to the 49ers. Otton is coming off a profession season wherein he caught 47 passes for 455 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2023.
The third-year professional enters Week 10 with 44 receptions for 421 yards and 4 touchdowns.
And there are seven video games left after the bye week, too.
When factoring in his season numbers, Otton is on tempo to document 83 catches for 795 yards and 7 touchdowns. However Otton is on a distinct tempo proper now as he’s change into Baker Mayfield’s main weapon now that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been sidelined attributable to accidents.
Cade Otton’s 2024 Manufacturing
Weeks 1-6: 19 catches for 163 yards, 1 TDWeek 7: 8 catches for 100 yardsWeek 8: 9 catches for 81 yards, 2 TDsWeek 9: 8 catches for 77 yards, 1 TD
Bucs TE Cade Otton and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Photograph by: USA As we speak
Utilizing his manufacturing over the past three weeks the place he has averaged eight catches for 86 yards and one landing, Otton is on tempo to complete with 66 receptions for 688 yards and eight TDs over the ultimate eight video games of the season.
Add in that projected end to his present numbers and Otton would wind up with an astounding 110 receptions for 1,109 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Mike Evans’ return after the bye week will definitely minimize into Otton’s targets and manufacturing, so a 1,000-yard season doesn’t appear lifelike. However even at half of Otton’s projected numbers down the stretch, the tight finish would end with 77 receptions for 975 yards and eight touchdowns.
Otton stated previous to the season that certainly one of his targets was to be a Professional Bowl tight finish this 12 months. Getting that sort of manufacturing will surely put him within the dialog, however Otton is extra targeted on serving to this workforce get to the playoffs somewhat than him getting within the Professional Bowl.
“I don’t [track the stats] an excessive amount of, and I do know my manufacturing has been up the previous few weeks,” Otton stated. “However the largest factor I am going again to is the win-loss column, and I’m positively not happy with the place we’ve been the final three weeks. Like I stated, we’re going to do something we will to alter that round. If my manufacturing goes down and we win, I’ll be a lot happier.”
I stated a few weeks in the past in a earlier SR’s Fab 5 {that a} playmaking tight finish is what’s lacking from Liam Coen’s offense. Otton is proving to be a playmaking tight finish for positive, and he’s altering my thoughts about him as a participant.
Nobody goes to match Otton to a extra dynamic tight finish like future Corridor of Famer Rob Gronkowski. If Otton has a fault, it’s that he’s solely averaging 9.6 yards per catch this 12 months, which is definitely according to his profession common.
Bucs TE Cade Otton and former TE Cam Brate – Photograph by: USA As we speak
However Otton is proving that he’s turning into a Cam Brate-caliber tight finish that may actually contribute within the passing recreation. Brate completed his nine-year profession in Tampa Bay in 2022 with a profession common of 10.5 yards per catch together with 33 touchdowns.
“He’s obtained a knack for the sport – he simply is aware of the sport,” Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen stated about Otton. “He has an excellent really feel. So lots of these guys would simply say that he’s a soccer participant. That’s Cade and you may’t say that about all people. He simply has that potential.
“Typically individuals have a look at that as a knock – perhaps they’re not as quick or as fast or as sturdy or can bounce as excessive. Being a soccer participant is a darn good factor and that’s what he’s. He’s powerful as nails, he’s good as heck, and I’d love for my son to develop as much as be Cade Otton. That’s the type of man that he’s.”
One factor is for positive over the past three video games, Otton has confirmed that he’s able to being a focus on offense somewhat than only a complementary piece. Having Evans return to motion after the bye week ought to permit Otton to be much more efficient with two legit weapons on the sector once more in Tampa Bay.
“Seeing the best way Mike and Chris have operated my entire time right here, I simply try to step up of their place,” Otton stated. “Clearly, they’re an enormous a part of our offense and might be every time they arrive again, however I believe simply as a gaggle, we actually challenged ourselves, and Coach Coen challenged us to, as a collective, elevate our recreation. Personally, I needed to try this, and in addition as a gaggle, I believe we’re working onerous to try this.”
FAB 5. Jalen McMillan Wants To Turn out to be A Professional
Behind the scenes, the Bucs are pissed off with rookie huge receiver Jalen McMillan. The workforce invested a third-round choose within the weapon from Washington, and anticipated him to turn into the workforce’s No. 3 receiver this 12 months after an inconsistent rookie season from Trey Palmer, a sixth-round choice, in 2023.
Bucs WRs Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
McMillan had an excellent begin to coaching camp and carried out nicely within the preseason. After dropping a catchable ball in a Week 1 win over Washington, McMillan hauled in a landing cross from Baker Mayfield versus the Commanders for his first profession reception.
However since then, it’s been a rocky highway for McMillan. He missed Weeks 4-5 with a hamstring damage after which he had the hamstring damage flare up within the ultimate apply earlier than the Chiefs recreation in Week 9. I’ve heard some whispers that McMillan isn’t doing his half in both preventative conditioning or the required rehab to get previous his hamstring damage.
Or he’s not exhibiting the requisite toughness wanted to be an NFL skilled.
Mike Evans obtained himself able to play on Monday night time in opposition to Baltimore, however suffered a setback together with his hamstring damage after catching a landing. Nonetheless, he put his physique on the road for his workforce.
Fellow veteran Sterling Shepard has been enjoying by means of a hamstring damage he suffered in opposition to the Falcons in Week 8 and caught 4 passes for 48 yards and had two end-arounds for 21 yards whereas McMillan sat out the Monday Night time Soccer recreation. Shepard has missed each practices this week as he’s nonetheless coping with his hamstring damage, however watch him nonetheless exit and play in opposition to the 49ers.
And that’s primarily what Mayfield needed to say about McMillan’s absence in Kansas Metropolis.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: USA As we speak
“I came upon within the locker room after we obtained right here, or after he did the exercise,” Mayfield stated. “We had some performs designed for him. That’s a part of being a professional, you’ve obtained to handle your physique. Typically unlucky issues occur however you’ve obtained to do all the pieces you’ll be able to to get able to play for this workforce.”
Mayfield’s phrases converse volumes – and again up all the pieces I’ve heard behind the scenes.
Tampa Bay will not be giving up on McMillan, who has underwhelmed with 10 catches for 109 yards and one landing to date. However it’s apparent that he has some rising as much as do. He’s missed each practices this week, and given his pattern, the guess right here is that he gained’t be obtainable in opposition to the 49ers.
The truth that McMillan will not be studying from the likes of veterans resembling Evans, Shepard and Chris Godwin within the receivers room is startling, although. And it’s one thing to keep watch over transferring ahead throughout McMillan’s Bucs profession.
It’s one factor that McMillan hasn’t developed into the Bucs’ No. 3 huge receiver but. It’s one other factor that he’s missed three video games attributable to not being ready to play – and probably a fourth.
